If Lee Had Not Won the Battle of Gettysburg

I share Churchill's admiration for Robert E. Lee. I am always attracted to lost causes.

In an article written in the 1930s Churchill writes as a historian in an imaginary world in which the Confederates won the US Civil War, reflecting on what might have happened had they not. I read it with delight when I was 8, in a bound copy of several issues of a history magazine which I bought cheap at a market.

Last time I looked only extracts were on the net but and by chance I just found that it is now available complete. 

It is a very clever exercise in imaginary history and a perfectly plausible one. Reading it now in 2020 I see it contains lines which would almost certainly not be published in a respectable magazine these days.

There is practically no doubt at this stage that the basic principle upon which the colour question in the Southern States of America has been so happily settled owed its origin mainly to Gladstonian ingenuity and to the long statecraft of Britain in dealing with alien and more primitive populations. There was not only the need to declare the new fundamental relationship between master and servant, but the creation for the liberated slaves of institutions suited to their own cultural development and capable of affording them a different yet honourable status in a common wealth, destined eventually to become almost world-wide.

Let us only think what would have happened supposing the liberation of the slaves had at that time been followed immediately by some idiotic assertion of racial equality, and even by attempts to graft white democratic institutions upon the simple, gifted African race belonging to a much earlier chapter in human history. We might have seen the whole of the Southern States invaded by gangs of carpet-bagging politicians exploiting the ignorant and untutored coloured vote against the white inhabitants and bringing the time-honoured forms of parliamentary government into unmerited disrepute. We might have seen the sorry farce of black legislatures attempting to govern their former masters. Upon the rebound from this there must inevitably have been a strong reassertion of local white supremacy. By one device or another the franchises accorded to the negroes would have been taken from them. The constitutional principles of the Republic would have been proclaimed, only to be evaded or subverted; and many a warm-hearted philanthropist would have found his sojourn in the South no better than “A Fool’s Errand.”

Churchill was always an Edwardian progressive and imperialist and therefore certainly was a racist by the standards of his own day, as Andrew Roberts pointed out in his wonderful essay on Churchill's immigration policy in Eminent Churchillians. 

By the way, Andrew Roberts quotes (from Harold Macmillan's diary) Churchill saying in cabinet in January 1955

Keep England white - that would be a good election slogan.

However, thinking the Confederate cause was right is not racist. To me it is simply common sense and humanity. I think it was unforgivable that Lincoln launched a war that cost 700,000 lives to keep the South in the USA against its will. It should not be forgiven him, at any rate. Slavery is one of the sins on which the USA is built, but the bloody subjugation of the South by the North is another. It was the moment when the USA ceased to be a republic, except in form, and became an empire. Everything changed after that.