He thought that there was no rational military path for Ukraine to win back her lost territories.
He could well be right. I agree with him that Barak Obama was right not to support a proxy war between Ukraine and Russia in 2014.
The interviewer mentions the Russian desire for an empire. Most Russians and many Americans think Americans are the ones who have an empire.
An American lawyer I know complained to me recently that 'We Americans don't know how to have an empire.'
He said in 2014 the Americans should have landed in Crimea.
I said that that would have meant war.
"Yes!"
He's a Democrat.
Sky News, which is usually gung-ho about the war, isn't today. It says Biden is supplying cluster bombs to Ukraine because the offensive is failing.
"The transfer is a clear signal that the war is not going well for Ukraine.
"The so-called spring offensive did not materialise in the spring and looks set to falter through the summer too.
"Ukraine is fast running out of more conventional artillery with supply stocks in America and elsewhere running low."
Sir Lawrence Freedman today is worried too, but less despondent about the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
"The so-called spring offensive did not materialise in the spring and looks set to falter through the summer too.
"Ukraine is fast running out of more conventional artillery with supply stocks in America and elsewhere running low."
Sir Lawrence Freedman today is worried too, but less despondent about the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
I notice that the foreign policy idealists, who think Putin invaded Ukraine completely unprovoked in order to build an empire, are optimistic that he can be pushed out of Ukraine. And the realists are not. But why is this? Am I being stupid?
Still, the realists are not called realists for nothing. I really cannot imagine how Russia can be pushed out of much of what she now holds.
Still, the realists are not called realists for nothing. I really cannot imagine how Russia can be pushed out of much of what she now holds.
I'd love to be wrong.
Endless war will hurt Ukraine much more than Russia because Ukraine is much smaller and the war is being fought in Ukraine.
Endless war will hurt Ukraine much more than Russia because Ukraine is much smaller and the war is being fought in Ukraine.
Bush 1 asked before his son's invasion of Iraq "But what is his exit strategy?"
What's Biden's?
I don't imagine he knows. He got drawn into this war unintentionally, as is usual with wars.
John Mearsheimer, quoted by Sir Lawrence, thinks Russia will ‘ultimately win the war’ not by conquering all of Ukraine but by annexing a ‘large swath of Ukrainian territory, while turning Ukraine into a dysfunctional rump state.’
That's Putin’s exit strategy.
This is why I think a ceasefire hardening into peace as soon as possible is best for Ukraine.
According to Sky News, another reason for the Americans giving Ukraine cluster bombs is that they know another president in 18 months might not want to carry on backing Ukraine. Putin no doubt is also hoping for Trump or DeSantis to become US President.
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2023/05/21/f-16s-wont-fundamentally-alter-the-course-of-ukraine-war/
ReplyDeleteUkraine needs an exit strategy, but America does not. For us alone, it's enough that the Russian armed forces are being shredded and Russia isolated. Putin is now at war with his generals, having just revealed that he's in league with Prigozhin against them. It's now up to them to act against Putin if they dare, and wish to preside over more than an empty shell of a military.
ReplyDeleteThat is true.
Delete
DeleteFT Feb 23 2023:
https://www.ft.com/content/80002564-33e8-48fb-b734-44810afb7a49
'In ramping up military support for Ukraine, western officials are mindful anything less than a crushing defeat for Russia risks failing to deal with the problem.
'“We need to ask ourselves: How do we want this to end up? Do we want to end up in a situation when Putin will survive and he will have more time?” says an EU foreign minister. “Something like the lull between the first and second world war.”'
'“We need to ask ourselves: How do we want this to end up? Do we want to end up in a situation when Putin will survive and he will have more time?” says an EU foreign minister. “Something like the lull between the first and second world war.”'
DeleteThese officials terrify me. The baleful Hitler analogy seems to have warped their minds.
Won't happen. Putin is smart enough to have Intelligence personnel imbedded within the General Staff, they'll inform him of any attempted coup....might already have happened....
DeleteThe NeoCons think they need an absolute destruction of Russia.....they need that tract of land for just about every nefarious Op they are involved in.....from money laundering to illegal BioLabs....they call it a Proxy war....it's actually two criminal agencies warring with one another......
It's simple. Stop using Ukraine as a Nato bulwark and keep it neutral as a buffer zone.Then the dying will stop, Ukrainians can return home.
ReplyDeleteWe can suppose Putin will have to attack Finland and Sweden, the newly emerged NATO bulwarks.
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