"Ukraine's disastrous counter-offensive"

I'd never heard of retired Lieutenant Colonel Davis till now. In this interesting interview from two weeks ago the American said that the "disastrous" Ukrainian counter-offensive had failed and that Biden should not have engaged so much with the Ukrainian war effort.

He thought that there was no rational military path for Ukraine to win back her lost territories.

He could well be right. I agree with him that Barak Obama was right not to support a proxy war between Ukraine and Russia in 2014.

The interviewer mentions the Russian desire for an empire. Most Russians and many Americans think Americans are the ones who have an empire.

An American lawyer I know complained to me recently that 'We Americans don't know how to have an empire.'

He said in 2014 the Americans should have landed in Crimea.

I said that that would have meant war.

"Yes!"

He's a Democrat.

Sky News, which is usually gung-ho about the war, isn't today. It says Biden is supplying cluster bombs to Ukraine because the offensive is failing.

"The transfer is a clear signal that the war is not going well for Ukraine.

"The so-called spring offensive did not materialise in the spring and looks set to falter through the summer too.

"Ukraine is fast running out of more conventional artillery with supply stocks in America and elsewhere running low."

Sir Lawrence Freedman today is worried too, but less despondent about the Ukrainian counteroffensive. 

I notice that the foreign policy idealists, who think Putin invaded Ukraine completely unprovoked in order to build an empire, are optimistic that he can be pushed out of Ukraine. And the realists are not. But why is this? Am I being stupid?

Still, the realists are not called realists for nothing. I really cannot imagine how Russia can be pushed out of much of what she now holds. 

I'd love to be wrong.

Endless war will hurt Ukraine much more than Russia because Ukraine is much smaller and the war is being fought in Ukraine.

Bush 1 asked before his son's invasion of Iraq "But what is his exit strategy?" 

What's Biden's?

I don't imagine he knows. He got drawn into this war unintentionally, as is usual with wars.

John Mearsheimer, quoted by Sir Lawrence, thinks Russia will ‘ultimately win the war’ not by conquering all of Ukraine but by annexing a ‘large swath of Ukrainian territory, while turning Ukraine into a dysfunctional rump state.’

That's Putin’s exit strategy. 

This is why I think a ceasefire hardening into peace as soon as possible is best for Ukraine.

According to Sky News, another reason for the Americans giving Ukraine cluster bombs is that they know another president in 18 months might not want to carry on backing Ukraine. Putin no doubt is also hoping for Trump or DeSantis to become US President.