Tuesday 17 July 2018

The biggest British political crisis since 1886

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There never was a Chinese curse 'May you live in interesting times'. Any more than Stalin asked how many divisions the Pope had or Napoleon asked of a general 'Is he lucky?' Nevertheless, Britain does live in very interesting times.

Until today, I found the question of whether Theresa May stays or goes much less interesting than what sort of Brexit takes place. Nevertheless, last night it became clear that she has lost control of the Commons and, as an anonymous minister told the Times, probably will not be able get any Brexit agreement through the House.

Our chief ally, the USA, has done its best to undermine the Prime Minister and British foreign policy. The last time this happened was when Eisenhower scuppered the Anglo-French march on the Suez Canal in 1956. On this occasion, though, America seems to have British interests at heart.


The Tories split over free trade in the first decade of the twentieth century and let the Liberals into power. Suez for a fleeting moment split the country, but it is hard to think of a political crisis as big as this one since Gladstone announced his conversion to Home Rule

for Ireland and attempted to bring it into law. 

Before that we have the splits that led to Disraeli's Reform Act in 1867 and the Tory split over Peel's decision to repeal the Corn Laws in 1846, a convulsion that kept the Tories out of power for almost thirty years, except for short lived minority governments, and the near revolutionary crisis that led to the first Reform Act in 1832. That could have led to bloodshed.

The Prime Minister's position today looks very weak but there is no-one who seems an obvious replacement for her, especially not among the Brexiteers. The cabinet and shadow cabinet are short on talent. Last month Britain's senior civil servant, Cabinet Secretary Sir Jeremy Heywood, at least temporarily stepped down because he has cancer. The Queen at 92 is sprightly, but is not getting any younger. 

I do not believe that the Union with either Scotland or Northern Ireland is in any danger, but some people assert that this is the case. 

Another referendum on Brexit, an unlikely but not impossible eventuality, would destroy faith in the idea that the people rule in Britain. Sir John Major, who claimed to have stood fast against Euro-federalism in the debates over the Maastricht treaty, but now makes no apology for defending a very much more powerful EU, said today that a referendum in the autumn is likely.

Another general election might easily lead to an extreme far left government, the first in our history, if the present minority government loses the confidence of the House. 

The Northern Irish Unionist party, the DUP, stands between Britain and disaster, but the DUP alone might not be enough to save the country.

Donald Trump, who behaved with exhiliratingly bad manners while the guest of Her Majesty's Government, was absolutely right in what he said about Nato and Brexit. Many agree with him on the negative consequences of mass immigration into Europe. However, he now looks an idiot, after his verbose and meek performance in the press conference that followed his seemingly pointless meeting with Vladimir Putin. He is an unreliable ally for Britain, even in the eyes of those (25% of people in the UK in the last poll I saw) who liked him. 

There has never been a special relationship, from the US point of view, between them and Britain but the British think there is. I am not even sure how much point there is in Britain staying in Nato but, whatever I think, the Nato alliance is at the centre of British foreign policy and it is without leadership.

Interesting times.

8 comments:

  1. Glad you have forgone your cackling delight over Trump's boorishness and have finally reckoned with what a fool and tool he is.

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    1. David in Belgrade18 July 2018 at 17:42

      @ Anon
      Conclusive evidence of US president colluding with Russians:

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MNxEDomUlXw

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    2. I now see the rapprochement with Russia as a good thing. Read my my more recent articles.

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  2. David in Belgrade18 July 2018 at 10:25

    "Our chief ally, the USA"
    The US always acts in accordance with Lord Palmerston's principle:
    "We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow."

    https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Henry_Temple,_3rd_Viscount_Palmerston

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    1. Not really true - not when it comes to Israel, for one thing. The USA ceased to be the republic that the Constitution intended when Lincoln went to war with the South, became less a republic under the two Roosevelts, acquired a colonial empire and after 1945 another empire in Europe to protect Europe from herself and Communism. That is why they pay the lion's share for Nato. Trump is not interested in European dominance, which serves little purpose.

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  3. “However, he now looks an idiot, after his verbose and meek performance in the press conference that followed his seemingly pointless meeting with Vladimir Putin. “

    Not sure which press conference you were watching. 71% of Republican voters approved of Trump’s handling of Russia in a Reuters poll taken after the Putin-Trump summit. Unless you’re a globalist or a senile baby boomer wanting to relive the Cold War, Trump’s meeting with Putin was pretty positive.

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    1. I changed my mind and see this as a Nixon in China in reverse. See more recent posts.

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  4. "Donald Trump, who behaved with exhiliratingly bad manners while the guest of Her Majesty's Government, was absolutely right in what he said about Nato and Brexit. Many agree with him on the negative consequences of mass immigration into Europe. However, he now looks an idiot, after his verbose and meek performance in the press conference that followed his seemingly pointless meeting with Vladimir Putin."

    Oh, come on! It was Trump being Trump. He bumbles along, as he has since the beginning. It was obviously not a pointless meeting, as it caused mass hysteria on the Left. That, in itself, was a good and important result. The crazier they get, the better it is. He makes their evil lunacy obvious for the American public.

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