What do Third World military analysts estimate the Ukrainian and Russian death tolls to be?

The Indian think tank the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) has the merit of being completely neutral in the Russia-Ukraine war and its analysis is therefore very useful. They think that both sides are lying extensively about numbers of casualties, which is obviously true. 

They view Western estimates of fewer than 100,000 Ukrainian deaths (the BBC talks about 140,000) as massive undercounts but see Larry Johnson’s estimate of 1.5 million Ukrainian military deaths in action, as opposed to fewer than 227,000 on the Russian side, as impossible. Ukraine would not still be fighting were that the case.

Third-world analysts say comparing the number of bodies exchanged by the two sides, as Mr Johnson does, is a very unreliable way of measuring total casualties as the number depends on what exchanges are agreed by diplomacy and on the accessibility of the battlegrounds where bodies are recovered. 

The IDSA does not estimate death tolls but in general non-aligned military analysts estimate Ukrainian and Russian deaths in action to be roughly the same and between 300,000 and 500,000.

The war studies department of King's College London says it is independent but it is really an important part of the British defence establishment which colours their judgements. 

I gave up on them but a PhD student at King’s College London’s Department of War Studies Alexander Grable in a paper titled “Irretrievable Losses: Estimating Casualties in the Russo-Ukraine War,” contends that Ukrainian losses are at least ten times higher than Russia’s and possibly substantially more in comparable categories. 

His figures would accord with those of Larry Johnson. 

The IDSA concludes that Russia’s spending over $21 billion on artillery and munitions compared to Ukraine’s $4.3 billion, combined with Russia's ability to manufacture artillery and munitions, mean she can sustain this gruelling rate of attrition for several more years.

 
Ukraine is experiencing a severe shortage of fighting men, which is why we've all seen pictures of young men being kidnapped from the streets and thrust into vans by press gangs. Ukraine has now started conscripting women. Russia, as in previous wars, has the size endurance to outlast her enemy. 

Let's hope this war ends with something like the solution that Finland obtained. Finland, unlike Romania, ended up after the Second World War neutral, democratic, capitalist, and prosperous. 

Prosperity for Ukraine looks a long shot at the moment but lots of people will make a lot of money out of Ukraine after the war. 

For me the most important issues are whether Ukraine succeeds in keeping her coast and how quickly the the war ends.