Friday, 1 February 2019

Four possible Brexit outcomes and the worst is the most likely

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There are four possible policies as far as Brexit is concerned: staying in; leaving with no deal; joining the EEA (Norway); or something like Mrs. May's proposal to negotiate a bespoke deal while promising to pay £39 billion Danegeld.


Since she wants this and so does Jeremy Corbyn, Mrs. May's policy that was so heavily defeated looks the most likely. I regret this very much. I'd prefer leaving with no deal and leaving on Norwegian terms. 


I am inclined to think I'd also prefer to stay in than be humiliated in the way we shall be if we adopt the government's policy. Inside the EU we could wage a guerrilla war until eventually we left on good terms.


Only a week ago Tory former Foreign Secretary William Hague (who was Remain) was warning that another referendum would be disastrous but was looking increasingly likely. Tony Blair, John Major and many politicians in the House like Dominic Grieve were seizing their moment to argue for another 'people's vote'. Now it seems to be almost forgotten. The country does not want it.


If we do leave, a real border with border infrastructure of some kind in Ireland is necessary and unobjectionable, unless we become a European vassal state. The stupid woman (in the words of Jeremy Corbyn) who is leading my country should have said this from the start.

15 comments:

  1. What did Britons vote for in 2016? Did they vote to leave the EU? Or did they vote to ask for permission to leave the EU? Obviously the former. If you have the right to negotiate for your sovereignty, you’re sovereign. If you can’t walk away from the negotiating table, you’re not. When the two parties sat down at the table, Britain had already exited the EU. This is an appropriate place to negotiate the best relations possible with allies and partners. But at the end of the day, all sovereignty is no-deal sovereignty. Britain has it. It is now debating whether to surrender it.

    Christopher Caldwell
    https://spectator.us/europe-britain-brexit-bless/

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  2. The Remain forces in Parliament now want delay. They have failed to say what we could agree after March that we have been unable to agree in the 2 years 9 months since the vote, and failed to spell out why the EU would let us have a delay to renegotiate and on what terms. The UK has no plans to offer candidates for the European parliament so will not be part of the full governance arrangements of the EU from that date. We need to get on with leaving. I am still pressing the UK government to offer a free trade agreement and use of Article 24 of the GATT to avoid tariffs and other new barriers when we leave in March.

    John Redwood
    http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/

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    Replies
    1. Article 24 for those who have read it states that both sides in the agreement must have a framework agreed and timeframed for the trade deal before it applies, unlikely in the case of UK and EU as negotiations have not even begun, Redwood spouting uninformed rubbish as usual.

      Cecile

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    2. World Trade Organization director general Roberto Azevêdo says Britain will Trade Fine after Brexit

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iPUW1TFT7CY

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    3. of course trade won't stop that's obvious there will be no blockade, but the TERMS will not be agreed full WTO tariffs will apply both ways and that's already hitting. I work with an engineering firm in Falkirk and we have just put a shipment bound for Tanazania on hold because we simply cannot tell the customer what the status will be on arrival. He had already paid for those and is disgruntled enough that he cancelled two future orders and switched to an EU supplier. That's nearly ten million lost from our turnover in one customer . We are now laying off people because we can't guarantee to ANY customers overseas delivery terms beyond April.So please stop your idealistic evangelicalism because in the real world Brexit is killing British export.
      Cecile

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    4. 'Brexit is killing British export'

      Exports of goods and services from the UK rose 0.4 percent from a month earlier to an all-time high of GBP 53.95 billion in November 2018.

      Forecast:

      Exports in the United Kingdom is expected to be 54400.00 GBP Million by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Exports in the United Kingdom to stand at 55500.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom Exports is projected to trend around 57700.00 GBP Million in 2020, according to our econometric models.

      Related:

      UK Jobless Rate at Near 44-Year Low
      UK Annual Inflation Rate at 23-Month Low of 2.1%
      UK Trade Deficit Narrows in November
      UK Q3 GDP Annual Growth Confirmed at 1.5%
      UK Q3 GDP Growth Confirmed at Near 2-Year High

      https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/exports

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    5. I am thinking of requiring a gmail address for people who comment on my blog - would that incommode you?

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    6. Not at all... Where to send it?

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    7. I mean you would need to sign it using a gmail address to leave comments.

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  3. The Norway option and joining the European Economic Area (EEA)

    This is simply a variant of staying in the EU, possibly a bit cheaper (Table 3). It has been
    described as “government by email” because it is closely bound to Brussels, and at £230 per
    person it is not much less than the gross figure of £290 which Britain has been paying of late to
    the EU. It is simply the EU Single Market and Customs Union for goods minus access to
    Norway’s fishing grounds (which the EU will not replicate for Britain). Various sections of the
    Labour party, along with a small number of Conservatives are espousing this for some reason. It requires “Free Movement of persons” and is squarely aimed at Destination (1) and therefore
    would not, could not, deliver British independence. It would be more expensive than any of A,
    B, C and leads nowhere. It will not therefore be considered further in this paper24. It is also
    certain the EU would not want to enter another complex negotiation to limit free movement as
    some advocates seem to think.

    Professor Stephen Bush
    http://stephenbush.net/
    24 Even further away from Independence than WA. Ex-politicians like Tony Blair and Michael Heseltine have been campaigning to reverse Brexit and go back to the EU.

    https://europeanfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/TWO-AND-A-HALF-ROUTES-TO-BREXIT-INDEPENDENCE.pdf

    Remember, the Article 50 period of 24 months is a maximum, every month we remain within the Union costs us another £850m in net contributions.

    In whose interest is it to prolong negotiations ?

    https://facts4eu.org/your-articles/hard-soft-brexit-facts

    Sky Data interviewed a nationally representative sample of 2,036 UK adults by SMS on 30 January 2019:

    39% would prefer a no-deal Brexit
    34% would like to see a deal without a backstop
    27% would most prefer Mrs May's initial deal

    https://news.sky.com/story/sky-data-poll-public-prefer-a-deal-instead-of-hard-brexit-11622551

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  4. Brexit Bunglers brought this mess upon themselves, then howl that Europe is being arrogant. No wonder the world has zero sympathy....

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  5. ' No wonder the world has zero sympathy....'

    Die Welt and Le Monde?

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  6. When all this is over, the psychology of the fanatical “moderates” who oppose Brexit at all costs will make an interesting case study. How do people who pride themselves on being enlightened, broad-minded, civilised, caring and so forth become so absolutely beside themselves at a democratic decision of their fellow-countrymen?

    I do not yet have the explanation, but it may be something to do with guilt at having let the thing happen at all. In the well-ordered, moderate world run by like-minded persons from London and the posher university towns, the old saying that “If voting ever changed anything, they’d abolish it” has been not a bitter joke but a guiding principle. Now there is a very real possibility that voting will change something, they are furious.

    CHARLES MOORE
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/02/04/tories-must-fair-firm-deselecting-remainer-mps/

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