Monday, 24 April 2017

Marine Le Pen won't win, but if she did she'd enjoy cohabitation

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The main method of wealth acquisition in France is to wait for your parents to die. Why would you want your inheritance in devalued French France rather than Euro? Of course the French will vote for Macron. Le Pen isn't Trump and the French aren't Americans. So stop trying to translate the American experience into other countries.
David Goldman (Spengler in the Asia Times and one of the most intelligent political commentators you'll find).

I cannot imagine Marine Le Pen winning the presidency this year. I always thought she had almost no chance. I imagine she thinks the same. And if she did win I cannot imagine her party could win a majority in either chamber. In each it at present has two seats.


If she did win she'd be almost powerless. She'd have a bully pulpit but no power. But what a pulpit.


I am sure Macron, who I think is a creature of Hollande, will disappoint everyone, like Hollande has done. Then, I imagine, we shall probably see President Le Pen. 


If and when she finally does become President she will find it very hard to implement her promises of reducing immigration to 10,000 a year and leaving the Euro. She might find it much more enjoyable and useful to be a President co-habitating with a Parliament that hates her. She could blame the government for everything. 

I am not sure, though, that that would raise French prestige or influence in the world. Which is why it won't happen.

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