Tuesday, 11 December 2018

Britain is in her greatest peril since the 17th century

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Journalists doorstepped David Cameron today asking him if he feels guilty about the mess he has created by calling a referendum. This is an interesting example of how anti-democratic British opinion formers are, but of course the former Prime Minister they should be mobbing is John Major. By passing up the chance to veto the Treaty of Maastricht in 1992, he is responsible not only for the referendum result but for ruining the European Community.

Theresa May is a much worse leader than David Cameron (who was good in his own terms), Sir John Major, Lord North, who was in fact not that bad, or Sir Anthony Eden. To compare her with Tony Blair is to compare chalk and cheese. He was a consummate leader who did terrible things. She is, like Gordon Brown, a terrible leader but she looks to be a as ruinous or even more ruinous than Tony Blair


Thank God enough letters have gone in to the Chairman of the 1922 Committee to require a leadership election in the British Conservative Party. 

Logically that had to happen, just as logically Theresa May had to postpone the House of Commons vote in which her government's policy would have been defeated by 100 or 200 votes.

Britain cannot give away between £35bn and £39 billion for nothing in return, except the promise to discuss a trade agreement, but this is Mrs. May's proposal. We cannot give this money way but with Mrs May in office, and pretending to be in power, we shall probably do so. 

Canada, to remind you, has free trade for no payment, as does Turkey except for agricultural produce.

Mrs May should have accepted the Canadian option, which she said in the House yesterday she was offered by Donald Tusk - and let the Irish chips fall where they may. 


Forget the Irish border. It is not important. No-one will erect customs barriers along it (and if they did so, which they will not, that would not infringe the Good Friday Agreement).

The European Union has no jurisdiction on the Belfast Agreement - and should simply have been told that. 

Let me emphasise that it is not the backstop that is the worst thing about Mrs May's proposal but the fact that she has no idea what sort of trade agreement the EU will accept - after we have given them a sum between £35bn and £39 billion and our main bargaining card. 

However we know, because she has told us so, that they will want us to be almost as regulated as the EU is. 


What to do now? 

Now we should accept a clean break followed later, I'd hope, by the Canadian option. 

Unfortunately, the British deep state and a Remain dominated Parliament will probably not permit a hard Brexit and we shall be left at Europe's not tender mercy.

The backstop will probably keep the UK as a European captive market, as Daniel Hannan has said. 

What we should do, I think, as someone who did not like Margaret Thatcher's economic policies back in the 1980s, is have a hard Brexit and a bonfire of regulations, accompanied by a lowering of taxation. 

We should also move closer to the USA.

An anonymous EU Ambassador to London is quoted in The Guardian today as saying

“We are watching the culmination of a 40-year Tory civil war, and yet it is damaging Europe since we have so much to do on terrorism, the [EU] budget and populism. Who wants this dragged out? Who claps at this? Putin, and maybe Trump?”
Another apparently said:
“In many ways, the British have got everything they wanted. But there is a determination to turn the EU into the enemy, which is very dangerous since relatively the threat is Russia. That is the real and active danger we share."
They probably mean this nonsense, which shows you how removed the diplomats are from reality, but from the point of view of a committed Leaver (or anyone really) the European Union is obviously a far greater threat to British independence than Russia. How telling that the Ambassador thinks populism a threat to Europe, to be mentioned along with terrorism. In other words he thinks the people threaten the European project, and so they do.

Russia has no intention of invading Britain or, for the matter, the EU. For the more intelligent voters the threat to their country comes not only from the Europeans but from migrants and refugees. 

Other threats are the Irish and Scottish nationalists, but these are much smaller worries.

Mrs May, who is a convinced EUrophile and thinks like the other Western European leaders cannot understand that the British want the right to make their own laws and not be ruled by foreigners. 


She thinks the vote was about restricting immigration. 

Her deal ends free movement of people - closing the stable door long after millions of Eastern European horses have bolted - yet shamefully she, unlike the USA, Australia and many other countries, has signed the UN Migration Accord that requires states to approve and facilitate mass immigration. Why did she not follow Donald Trump's lead rather than Angela Merkel's? Apart from the principled objections to this dreadfully misguided and foolish document she thereby misses a chance to align herself with Donald Trump and the governments of Eastern Europe and Italy. She prefers the EU establishment to the Eurosceptic, mass immigration-sceptic governments who should be our friends.

By postponing a promised vote in the House of Commons which she would have lost by a huge majority Mrs May's plan is obvious, to push the vote to the last possible moment and offer MPs a choice between her plan and  a hard Brexit that scares them. My fear is that she may somehow see off her enemies and remain Prime Minister, her trick may work and we be forever vassals of the EU, obeying its laws with no say however small in making those laws. 

Will the British put up with this or will the Tory party remember its reason for existence, to preserve the nation from attack?

What would the Pitts have thought or real Tories like Castlereagh, Disraeli or Salisbury? 


Mrs May is reported to dislike the name 'Conservative Party' and she is no conservative.

Thank God that Britain has a chance - simply because Theresa May lost an election she could have easily won and that the Ulster Protestant DUP hold the balance of power (how odd for a Catholic like me to write this.)

26 comments:

  1. I am in agreement with what is said here. Mrs May is utterly useless - and must go. And we should have a Canada style free trade agreement with the E.U. (or NOT pay them 39 pence - let alone 39 Billion Pounds) and call-their-bluff over the Irish border, and they are bluffing.

    As for Russia - that is a subject for discussion on another occasion (although I would point out that even my old opponent Dr Gabb is NOT a fan of Mr Putin - seeing him as the thug he is). But the idea that the bureaucratic mess that is the European Union is some sort of defence against Mr Putin is indeed utter nonsense. The confusion of the European Union and NATO (two different organisations) must stop.

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    1. Putin is appalling and dangerous but there are vastly bigger threats to our interests.

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    2. The confusion of the European Union and NATO (two different organisations) must stop.

      They're both equally evil. NATO is perhaps the more evil of the two.

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    3. 'Putin is appalling and dangerous'

      Obvs, see:
      The world’s most famous Zek meets the the world’s most famous Chekist

      https://patrickarmstrong.ca/2018/12/09/a-photo-to-blow-your-mind-away/

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  2. We should also move closer to the USA.

    Britain's most dangerous enemy has always been the US. They destroyed your empire, they bankrupted you and they reduced you to the status of a third-rate power. No country has ever done so much harm to Britain than the US.

    And forget Trump. His chances of re-election in 2020 are extremely slim. After 2020 you'll be dealing with an extremist Democrat in the White House.

    The US is an existential threat to civilisation.

    Britain should move closer to Russia.

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    1. Extremely slim? Everyone expects him to win.

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  3. The problem is not Theresa May. The problem is the Tories.

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  4. Agreed.

    I think all of "the right" (for want of a better term) can unite around the sentiments you express here.

    Paul

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  5. "The Commission in particular is out of touch with reality," Sondland said. "They are off in a cloud, regulating to the heart's content, and regulating some things that don't even need to be regulated because they haven't even occurred yet, while stifling growth and innovation."

    "It doesn't count when it comes to asking the European Union to cut us a little slack and shift some of the benefit across the table to us, so we can feel like we are getting a fair shake. And this is what the president has been complaining about. So we don't ever beg. That's not our style. But we do what we need to do in order to fix a problem. And if it can't be done in a voluntary and cooperative fashion, it'll have to be done in other ways."

    "The EU, largely driven by the French, is trying to build a fence around their own industries, exclude others, but at the same time would still like us to buy a lot of their products and help defend Europe," he said. "So it's a cake-and-eat-it-too issue."

    In the end, Sondland said, European leaders were failing to capitalize on the opportunity to work with Trump.
    "I told them ... you should be taking advantage of the fact that you have a very non-ideological president who is a dealmaker. He wants to make a deal ... You should take advantage of that. This is a deal person. You should make a deal," he said. "They don't want to make a deal."

    "My joke today is if I ask someone at the EU what time it is, the answer is 'no'."

    Gordon Sondland
    U.S. ambassador to the EU
    https://www.politico.eu/article/trumps-man-in-brussels-slams-out-of-touch-eu/

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  6. https://interactive.news.sky.com/2017/brexit-countdown/

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  7. Well, whatever elseBrexit has done, it has caused massive political turmoil and fingerpointing. Was it all worth it?

    Oh, and looks as though Mrs May isn't going anywhere. Like the Trump chief of staff position, her job is not one that any sane person would currently want.

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  8. I was very flattered that the great Rod Liddle told me that this article was 'very good'.

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    1. "Flattery is the sign of the Inn of which Duplicity is host."
      Ron Liddle is a lilliputian hack.

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  9. Seems to me some British people either live on another planet or more likely another age. Queen Victoria is, nonetheless, long gone.

    If the British people want out they should understand they are on their own. Out means out.

    I still believe, however, that if they were now given a second chance, the logical rather than the populists would prevail. The comforting factor is that the young and the more educated (London area) massively voted remain in the first vote anyway.
    KK

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    1. I agree with you. I want out and a hard Brexit. I start to want the EU to collapse. It will of course but I do not know when. GDPR symbolizes all that is wrong with the EU.

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    2. You are at least consistent with your wishes unlike many of the dreamers in your country.

      It is a pity, however, that people like yourself compromise the future of the younger generations who do believe in the value of the EU, despite its shortcomings. So do the Scots, by the way. Shouldn’t they be allowed to leave the UK and stay in the EU, given their vote was before Brexit?

      The EU is arguably the greatest achievement in European history of all times. I am trying to remember when was the last time there were 75 years without war, not to mention the prosperity. And the ‘’peripheral wars” (ie Yugoslavia, Ukraine) did not concern EU countries.

      In a word that is getting closer and closer because of the strides in technology, size matters more and more. The UK or even Germany are too small compared to the USA and China. Mr Trump is here to remind us every day!

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    3. I used to believe in and support the EEC – I am somewhat ashamed to say. In fact until Maastricht its defects were far fewer than now. But I never was so silly as to think it kept the peace. Nato did that and the cold war. And in the UK no-one EVER attributes our prosperity to the EU. To Mrs Thatcher perhaps. The EU loads us with taxes, regulations and prevents free trade with the outside world and has created the catastrophe of mass migration from east to west.

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    4. The EU was a fundamental contributor to keeping Germany in check and tying it to the architecture of (continental) Europe. Believing the opposite shows no knowledge of history or understanding of geopolitics. We are not old enough to remember the bloody wars fought on pour continent between countries for centuries, that now, largely because of the EU, have common interests and are best friends. The EU has just as much to do as Margaret Thatcher to do with the UKs prosperity by providing a large single market for the UK’s financial and service industries.

      I think that the UK (if it remains in one piece following Brexit) will find out the hard way what it means to be outside the EU. It is a pity for all the younger people who understand where the future lies and voted massively “stay”. I think that if there were a way to weight the 2016 vote by “outstanding life expectancy” it would be a resounding ‘stay’. Who says the simple arithmetic of democracy is fair or that most people understand what they are voting for (until it’s too late)?

      Regarding migration you have a very valid point but it is not a problem created by the EU. The Syrian war, initiated by the UK and France (with the full backing of the US) has brought all of us this huge number of Muslim refugees that the EU now has to manage. I would argue that the EU is making things easier for the UK by at least trying to distribute them more evenly over its territory. I honestly do not see why the UK (and to a lesser degree France) want out from a problem they created for everyone else! What should Germany and Austria say that bear the brunt of this mass migration?

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    5. Only Italy, Greece and Spain would have a migrant problem were it not for the EU, Schengen and Angela Merkel’s decision to forget the Dublin Agreement. But I was thinking about the disastrous depopulation of Eastern Europe and the creation suddenly of huge new Eastern European ethnic minorities in Western Europe. The EU is intentionally or not destroying nations as we have known them and trying to destroy the very idea of nations. As are Mr Macron and Mrs Merkel.

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    6. We are not old enough to remember the bloody wars fought on pour continent between countries for centuries, that now, largely because of the EU, have common interests and are best friends.

      The peace of Europe was brought about by Mutual Assured Destruction. The existence of the Soviet Union as a nuclear superpower guaranteed that peace.

      It's one of history's little ironies that if you want to thank someone for European peace you should thank Stalin for responding forthrightly and energetically to the threat to world peace posed by NATO.

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  10. I find the UK referendum on leaving the EU to be a brave move. It is vitally important that the EU is thoroughly and fundamentally reformed. Europe deserves a much better form of organised cooperation. And I would really support the UK attempting to create an alternative for Europe.

    The current deal proposed by Theresa May does NOT offer such an alternative. It is a disaster. I am sure that I could have negotiated better conditions than this dumb deal. I have been negotiating with Hollywood for decades. I could handle Mr Michel Bernier (the EU Chief negotiator)!!

    The EU must definitely learn their lesson and reform. People from other EU countries must also stand against the true nature of the EU. And we must all keep in mind that reforming the EU is just part and parcel of the fight against global supranational institutions. Institutions that create and enforce rules that benefit global businesses, the rich and the privileged!

    Love

    Pamela

    https://www.pamelaandersonfoundation.org/news/2018/12/8/brexit-and-i-also-starring-shakespeare-and-churchill

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    1. The EU must definitely learn their lesson and reform.

      The EU will never learn its lesson and it will never reform. The people who run the EU are not reasonable people. They cannot be negotiated with.

      The only chance would be to tear the whole thing down and start again. Go back to the original concept, the EEC. Unfortunately if that happened within a few years you'd have the EU monster back. If you set up a bureaucracy that bureaucracy will keep on growing. That's what bureaucracies do.

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  11. I would recommend you Paul and many of the people who comment here to this excellent article from the Washington post which of course you will detest

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2018/12/12/brexiteers-have-failed-so-they-blame-theresa-may/?fbclid=IwAR2upotvXE6CO2AIw5vKkb4L8vJL6fE-T9M3J6TheKfwiNYGhUnQJVBYhLw&noredirect=on&utm_term=.7527fe4ce998

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    1. Please read this. https://www.ft.com/content/5a12e850-ff93-11e8-ac00-57a2a826423e?fbclid=IwAR0AG-DpZQMsnI9YMF3b8EIY1Uskl1sKN_YZCpy3hn5PQUXXkNZuzCmlBSs

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    2. The dreadful prose of the emetic Madame Sikorski is available free of charge at the 'Washington Compost' by clicking on the 'browse free' button on the welcome page (first option, on the left).

      Sample:

      Now the game is up: The British prime minister, Theresa May, returned from her long negotiation with Brussels, which was not at all easy, and she has produced a deal with Europe, which is not at all profitable. This was not a surprise. Any Brexit deal involves bad choices. Either Britain pays an economic price for losing access to markets, or — if Britain stays inside European customs arrangements without helping to set the rules — there is a price to be paid in influence. With an eye on voters’ wallets, May chose the latter. And now — now! — after months of debate and thousands of hours of broadcast news and millions of words — most of the Brexiteers still will not accept their own responsibility for this outcome, the least bad of the bad outcomes on offer.

      They still do not want to admit that they misled the British people. They still pretend there is some better, alternate reality. And they are still jockeying for power.

      Instead of taking responsibility, they have blamed May — claiming, again falsely, that a different prime minister would get a different deal. That was the background to the vote of no confidence Tuesday night. In the hours leading up to the vote, rumors about possible successors were flying; despite having been proved wrong about almost everything, several of the most ardent Brexiteers still fancy themselves as prime minister.

      "Brexiteers... will not accept their own responsibility for this outcome, the least bad of the bad outcomes on offer."
      Get it?... Neither do I...

      This comment got 91 thumbs-up from WP readers:

      3 days ago
      The idiots who voted for Brexit are similar to the idiots who voted for Trump. Same stupidity and ignorance; different country.
      thumb_up 91

      Mark... "let me ask you to think of the EU as being to governments rather as quantitative easing is to fund managers. It is something that does most of the heavy lifting for you (whether you want it to or not), leaving you to grandstand around the edges, thinking you have power but actually operating in a fictional universe in which most of the real decisions are outside your control."
      Merryn Somerset Webb
      https://www.ft.com/content/5a12e850-ff93-11e8-ac00-57a2a826423e?fbclid=IwAR0AG-DpZQMsnI9YMF3b8EIY1Uskl1sKN_YZCpy3hn5PQUXXkNZuzCmlBSs


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