Saturday, 9 July 2016

Would leaving the Single Market cost less than staying in?

I am no economist nor was meant to be. Can one of my readers enlighten me please?
Is it true that under World Trade Organisation rules, if we didn’t sign a free-trade deal with the EU, we would have to pay, at most, £7.5 billion a year in tariffs for access to its markets, well below our current EU membership fee 
£8.3 billion? If so why is this not shouted from roof tops?

I took the figure of £7.5 billion from this article published in the Spectator a year ago, called "Ten myths about Brexit". It may be wrong. I know some eminent people like Nigel Lawson and Professor Patrick Minford think we should leave the Single Market. Ken Clarke in the leaked tape described such people as lunatics and David Cameron think the idea crazy.

Instead of discussing the options, the Remain voters, a minority but comprising most of the influential people in the UK are paralysed with fear - largely because of Osborne's Project Fear. According to Peter Oborne, this was a plan he hatched with the help of his friend and ally Peter Mandelson. It involved suborning the Treasury and the Bank of England both of which should be neutral.

When I think about Osborne, his acolyte Matthew D' Ancona and David Cameron it is hard to see much difference between them and Tony Blair. Teresa May is another Blairite, as is Gove.


  1. Thought you Brexiteers had this all sorted out -- that leaving the EU was going to have you wallowing in oodles of money. No?

  2. It's for Parliament to decide, anonymous, obviously. Why not leave a name, even a false one?

  3. there are a number of good articles on this, basic idea is the WTO rules do not cover services (& esp. financial services, where London has a lot to lose). Overall, of course, it is not a better deal (look at the numbers, discount for the services, etc) than that offered by the EU, but I guess that England & Wales will need two to ten years to realise this....