Is this the best you can come up with? Self-determination is not and certainly should not be what the current world order is based on -and in any case Shia rule in Iraq is a victory for self-determination, a victory achieved by George W Bush. Assad is also preferred by his people to the rebels insofar as we can judge - though it is important that no democratic election be held in Syria that could overturn what at last looks like peace. Syria has been a Russian satellite since the 1960s so Russia has her support and a nice naval base. The West has demonstrated to destruction point that it cannot control the Middle East and I pray that Mr Trump does not want to.
WASHINGTON – U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that as far as he’s concerned, Iran "can do what they want" in Syria.
Trump made the comment during a conversation with reporters at the end of a cabinet meeting in the White House. “Iran is pulling people out of Syria, but they can frankly do whatever they want there,” the U.S. president said.
"We want to protect the Kurds but I don’t want to be in Syria forever. It's sand and it's death," Trump added.
In the world of oil, it’s hard to compartmentalize complex geopolitical conflicts. In condemning the Trump administration’s move, Iran’s hardliners actually accused the United States of withdrawing from the JCPOA to raise the price of oil and called on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to raise its production to resist the United States. In a tweet from the Iranian Oil ministry via @VezaratNaft on May 11, Iranian oil minister Bijan Namdar Zangemeh is quoted as saying “President Trump playing double game in oil market. Some OPEC members playing into U.S. hands. U.S. seeking to boost shale oil production.”
The curtailment again of international investment in its natural gas industry is a bigger setback for Tehran, which needs natural gas not only to inject into its oil fields to drive production but also for residential and commercial use. If the United States manages to drive French firm Total back out of the important South Pars natural gas venture, the chances of Iran reestablishing itself as a major liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter dissipates once again, possibly this time for decades given potential U.S. exports and other market conditions.
Russia could similarly be unwilling to agree to conflict resolution in Yemen and Syria because of the benefit it enjoys from keeping Saudi Arabia under financial and political pressure. Riyadh’s economic pressures, driven in part from its high military spending in Yemen, have made Saudi Arabia all the more willing to collaborate with Moscow on managing oil markets—a geopolitical reality that has strengthened Russia’s global standing significantly.
Even if the economic penalty of the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions were sufficient to motivate Iran back to the negotiating table, it remains unclear to what extent Tehran can influence its own proxies who have independent goals that could not align fully with any conflict resolution deal Iran could strike with the United States and its allies. Moreover, it is similarly unclear whether the United States could draw Saudi Arabia into a workable political settlement for Yemen. Thus, while the United States could have a strategy in mind that could improve upon the status quo in the Middle East, a deeper dive into the energy realpolitik of the matter shows the complexities that stand in the way of progress.
To play devils advocate.
ReplyDeleteIt means that Russia/Iran get extra votes in all international organisations.
It means that they can use these countries to wage proxy wars or terrorist actions and as training bases.
It would give them naval and air bases in places they do not already have them.
It would demonstrate that the West has neither the power nor the will to stop it.
It would be a direct threat to the idea that independence means self determination. Which the current international order is based off.
Mark Moncrieff
Is this the best you can come up with? Self-determination is not and certainly should not be what the current world order is based on -and in any case Shia rule in Iraq is a victory for self-determination, a victory achieved by George W Bush. Assad is also preferred by his people to the rebels insofar as we can judge - though it is important that no democratic election be held in Syria that could overturn what at last looks like peace. Syria has been a Russian satellite since the 1960s so Russia has her support and a nice naval base. The West has demonstrated to destruction point that it cannot control the Middle East and I pray that Mr Trump does not want to.
ReplyDeleteMr. Wood
DeleteWhich part of devils advocate do you not understand?
Mark Moncrieff
January 08, 2019.
ReplyDeleteShvat 2, 5779
WASHINGTON – U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that as far as he’s concerned, Iran "can do what they want" in Syria.
Trump made the comment during a conversation with reporters at the end of a cabinet meeting in the White House. “Iran is pulling people out of Syria, but they can frankly do whatever they want there,” the U.S. president said.
"We want to protect the Kurds but I don’t want to be in Syria forever. It's sand and it's death," Trump added.
https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/iran/iran-can-do-what-they-want-in-syria-trump-says-1.6805949
In the world of oil, it’s hard to compartmentalize complex geopolitical conflicts. In condemning the Trump administration’s move, Iran’s hardliners actually accused the United States of withdrawing from the JCPOA to raise the price of oil and called on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to raise its production to resist the United States. In a tweet from the Iranian Oil ministry via @VezaratNaft on May 11, Iranian oil minister Bijan Namdar Zangemeh is quoted as saying “President Trump playing double game in oil market. Some OPEC members playing into U.S. hands. U.S. seeking to boost shale oil production.”
ReplyDeleteThe curtailment again of international investment in its natural gas industry is a bigger setback for Tehran, which needs natural gas not only to inject into its oil fields to drive production but also for residential and commercial use. If the United States manages to drive French firm Total back out of the important South Pars natural gas venture, the chances of Iran reestablishing itself as a major liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter dissipates once again, possibly this time for decades given potential U.S. exports and other market conditions.
Russia could similarly be unwilling to agree to conflict resolution in Yemen and Syria because of the benefit it enjoys from keeping Saudi Arabia under financial and political pressure. Riyadh’s economic pressures, driven in part from its high military spending in Yemen, have made Saudi Arabia all the more willing to collaborate with Moscow on managing oil markets—a geopolitical reality that has strengthened Russia’s global standing significantly.
Even if the economic penalty of the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions were sufficient to motivate Iran back to the negotiating table, it remains unclear to what extent Tehran can influence its own proxies who have independent goals that could not align fully with any conflict resolution deal Iran could strike with the United States and its allies. Moreover, it is similarly unclear whether the United States could draw Saudi Arabia into a workable political settlement for Yemen. Thus, while the United States could have a strategy in mind that could improve upon the status quo in the Middle East, a deeper dive into the energy realpolitik of the matter shows the complexities that stand in the way of progress.
https://www.cfr.org/blog/complicated-geopolitics-us-oil-sanctions-iran
We know very well who doesn't want Iran to gain more power in the region. America is just providing the mercenaries.
ReplyDelete