Former Ukrainian presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych: Now we are at an impasse. The Russians cannot defeat us, we cannot defeat them.

Mr Arestovych on Twitter yesterday said that rather than get sucked into fighting for Bakhmut the Ukrainian army should have concentrated on breaking through the southern frontlines and preparing its own defences.

 Translation: Google Translate.

Now we are at an impasse. The Russians cannot defeat us, we cannot defeat them. For a decisive shift in the war, either side needs to be able to dramatically increase resources, but there is no such possibility. What's the solution? The Russian leadership is radically increasing its military budget, intensifying production, trying to secure supplies from North Korea/China, improving smuggling schemes and building a “Global South versus Global West” policy. Its task is to hold out until the US presidential elections (November 2024), and then negotiate to his advantage. Our leadership is suppressing business, civil liberties and political competitors, quarrelling with neighbours and key partners, encouraging corruption. It is also trying to establish production, resolve something with military and financial assistance, form international coalitions and support, but Russia, for all its shortcomings, has real sovereignty, and we do not. Russia makes cannibal decisions, but adequate to the current situation, and our leadership is corrupt and inadequate - as our Aspen sponsors and partners constantly point out. This policy leads us to a dead end. Our leadership, in my assessment, has exhausted the limits of its competence a long time ago. We can no longer expect them to make adequate decisions that suit the situation. They don’t even want to tell the people the truth - there will be no return to the borders of 1991, and there will be no Crimea in the near future, but there will be defence, blood, sweat, tears. And instead of making defense easier, sweat, blood and tears expanding civil liberties, freeing up the economy and concentrating resources on defence, there is a tightening of screws, rubbish points and persecution of those who tell people the truth.