The Chair(man) of Chatham House, otherwise known as the Royal Institute of International Affairs, is Jim O'Neill, who is properly styled Lord O'Neill of Gatley, was chief economist at Goldman Sachs and was a British Treasury minister. He therefore knows something about economics and says that key weekly and monthly indicators suggest that a sharp return to growth around the world remains more likely than not.
I hope and even suspect, for what little my suspicions are worth, that he is right. I hope countries get people back to work quickly, for the whole world's sake.
Head of Chatham House says V-shaped recovery more likely than not
ReplyDeleteIt's possible for most of the Asian economies. I can't see it happening in the West. There are too many sectors of the economy that are likely to take a decade, and maybe several decades, to recover. Restaurants, bars, hotels, every single business in tourist locations, airlines, civil aircraft manufacturing, most of the "service" economy - these may never recover.
Australia would have been in a good position had the criminally irresponsible Morrison Government not decided to make an enemy of China. Now the Australian economy is probably doomed, but at least we've kept our American masters happy. Maybe they';ll give us a pat on the head and tell us, "Good doggie."
The only hopes for genuine economic recovery are a vaccine or herd immunity, and both are very very unlikely.
Big business will be OK, they're guaranteed never-ending handouts from government. But the small business sector has been almost certainly permanently wrecked. So we'll probably get a partial recovery, with permanent very high unemployment and significantly lower standards of living but with high corporate profits for big business. It will be a new economy, with the rich being richer and everyone else being much worse off. Countries like Britain and the US will be even more like Third World countries, with fabulously rich elites and everybody else facing a grim struggle for survival.
I like the look of Mr Morrison. You are far too pessimistic. Sectors taking decades to recover from the lockdown? But this helps the big players at the expense of the small man.
DeleteI like the look of Mr Morrison.
DeleteHis anti-China hysteria is going to wreck the Australian economy.
You are far too pessimistic. Sectors taking decades to recover from the lockdown?
The tourist industry may never recover. Which means every business dependent on tourism (which in some towns means every single business) is likely to go broke. Airlines may never recover. The civil aircraft manufacturing business may never recover.
Lockdowns are not going away. Lockdowns are the New Normal. What we're seeing now is that as soon as lockdowns are eased the infection rates go up, the media gets hysterical and politicians panic. I don't see that changing. I expect intermittent lockdowns for the next couple of years.
Victoria is now a police state If you're considering leaving your home you'd better make sure your papers are in order.
I'm not saying I agree with lockdowns, but the combination of media hysteria and politicians' cowardice makes them likely to continue for a long time.
And I honestly think herd immunity is wishful thinking. At the moment I have a slight cold. But how can that be? We've had centuries to gain herd immunity to the common cold but it hasn't happened. And I haven't been vaccinated for the common cold because after centuries we still don't have a vaccine.
I wish I could share your optimism.
Part of the problem is Trump. He has pretty much discredited the anti-lockdown position. Maybe once Trump is gone things will get better. Trump has managed to discredit just about all of the policies that are needed to restore sanity to the world.
Of course the tourist industry will recover. Probably almost completely alas. I hope there are a many fewer tourist journeys in the future because tourism has become a blight. If it goes back to its 1985 levels that would be good but it won't.
DeleteTrump realizes he went too far and scared people with his recklessness. After endlessly belittling masks and socially distanced gatherings he is now half-heartedly recommending them.
ReplyDeleteIn his press conference today the president had few words of kindness or solace for Americans who are now jobless, frightened bereaved, or ill. He did, however, manage to send friendly good wishes to the imprisoned Ghislaine Maxwell.