“Even if Trump works out a deal that is satisfactory to him…it’s not going to satisfy to the Israelis. The Israelis have made it very clear that they will attack Iran alone if that is necessary. Of course if they attack Iran, there’s no way we don’t get involved because we will then have to help defend Israel when the Iranians then start launching ballistic missiles at Israel.”
"The Chinese import 1.4 million barrels of oil from Iran a day. Are they just going to sit back and allow the Iranian leadership to be toppled if Netanyahu and Trump attack?
"No, they're going to go to great lengths to help Iran. And as I said to you before, with the passage of time the Chinese especially, but also the Russians, are going to help the Iranians more and more. And that's why I said to you a year from now when we'll when we're talking about this issue, right? It will be clear that the China Russia dimension will be more important then than it is now. But it's already important now."I want to make one other quick point to you just to put this whole crisis in perspective."I believe that virtually every country in the Middle East except maybe the UAE, which is pretty closely allied with Israel, but virtually every other country in the Middle East, plus the Chinese, plus the Russians, want this war to not happen. The only country that really wants it to happen is Israel. As we've talked about, the Americans really don't want this war. Trump doesn't want to fight a war against Iran. He's being pushed down this road by the Israelis.
"So, you see the remarkable power of Israel simply because it has such a hold over American policy makers."Just think about it. Every country in the Middle East except maybe the UAE is desperate to avoid this war. The Chinese and the Russians don't want this war. Trump really doesn't want this war. Who wants this war? Benjamin Netanyahu."Well, will he get the war that he wants? Boy, it's very hard to say. I go back and forth on this one."On the one hand I say this war can't happen because we can't achieve our goals by striking Iran. And furthermore you have to take into account what Iran can do in retaliation. You were just talking about the Straits of Hormuz and what the consequences would be if that one heated up. And of course, the Iranians are going to launch ballistic missiles at Israel as well. So, it's hard to see why it makes sense to start this war from a purely strategic point of view."But then, it looks like Trump has boxed himself in. And furthermore, the Israelis appear to be putting enormous pressure on him to go to war against Iran. And you know, can he disobey his masters? I don't think so."So that pushes me in the other direction. So I feel one day war is inevitable because of pressure from the Israelis and the next day I think it's not going to happen because I can't tell a story as to how a war leads to some sort of happy ending for all the parties. Don't the Israelis with their intel and military superiority or at least accomplished excellence from their perspective understand how devastating to Israel this war would be?"
No countries in the world except Israel and UAE want war but the serried host of female journalists in London, Sarah Vine, Alison Pearson, Ruth Dudley Edwards and the rest are baying for blood like tricoteuses and seem honestly to think a US attack brought about by Israel and supported by the UK will make Iran a happier place. They have the idea that the December protests were spontaneous and directed against the regime itself rather than hardship caused by the vertiginous fall of the rial, something which Scott Besant admitted the US deliberately brought about. They are experienced journalists but believe what they are told by other journalists.
Don't take very seriously again any journalist who wants war with Iran - they are either propagandists or bloody fools or both - and never ever again for a moment trust ones who say Epstein worked for Russia.
America First?
ReplyDeleteJohn J. Mearsheimer
On 17 February 2026, I was on “Judging Freedom” talking with the Judge about the negotiations to end the Ukraine war and produce a peace agreement — kabuki theater in my view — and the negotiations to end the Iran crisis short of war — more kabuki theater. There is no bargaining space in either one of these negotiations. The goals of the opposing sides are miles apart and no side is in the mood to compromise.
Not to mention that on the US side both sets of negotiations are in the hands of two ultra-Zionist real estate moguls who don’t even have official government positions. I guess this is what “American exceptionalism” means today, because no other great power that I know of has gone down that road. Just look at Russia’s and China’s high-level diplomats; they are first rate. As are Iran’s and Israel’s lead negotiators. It is hard to imagine those countries relying on amateurs with a passionate attachment to a foreign country. In fact, a foreign country that is at the center of one set of negotiations.
I regret that I won’t be around when future historians write about these two conflicts and more generally about US foreign policy under Biden and Trump. The level of ineptitude is stunning, although in the Iran case we have to take into account the pernicious influence of the Israel lobby. Think about it: Iran is not a serious threat to the US and Trump is not itching to bomb Iran; China and Russia are strongly opposed to the US attacking Iran; and almost every country in the Middle East is begging Trump not to strike Iran. There is only one country — Israel — that wants the US to go to war against Iran. It is Israel alone — with the help of the Israel lobby of course — that is pushing the US to at least the brink of war and maybe over that brink.