Chronicle of a defeat foretold (by me anyway)

It was pretty obvious that the Iranians would not rise up after the murder of more than forty of their leaders. Why would they? They did not during the CIA Mossad arranged violence in January, intended to provoke an uprising and the overthrow of the government by force with Mossad help. Former senior British diplomat Ian Proud thinks the same and runs through the reasons why America has lost this awful war here. 

Obviously America has no interest in invading Iran and no means of doing so and absolutely no justification for attempting to do so. 

I quote Ian Proud:

So if we assess Trump’s stated purpose for this operation, it rests of two claims which history will show not to be true, and on a belief in the outcomes of US military action – that it would precipitate an Iranian revolution – that was deluded and which lays bare the weak strategic analysis underpinning US action.

I therefore predict the following:

- Whether it stops now or stops later, the US will not be able to declare a decisive military victory against Iran. Rather it will be seen as an epic failure;

- That the Republican party will lose the mid-term elections in November badly handing control of both houses of the Democrats;

- That the fallout from the Iran war and growing concerns about his health may generate pressure for Trump to abdicate his Presidency and anoint JD Vance, though he will refuse to go;

- That the Democrats will win the 2028 Presidential election.

Those predictions remain the same whether the US decides to off-ramp now or to continue fighting Iran for a few more weeks.

Why? Because a US climb-down now will make Trump look weak in the face of a much smaller Iran damaging his image at home. And because a continued war which does not deliver a decisive victory will reveal the fragility of US military power making Trump look rash and incompetent, especially if US casualties rise, damaging his image at home and shattering support from his MAGA base.

Having committed to battle, the only choice now is when to stop. And in neither scenario, stop now or stop later, can Trump emerge as a victor.