From the outside, it is understandable to read this as a large, nationwide protest crushed by force. Inside Iran, first hand accounts I have received from early participants describe something more complex: protests that were quickly hijacked by armed, organised actors.
What a lot of people are failing to understand is that there were more than 600 protests in 200 cities and towns. The scale of the tragedy in Iran reflects *both* the extent of the protests and the brutality of the crackdown.
In that context, security forces were forced to intervene to prevent escalation and protect civilians, including protestors. Accounts report that police did not initially use armed force, and that many participants left once the violent hijacking of protests were apparent.
There seems to be a real gap between internal realities and external narratives shaped by past assumptions and limited evidence. The sources of HRANA and other organisations that are producing alternative numbers are very opaque and remain unverified.
If we question incentives for under-reporting by the Islamic Republic, intellectual consistency requires us to also question the incentives, funding structures, and evidentiary standards of US-based and external groups whose higher figures neatly fit their political narratives.
https://x.com/viraameli/status/2015766298156826729
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