Former British spy Alastair Crooke delivers a blunt assessment of the Iran conflict on Daniel Davis's YouTube podcast Deep Dive. I thought this summary on X deserved quoting in full.
What was long treated as unchallengeable American military power has been exposed as brittle and limited. The consequences reach far beyond the region and are already strengthening the rising influence of BRICS.
THE SHREDDED US STANDING
➡️ This war is shredding the standing of the US military presence.
➡️ It was thought to be invulnerable, unable to be contested or attacked. That has all been proved wrong.
➡️ American military structures have their arches healed. They do not have enough defense weapons. They do not have enough wherewithal to launch a major war.
➡️ They are not doing very well even with a localised war and are making mistakes.
THE FIFTH FLEET HOSTAGE
➡️ In 1979 the embassy hostages brought down an American administration. There are no students in an embassy now. There is the Fifth Fleet.
➡️ Where is that? Off Bahrain. That is quite a big hostage.
➡️ Effectively the Fifth Fleet is an Iranian hostage.
➡️ Someone in the White House needs to wise up and get out of this quite quickly. Otherwise it becomes a complete catastrophe for the United States, for its image and for its presence in the world. It will be a humiliation.
THE TWO CHOICES
➡️ One path is climbing down from the tree. Psychologically that may prove impossible.
➡️ The other is all-out war. That will finish the standing of the United States as a serious political player or serious military power.
➡️ People will have learned from the Iranian experience exactly how to deal with the United States.
THE LESSONS THAT STICK
➡️ The first lesson is to trust in nothing. Nothing said, nothing written, nothing.
➡️ Young people on the streets of Iran ask why anyone is negotiating. He will say one thing one moment and pull it back the next. There is no point talking to a person like that. Forget it. We do not need to deal with the United States.
➡️ The second lesson is clearer still. If you punch the United States in the face, they cannot deal with those blows. They cannot stop them. They are more vulnerable than people thought.
THE BRICS BOOST
➡️ This strengthens the BRICS because they can see a weakening America.
➡️ If America has failed to subordinate Iran and reduce it to a vassal, it will not succeed with Russia or China.
➡️ Those states will take strong encouragement from Iran winning the war.
➡️ It will increase China’s insistence on a close relationship with Iran to secure energy supplies.
➡️ China already views the entire process as an attempt to put it under siege by squeezing its energy routes.
THE BOTTOM LINE
The order that existed before this war is gone forever. Iran has emerged stronger. American military standing has been shredded in public. BRICS powers are drawing the direct conclusion that US dominance is no longer unchallengeable.
This is the sound of multipolar power rising while American control slips away.
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