Vladimir Putin is not Hitler nor a conservative

“Russia has 1.2 million soldiers, it has one of the most modern armies in the world. By this logic, as Russia can take Kiev, Russia can take Vilnius, Riga, Tallinn, Bucharest and any other city, if we are not united.” Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko 

We should all educate ourselves about Vladimir Putin and Russia and I try to do so, by reading and speaking to people who hold pro- and anti -Putin views and better still to people who have lived in Russia. Most important of all, though, is to think.

Much is unclear but some things are clear. Vladimir Putin is not Hitler. He does not intend to recapture the former Soviet republics which became independent. He has done nothing much about this in his fifteen years in power except the short war with Georgia which brought him little benefit. He was provoked by American attempts to spread democracy and human rights to Ukraine, which played some, perhaps a crucial, part in the revolution there. Though that revolution had and has huge popular support. At times a million people are said to have been at the Maidan. In response, Mr. Putin invaded Crimea, held a rigged referendum there in which about a third of the population voted and, of course, instigated and controls the 'rebellions' in Donetsk and Luhansk. War crimes have been committed by the rebels and people on the Ukrainian side. 

Vladimir Putin is not a nice or good man. He is, as the British Ambassador in Moscow said, somewhat undiplomatically, 'a thug and a liar'. He is alleged to have people he doesn't like killed, although the evidence is circumstantial. He is not clever, but he is cunning and completely ruthless. So, of course, was Peter the Great, whom Mr. Putin resembles. Under him, Russia is to a large extent run by the former KGB, which is extremely corrupt. It forms the basis of the 'deep state', to borrow the Turkish expression, which has close links to organised crime. Much of the mafia is said to be run by former KGB men.

Russians are refreshingly lacking in political correctness, or, depending how you look at it, racist, anti-semitic homophobes. This is why the social conservatives in the West like Mr. Putin, sensing that he is one of them. He has cleverly passed a law banning homosexual propaganda in order to garner support at home and abroad. It had the unintended consequence that he thereby lost forever the sympathy of Western leftists and liberals, despite his antagonism to the USA, but you can't have everything.

There is surprisingly strong circumstantial evidence that the former KGB blew up a Moscow apartment block and blamed it on the Chechens. The bombing happened four weeks after Mr. Putin became Prime Minister in 1999.

The West should want to do a deal with Mr. Putin, but he has shown himself to be a pathological liar, so the West probably won't. We should nevertheless aim at finding a modus vivendi that does not humiliate ourselves or him, yet, while he occupies Crimea, something rather like another Cold War looks pretty likely, which is a great opportunity for China. It's also a great opportunity for the United States to hold the NATO alliance together, or, depending on how you look at it, to control Europe.

We have to do business with countries much more unpleasant than Russia, including barbaric tyrannies like Saudi Arabia and Communist dictatorships like China. But we cannot shrug our shoulders when borders, especially in Europe, are rewritten by force, because first this would be wrong and secondly this would encourage further Russian aggression.

I thought I'd post some more links I recommend.

First, let's remind ourselves of what Wikileaks told us the US Embassy was thinking in 2011 about Putin's mafia state. The leaked CIA documents yield such insights as:

• Russian spies use senior mafia bosses to carry out criminal operations such as arms trafficking.
• Law enforcement agencies such as the police, spy agencies and the prosecutor's office operate a de facto protection racket for criminal networks.
• Rampant bribery acts like a parallel tax system for the personal enrichment of police, officials and the KGB's successor, the federal security service (FSB).
• Investigators looking into Russian mafia links to Spain have compiled a list of Russian prosecutors, military officers and politicians who have dealings with organised crime networks.
• Putin is accused of amassing "illicit proceeds" from his time in office, which various sources allege are hidden overseas.

I have had Timothy Snyder very highly recommended to me by a British friend of Thatcherite politics who lived for years in Russia and Ukraine and speaks Russian well. This review of his recent book reminds us of how the Ukraine crisis started. There's not much point Mr Snyder or anyone else accusing Russians or Ukrainians of fascism, his enthusiasm for the European Union will repel some readers and it doesn't mention what contribution to the groundwork for the revolution in Kiev was laid by American NGOs. Still the article is very illuminating and captures the idealism of the people in the Maidan. 

The revolution in Kiev was an upswelling of hope and gave Ukraine a second chance to have a decent future. No doubt the new people in power will turn out to be compromised and corrupt but let's hope they pull Ukraine together. It reminds older readers of the revolutions of 1989, but these were probably arranged by the KGB not the CIA.

Here is a very interesting article by Angus Roxburgh from April about the mood in Moscow among the well to do and rich. Many Russians on Facebook - friends of friends - resemble these pro Putin nouveaux riches. I suspect they are ringing the bells now but they'll be wringing their hands soon, but no-one knows for sure.

The young, clever, idealistic people who mail journalist Ben Judah to tell him they want to leave Russia are significant but I am sure a small minority. Foreign correspondents are friends with people like themselves, which usually mean Western minded and deracinated. This is why British journalists convinced themselves ten or more years ago that Israel was becoming softer.

A Russian student I met a couple of years ago told me nonchalantly that: 

I have to admit most Russians are extreme racist. 

The Ukrainians are apparently more so, according to a recent poll. I suspect that in fact the percentages in the poll are misleadingly low. The same British friend who lived in Moscow told me

Scratch any Russian and you find an anti-Semite.

This is a very good piece by Angus Roxburgh from March, entitled

Russia's revenge: why the west will never understand the Kremlin  

and here is a recent piece by him counselling against sanctions.

Facebook is an interesting source of information and misinformation. I was struck by these comments by a foreign investment banker long resident in Moscow, a man who passionately admires both Vladimir Putin and Marine Le Pen:

Several weeks ago several of us were very worried that Russia had abandoned Novorossyia. That the proto-Fascist Kievan armies were going to be allowed to crush the resistance, that Russia would look away while war crimes were committed. that NATO's coup d'état had been allowed to succeed. How wrong we were!Mr Putin has once again shown himself to be the consummate political strategist, and played a very weak hand brilliantly, Poroshenko is neutralised, Washington humiliated and fuming, the EU confirmed in its irrelevance, and Russia has, at least, avoided the worst outcomes, and now has a leading roll to play in the establishment of the post-war order.
I am very glad I do not have to play against Vladimir Vladimirovich and I pity those who do.

While an American posted this:

Ukraine is not NATO and we need to be careful stepping into a dog fight when we don't have a dog in the fight. Russia has done more to unify Europe and Nato in last 6 months than than we have been able to accomplish in 6 years. Even France is feeling the need to act and we can expect Germany to start looking very hard for non-Russian energy and every country will be rearming now. So far this has been a big success at very little cost to the U.S.

The truth is that a democratic Ukraine is a direct threat to Mr Putin personally - so he is right that America is seeking to undermine Russia, since he naturally identifies Russia with himself. The crisis gives both Russia and America that useful thing, an external enemy against whom to rally. One has the impression, however, that most Europeans are much more angry with Israel than concerned about Russia. 

America is in relative decline, Europe is in greater decline, Russia is in still greater decline, weak and short of cash. China is rising. Perhaps 1989 was the start of the decline and fall of Western civilisation.