If I expected the Ukrainian counter-offensive to fail (though I hoped it would succeed) why did these people not?

Because the wish was father to the thought? Or were they whistling in the dark? Or trying to build public support for Ukraine?

A clever, well-informed Lithuanian friend was very confident until the US papers were leaked in April.

  

Senator Lindsey Graham: “I expect major gains in the coming days and weeks. I think they can expel Russia from Ukraine.” [May 28 Fox News]

 

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin: “I think Ukraine will have a very good chance of success.” [03/28/23]

 

National security adviser Jake Sullivan: “We believe that the Ukrainians will meet with success in this counteroffensive.” [06/04/23]

 

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg: “I’m confident that when Ukraine decides to launch new operations to liberate more land, Ukraine will be successful.” [4/21/23]

 

Former CIA Director, Gen. David Petraeus: "I personally think that this is going to be really quite successful. .. And [the Russians] are going to have to withdraw under pressure of this Ukrainian offensive, the most difficult possible tactical maneuver, and I don't think they're going to do well at that." [05/23/23] “I think that this counteroffensive is going to be very impressive.” [06/03/23]

 

Edward Luttwak: “If Kyiv and the West are looking for the most plausible path to victory, this is it.” [05/11/23]

 

Atlantic Council fellow Richard Hooker: “As we are often told, no plan survives contact with the enemy. There will likely be the occasional tactical miscue or operational hiccup during the coming counteroffensive, but a careful assessment suggests the odds are heavily in favor of Ukraine.” [05/23/23]

 

Former Chief of the British General Staff, General Richard Dannatt: “after Kyiv's successful counteroffensive, Vladimir Putin ‘may be swept out of the Kremlin.’” [03/28/23] 

Paul Massaro, senior policy adviser, the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe: “Full Ukrainian victory is coming. Sooner than you think.” [06/12/23]

Paul Massaro is the most irritating person on the internet, by the way. He is not Graham Greene's Quiet American because he is extremely noisy. 

I thought we had learnt the lessons of Iraq and American overextension. Usually we learn from the mistakes of the past how to make new mistakes (AJP Taylor). 

I know this time it was Russia not America that invaded another country but America intentionally or probably not had provoked Russia.

Colonel Douglas Macgregor was largely right about the counter-offensive, though he had overestimated the Russians in 2022. He quoted unbelievably high numbers of Ukrainian losses last year for which he gave no evidence (I presume he believed Russian propaganda). I don't particularly recommend him, though I sometimes listen to him and he understands things much better than the academics who are very parti pris and not at all dispassionate. Professor John Mearsheimer, whom I recommend highly on Ukraine and Gaza, is the exception - he was right that Ukraine did not have enough ammunition.