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Philip Collins in the Times on Thursday was probably right in thinking that Theresa May's terrible plan will win.
There are, as I said before, four options: a second referendum followed by no Brexit; leaving with no deal, which I think the least bad of the options; Mrs May's plan (it is not a deal but a plan to start negotiations after we concede a huge amount), which might involve never leaving the customs union; or a Norway type deal.
Footnote. I heard that joke made, by a left-wing economist who had worked for Harold Wilson, in my first week at Cambridge. A local Tory councillor who repeated it was forced to resign some years ago, as it is considered hate speech in England. What a world.
"When Tory Brexiteers note that a second referendum could now be more likely, it helps to discipline them in favour of the deal. The more likely a referendum seems, the less likely it becomes. This is a second order effect that is probably greatly to Mr Corbyn’s liking.
"For the Tories this has helped to stir the political blood. Tribalism is kicking in. They know that failure to take Britain out of the EU poses an existential threat to the Tory party. The Conservative vote is such a Leave vote that a failure to complete the mission would be an abject political disaster. Anyone who cares about the political fortunes of the Tory party (and we can hardly expect Tory MPs not to) realises that they absolutely have to do this."
There are, as I said before, four options: a second referendum followed by no Brexit; leaving with no deal, which I think the least bad of the options; Mrs May's plan (it is not a deal but a plan to start negotiations after we concede a huge amount), which might involve never leaving the customs union; or a Norway type deal.
All but the hundred or more convinced Brexiteers on the Tory benches, a few Labour MPs and the good old DUP would prefer Mrs May's proposals to leaving with no deal.
They might like another referendum more, but that would destroy both parties.
No-one talks any more about Norway. Why not, even at this late late stage?
Given the choice between staying in and leaving in the way Mrs May wants, it is very hard to choose. Probably the damage to democracy by staying in and the humiliation swing it to her deal.
Daniel Hannan prefers a delay in which we renegotiate our departure, but the EU will not renegotiate it. No Brexit seems attractive now but MPs will never wear it.
Cancelling Article 50 and trying again later would not work. A strategic cancellation would weaken belief in the ballot box irreparably. The only upside would be a huge wave of support for a new anti-EU party.
It is Mrs. May's way or staying in, I fear.
Cancelling Article 50 and trying again later would not work. A strategic cancellation would weaken belief in the ballot box irreparably. The only upside would be a huge wave of support for a new anti-EU party.
It is Mrs. May's way or staying in, I fear.
Both represent a terrible national humiliation and a lesson to other Europeans that attempt to escape are doomed to failure.
Unless someone can persuade her to go for Norway pro tem. But she is far too stubborn.
Unless someone can persuade her to go for Norway pro tem. But she is far too stubborn.
I feel like the Irishman who, asked the way to Limerick, said
If I were going to Limerick, I wouldn't start from here.
Footnote. I heard that joke made, by a left-wing economist who had worked for Harold Wilson, in my first week at Cambridge. A local Tory councillor who repeated it was forced to resign some years ago, as it is considered hate speech in England. What a world.
and a lesson to other Europeans that attempt to escape are doomed to failure.
ReplyDeleteThat's presumably what it's all about as far as the EU is concerned. I think they'd be glad to see Britain go, but if the Italians for example left it would be the end of the EU.
I'd say the EU has already achieved its objective.
It's not just that they've made further escape attempts impossible. They have also ensured that in future all prisoners will be docile and well-behaved. When EU nations know that even threatening to leave is no longer an option they will have no choice other than to do exactly what they're told. If Germany says jump you ask, how high?
I wonder if the Visegrad nations have figured out what all this means - that when they joined the EU they in practice signed away their independence? Are the Poles pleased that they are now more thoroughly (and more permanently) a part of the German Empire than they were in 1939-45? Do they understand that leaving the Warsaw Pact was easier than leaving the EU? Are Polish leaders proud of their achievement in making Poland a slave state once again?
The Poles and Hungarians are restless but the graduates and people who work for multinationals are globalists.
DeleteThe Poles and Hungarians are restless but the graduates and people who work for multinationals are globalists.
DeleteYes. And once they joined the EU it was inevitable that their elites would adopt the full-blown globalist/social justice agenda. By joining the EU they joined a death cult. Their leaders condemned them to national and cultural suicide.
The globalist Polish and Hungarian elites will impose globalism/social justice on their nations. They will have no difficulty in doing so since they can count on the zealous backing of the EU leadership and of the United States.