Thursday, 27 April 2017

Scotland will not leave the UK in my lifetime

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Support in Scotland for independence has dropped to 40%, according to the latest poll. This is still far too high but better than the 45% who voted for independence in the referendum. 

 Scotland will not leave the UK in my lifetime.

The Scots won't vote to leave the Union unless they know that the European Union will take them as a member. 


The EU's rules do not allow it to negotiate with Scotland while it is part of the UK. The EU could change its rules, but the UK can prevent the Scottish government spending a penny of public money even discussing this with the EU. 

After leaving the UK there is every chance that Romania, Belgium or Spain would veto Scotland joining because of the precedent it would create for Catalonia, Wallonia or Transylvania. 

So the Scots won't risk it. The risk of having to pay their own bills is far too great. 

Especially with oil the price it is.

David Cameron made a terrible mistake allowing the Scots a referendum and thus setting a precedent. But the SNP only pretends to want a referendum. They are sure to lose it and that would shoot their fox - shoot him dead this time. After losing two referendums the issue is closed.

The secession of Scotland would leave England to be ruled by Conservatives for quite a time and a Labour government is the biggest disaster that can befall England, but things would readjust themselves. 


On the other hand, the end of Great Britain would be disastrous for English self confidence. It would be, as Lord Selkirk, the last Lord Chancellor of Scotland, observed when the Act of Union passed the Scotch House of Lords in 1707,
'ane end of ane old song'
By the way the Scottish Nationalists aren't nationalists at all, but arch-globalists.

2 comments:

  1. Excellent apercus and insights as ever.

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  2. David in Moscow28 April 2017 at 09:54

    "Scotland will not leave the UK in my lifetime."

    Now there is a hostage to fortune ;).

    "David Cameron made a terrible mistake allowing the Scots a referendum and thus setting a precedent."

    Both referenda were terrible (political) mistakes.

    Cameron, a political chameleon, was one of our worst ever Prime Ministers.

    For him, politics appears to have been only a stepping stone to power and greater wealth.

    "The end of Great Britain would be disastrous for English self confidence."

    I disagree, I think you underrate English self-confidence and capabilities.

    But like you, I would prefer to see the Union remain intact.

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