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Iran is more powerful now than before the war — it controls the price of world oil and more likely to fracture the US coalition than US is to grow it. Stunning gains in 17 days
I cannot recommend enough this conversation between journalist Wajahat Ali and Professor Robert Pape.
Professor Pape says that the first US objective in the Middle East was always to prevent the Straits of Hormoz being captured by an enemy and that Iran could prevent free flow of ships through the Straits of Hormuz for the next six months.
The consequences could be comparable with the Arab oil embargo in 1984, a reaction to the Arab defeat in the Yom Kippur war, which created the inflation that bedevilled America and the developed world until around 1983.
The world economy has not yet processed what this war means - it will be like a supertanker taking time to change direction slowly.
The Professor says that Obama's deal, though certainly not perfect, bought 10-15 years without Iran developing the bomb, something which was worth achieving.
The Professor says that Obama's deal, though certainly not perfect, bought 10-15 years without Iran developing the bomb, something which was worth achieving.
Iran offered the US a similar but better deal the day before the US murder spree.
Professor Pape sees this war as an example of his escalation trap theory.
Professor Pape sees this war as an example of his escalation trap theory.
He talks about Trump's 'illusion of control'.
Trump does not have the off-ramps he says he has.
His boasts are "the spasms of a dying body".
Iran responded to the US attack with 'horizontal escalation' turning the conflict into a prolonged war of attrition favoring Iran.
Robert Pape said this on X on the Ides of March.
Three major misunderstandings are distorting the Iran War. These three represent lingering hopes for a quick victory. But hoping Iran will bail us out is not a strategy. This war is entering a long strategic game—and we need to see how it actually works.
Misunderstanding #1: “The war is mainly about Iran’s military capabilities” No. The war right now is a race
A race between the rising global price of oil and Iran’s shrinking supply of drones
The U.S. can destroy drones, but fast enough to head off months of $120 p/b oil?
If oil prices rise faster than Iran’s drone arsenal falls, Iran wins the race. That’s Iran’s leverage.
Misunderstanding #2: “This war will end quickly” Washington says the conflict could end in weeks
But war is a two-actor game
Iran has no incentive to reopen Hormuz before U.S. politics turns toxic
By summer, the war becomes a political crisis in Washington. That’s Iran’s timing.
Misunderstanding #3: “Iran is mainly aiming for civilian casualties”.
No. That misses the real strategy. Iran is targeting the economic foundations of the Gulf and Israel. Horizontal escalation threatens the pillars of the GCC economy— oil exports, global trade flows, and the luxury cities. Drones/cluster munitions impose constant insecurity inside Israel The goal isn’t mass casualties. The goal is to drive capital out of the Gulf and people out of Israel That’s long-war economic warfare.
Put the three dynamics together:
• An economic race
• Political timing
• Long-war economic coercion
And the real trajectory of this war comes into focus—and how Trump fell into the Escalation Trap
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