Mass migration and globalisation made the virus crisis happen.
East European emigrants returned home for lack of work abroad and brought back the virus to their motherlands. Contrast the speed with which the Coronavirus spread with the Bubonic Plague (an immeasurably worse disease, of course) that took seven months to cross Europe. Yet, despite the infected returning natives, Eastern Europe is doing much better than Western Europe.
Deaths from the virus per million. Romania 21. Moldova 16 (but are Moldovan statistics reliable?) Hungary 16. Bulgaria 6. Czechia 16. Slovakia 1. Poland 8. Bosnia 14. Albania 9.
Romania compares badly with her neighbours, but look westwards. Belgium 445. Spain 413. Italy 367. France 275. UK 202. USA 105.
Chinese figures are of course worthless.
Eastern European countries to some extent have infections under control, even though many or most of these countries have inadequate hospitals and their medical staff complained about insufficient equipment. Why?
Many introduced lockdowns before richer countries, partly because they knew how inadequate their health systems were. Also in post-Communist societies people accept orders and have what Douglas Murray, quoting Unamuno, calls the tragic sense of life.
The Czech Republic closed her schools and borders on March 12, Slovakia introduced a state of emergency on the same day. Poland closed her borders, restaurants and shopping centres on March 13.
The Romanian President was notably slower but closed hotels and bars on the 17th and by March 24 imposed a full lockdown, the day after Boris Johnson did the same in the UK.
Not long ago the explanation seemed to be simply that Eastern Europe is two weeks behind Western Europe. I hope this is not the case and no longer think it is. I think the obvious explanation is that there is much less traffic and commerce between Eastern European countries and the rest of the world than between Western Europe and other continents.
Lack of globalisation may have saved the Eastern Europe from the virus, as it so far has from other evils too.
Another explanation is that in Romania (and elsewhere in Eastern Europe) they don't test as much as in the West. Many of the dead had the virus and other things and were recorded as having died of those other illnesses. But the way to control for this factor is to look at the one reliable statistic: the crude weekly number of deaths from all causes.
Deaths from the virus per million. Romania 21. Moldova 16 (but are Moldovan statistics reliable?) Hungary 16. Bulgaria 6. Czechia 16. Slovakia 1. Poland 8. Bosnia 14. Albania 9.
Romania compares badly with her neighbours, but look westwards. Belgium 445. Spain 413. Italy 367. France 275. UK 202. USA 105.
Chinese figures are of course worthless.
Eastern European countries to some extent have infections under control, even though many or most of these countries have inadequate hospitals and their medical staff complained about insufficient equipment. Why?
Many introduced lockdowns before richer countries, partly because they knew how inadequate their health systems were. Also in post-Communist societies people accept orders and have what Douglas Murray, quoting Unamuno, calls the tragic sense of life.
The Czech Republic closed her schools and borders on March 12, Slovakia introduced a state of emergency on the same day. Poland closed her borders, restaurants and shopping centres on March 13.
The Romanian President was notably slower but closed hotels and bars on the 17th and by March 24 imposed a full lockdown, the day after Boris Johnson did the same in the UK.
Not long ago the explanation seemed to be simply that Eastern Europe is two weeks behind Western Europe. I hope this is not the case and no longer think it is. I think the obvious explanation is that there is much less traffic and commerce between Eastern European countries and the rest of the world than between Western Europe and other continents.
Lack of globalisation may have saved the Eastern Europe from the virus, as it so far has from other evils too.
Another explanation is that in Romania (and elsewhere in Eastern Europe) they don't test as much as in the West. Many of the dead had the virus and other things and were recorded as having died of those other illnesses. But the way to control for this factor is to look at the one reliable statistic: the crude weekly number of deaths from all causes.
China did shut down travel, western countries did not shut down economy during virus spread (https://gabrieldumitrescu.com/2020/04/13/fidelity-analysts-chinese-companies-to-thrive-post-covid-19/).
ReplyDeleteI guess you are right Paul, maybe Eastern European countries have less trade with the rest of the world.
As far as timing of lockdown and population acceptance to remove their rights are concerned, Romania (as well as our neighbors) are in between China and Western countries, I guess. Maybe more toward West.
Worth watching Belarus. According to the country's health ministry yesterday, Belarus had reported 8,773 cases, 1,120 patients who have recovered and 63 deaths. All the dead were suffering from chronic diseases. President Lukashenko has not imposed a lockdown though, unlike in Sweden, parents have the choice about whether to send their children to school and less than 40 per cent of children do.
Delete