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Lockdowns did not cause a baby boom. Covid-19 had the opposite effect, as couples were wary of the future and of going into hospital.
The United Nations had predicted that the number of people in the EU countries would fall to 365 million by 2100, but a new study, published in The Lancet, predicts it will be 308 million by 2100, with the fertility rate, meaning the number of children born per woman on average — will drop to 1.41.
Births in Ukraine have fallen by 40% since 2014. 12.7 births per 1000 people were recorded in 1990 and 7.4 last year.
It's partly a riposte to the revolution of 2014 but it's part of a general trend.
In 2000, Latvia’s population stood at 2.4 million. At the start of this month it was 1.9 million.
Russia also saw a precipitous decline in its birthrate after the end of Communism, except from 2013 to 2015 when the number of births outnumbered deaths.
From the Wall St Journal on June 8:
In 2000, Latvia’s population stood at 2.4 million. At the start of this month it was 1.9 million.
From an article on Latvia in Politico in 2018:
No other country has had a more precipitous fall in population — 18.2 percent according to U.N. statistics. Only Latvia’s similarly fast-shriveling neighbor, Lithuania, with a 17.5 percent decrease, and Georgia, with a 17.2 percent drop, come close.
Russia also saw a precipitous decline in its birthrate after the end of Communism, except from 2013 to 2015 when the number of births outnumbered deaths.
From the Wall St Journal on June 8:
The number of live births in Russia fell for a fourth consecutive year in 2019, down by just over 400,000 births from 2016, according to official data, with the fertility rate standing at 1.5 births for each woman—far short of the 1.7 births per woman Mr. Putin is aiming for by 2024.
Europe is dying. Europeans are not having enough children. Nowhere is this more marked than in the former Soviet Union and its satellites.
Emigration to the West makes matters very much worse. Free movement in the EU has drained Eastern European EU member states.
The United Nations had predicted that the number of people in the EU countries would fall to 365 million by 2100, but a new study, published in The Lancet, predicts it will be 308 million by 2100, with the fertility rate, meaning the number of children born per woman on average — will drop to 1.41.
ReplyDeleteI wish I could say that I see reasons for optimism, but I really don't. And fertility rates are even lower in most of the East Asian countries. Modern society is inherently anti-natal.
I'm inlined to think that The Lancet is being optimistic in predicting a fall in fertility rates to 1.41. I expect fertility to drop well below that figure. In Singapore I believe it's 0.96.
Lockdowns did not cause a baby boom.
I was widely castigated a few months back when I suggested that COVID was going to lead to plunge in birth rates. I would have liked to be proven wrong.