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This is the most extraordinary and worrying war I have seen in a long lifetime following politics obsessively.
Everything is different now.
It is possible that the United States will be forced to leave the Middle East which would be good for every country in the world including the US, Israel excepted.
But can Israel and their Saudi ally prevent this?
In any case financial Armageddon looks likely.
Will Europeans leave Nato or are they too frightened of the Russian bugbear? A bugbear that is the product of, to put it very mildly, inept American diplomacy.
Nato as we know protects Nato members from the dangers created by belonging to Nato, rather as America protects the Middle East from dangers created by America protecting it.
Trump wants to obliterate something but it may be he obliterates American global rule.
History is full of such ironies, as Gibbon knew.
Even if Donald Trump and Iran reached a deal to stop fighting tomorrow, it would thus be another four months before markets regained some semblance of normality. Producers elsewhere cannot crank up output fast enough to recover past losses. The result is to shave off some 3% of planned global oil production this year. Every month Ras Laffan stays shut, the world loses around 7m tonnes of lng—nearly 2% of projected annual supply. And full capacity will, owing to the latest strikes, be lower than before. The upshot is that production will fall 4% short of demand this year even if Qatar started pumping what it can today.
The implications are stark. Global crude stocks, on course to end March in the bottom third of their historical range, will also keep dwindling for weeks after Hormuz reopens. As countries with thin buffers run out, they could trigger bouts of panic-buying and price spikes. Bidding wars for lng are equally likely. The last cargoes from Qatar to leave before Hormuz closed will reach Asia and Europe in days, says Ashley Sherman of Vortexa, a ship-tracker. After that, buyers must seek supplies elsewhere or go without, jeopardising the restocking of reserves for winter (see chart 4).
Oil and gas traders are still banking on a spring miracle. The world is praying for one. But even if Mr Trump and Iran’s ayatollahs grant this wish, the logistics of oil and gas will not be easily appeased. Energy markets will be living with the war’s fallout well into northern winter.
Fred Weir:
Through the hurricanes of bluster, and jungle of utterly contradictory statements, it's becoming more obvious with each passing hour that Trump is in way over his head, and has no idea what to do. This is better than his previous threat to "devastate" Iran, but solves nothing. And it's likely that neither Iran nor Trump's wag-the-dog ally Netanyahu will even let this dodge play out.
Alan Dershowitz, Epstein's lawyer and friend:
"This is the most important war since 1939, since Nazi Germany. Had President Trump been in charge in 1935, 1936, I think the Holocaust would have been prevented."
I am sure your last paragraph is tongue-in-cheek.
ReplyDeleteTrump has at least one thing in common with Hitler, he sees himself as a genius, even on matters he knows little about, so he sees no need to look for brilliant analysts and rely on them. It seems as if his most trusted advisor has been Netanyahu. Not a great choice. But what war was ever won by air power alone?
Trump never spelt out exactly what his war aims were, and I do wonder if he knew. He talked about regime change, but he also said he doubted it would happen. He talked about ending the Iranian nuclear program, but if that was his aim the war is not a killer blow to it. Did he not just do what Israel demanded of him?
Anything like “American global rule” ended years ago. The “unipolar moment” ran from the collapse of the Soviet Union until the arrival of China as an economic and military superpower. Great power politics is back. Russia has also got itself into the game by spending a far higher share of its budget on arms than anyone else.
What the US spends on its national debt interest has now overtaken its spending on armed forces — even though that is greater than the rest of the world’s put together.
This war is already looking like last year’s, when Trump launched strikes against the Houthis in March and had to back off in May. But what can he offer the Iranians to settle it, without spelling out that the US has lost the war?
So Trump gets to the end of the weapons he can afford to lose, and then he has to knock off. But the Iranians do not have to. If they just keep the oil tankers at bay, that’s an economic disaster. They could go much further and take out some or even all the desalination plants in the Gulf. Then there will be millions of displaced people heading in all directions, maybe half to Europe.
The US constitution created a new kind of monarch to replace George III. The Chinese must be hugging themselves with glee that they are dealing with a monarch who has only half a brain and a very mixed bunch of advisors.
CN
The Islamic Republic of Iran tyranny has been at war with the United States for 47 years - killing Americans, and others, in many parts of the world (although its main victims have been Iranians - of whom the IRI regime has murdered tens of thousands). It is also committed to "Hastening" the return of the 12th or "Hidden" Imam, by the use of nuclear weapons - hence the massive development of drone systems (including underground drone factories) in order to defend the weapons development, weapons development pushed back by the attacks of last year - pushed back, but the desire remains. Should the IRI manage to develop nuclear weapons, it would use them.
ReplyDeleteAs for the present stage of hostilities - the IRI air force and navy have been destroyed, and its ground based rocket systems have been reduced by about 90%. Nor has their been any "backing off" in relation to the Houthis - their rocket forces, and targeting systems, were significantly reduced - although they continue to infest parts of Yemen (which is very bad for the people of that land).
The IRI regime is clearly losing the war. But the Revolutionary Guard must be broken for the regime to actually fall.
Paul Marks.
Your second paragraph is absurd - Israeli propaganda. An Israeli bomb would stabilise the region. If Pakistan would give Iran one- or N Korea, if Pakistan is too afraid of Uncle Sam, there would b e no war. The only country that would use the A bomb is Israel. They may use it against Iran soon.
DeleteP.S. On the Government Debt of the United States - the gold debt was defaulted on as far back as 1933 (this default was de facto upheld by the Gold Clause cases before the Supreme Court in 1935), more recently gold obligations to other governments (as opposed to private citizens - who were cheated in 1933) were defaulted on in 1971. The present American Government Debt is entirely fiat Dollars - which the government can create (from nothing) in any amount it wishes. Of course, to inflate the debt away would massively increase prices - but is probably going to happen, although not yet (most likely the next Administration, whether Republican or Democrat, will inflate the debt away). Again the legal precedents for this were, tragically, set some ninety one years
ReplyDelete