[I think it was always obvious that pushing Russians out of Ukraine was impossible, because of lack of manpower, but a clever Lithuanian friend was convinced otherwise.]
Reflecting on Ukraine’s chances of success against Russia, he said: “My view is that they would not win.”
“Could not win, even with the right resources?” he was asked.
“No,” he replied.
Pressed further by The Independent, he was asked: “ Even with the right resources?”
“No, they haven’t got the manpower,” the former commando said.
“Unless we were to go in with them – which we won’t do because Ukraine is not an existential issue for us. It clearly is for the Russians, by the way,” he said on World of Trouble [a podcast].
“We’ve decided because it’s not an existential issue, we will not go to war. We are, you can argue – and I absolutely accept it – in some sort of hybrid war [with Russia]. But that’s not the same as a shooting war in which our soldiers are dying in large numbers.
“Despite our attraction for all they’ve achieved and our genuine affections for so many Ukrainians, I’m just still in this school that says this is not in our vital national interests.
“My instinct is that the best Ukraine can do, and you already see President Zelensky, who’s an inspirational leader … the best they can do is a sort of a score draw.”
Saturday, 18 October 2025
Britain’s most senior army officer, Field Marshal Lord Richards, thinks Ukraine can only hope for a score draw
Royal dukedoms are short lived
"Where is Bohun, where's Mowbray, where's Mortimer? Nay, which is more and most of all, where is Plantagenet? They are entombed in the urns and sepulchres of mortality." Lord Chief Justice Sir Ranulph Crewe in his judgment in the the Oxford Peerage Case 1625.
The Duke of Cumberland and Teviotdale and the Duke of Albany were deprived of their titles in 1917 for making war against King George V. There are heirs to these titles who could petition the King to be granted them.
Robert Louis Stevenson on youth and old age
Indeed, by the report of our elders, this nervous preparation for old age is only trouble thrown away. We fall on guard, and after all it is a friend who comes to meet us. After the sun is down and the west faded, the heavens begin to fill with shining stars. So, as we grow old, a sort of equable jog-trot of feeling is substituted for the violent ups and downs of passion and disgust; the same influence that restrains our hopes, quiets our apprehensions; if the pleasures are less intense, the troubles are milder and more tolerable; and in a word, this period for which we are asked to hoard up everything as for a time of famine, is, in its own right, the richest, easiest, and happiest of life. Nay, by managing its own work and following its own happy inspiration, youth is doing the best it can to endow the leisure of age. A full, busy youth is your only prelude to a self-contained and independent age; and the muff inevitably develops into the bore. There are not many Doctor Johnsons, to set forth upon their first romantic voyage at sixty-four. If we wish to scale Mont Blanc or visit a thieves’ kitchen in the East End, to go down in a diving dress or up in a balloon, we must be about it while we are still young. It will not do to delay until we are clogged with prudence and limping with rheumatism, and people begin to ask us: “What does Gravity out of bed?” Youth is the time to go flashing from one end of the world to the other both in mind and body; to try the manners of different nations; to hear the chimes at midnight; to see sunrise in town and country; to be converted at a revival; to circumnavigate the metaphysics, write halting verses, run a mile to see a fire, and wait all day long in the theatre to applaud Hernani. There is some meaning in the old theory about wild oats; and a man who has not had his green-sickness and got done with it for good, is as little to be depended on as an unvaccinated infant. “It is extraordinary,” says Lord Beaconsfield, one of the brightest and best preserved of youths up to the date of his last novel, “it is extraordinary how hourly and how violently change the feelings of an inexperienced young man.” And this mobility is a special talent entrusted to his care; a sort of indestructible virginity; a magic armour, with which he can pass unhurt through great dangers and come unbedaubed out of the miriest passages. Let him voyage, speculate, see all that he can, do all that he may; his soul has as many lives as a cat; he will live in all weathers, and never be a halfpenny the worse. Those who go to the devil in youth, with anything like a fair chance, were probably little worth saving from the first; they must have been feeble fellows—creatures made of putty and pack-thread, without steel or fire, anger or true joyfulness, in their composition; we may sympathise with their parents, but there is not much cause to go into mourning for themselves; for to be quite honest, the weak brother is the worst of mankind.
Friday, 17 October 2025
The Duke of York will no longer use his title, the Palace has just announced
When I heard he was being stripped of his dukedom I felt this was absolutely wrong. Titles of honour are a form of land.
Lord Melbourne liked the Garter because there was no damned merit in it.
The same should go for dukedoms.
Actually I'm pleased to say, the Duke will not cease to be a duke but will be called simply Prince Andrew.
He will be stripped of the Garter though.
Will his former wife 'Fergie' be Sarah, Princess Andrew?
I shared a tiny room in the House of Lords, with no natural light, with a very lovely man, John Bartrip, whose job it was to have custody of the Great Seal and place it on the document that created this dukedom.
He kept the secret from me admirably.
Forty years later...
To Hades with that harridan Emily Mathis, whom I am very ashamed went to my college. Her interview with the Duke which got him into this mess was sadistic.
Is my old friend Andrew Lownie's new book the proximate cause of this? I expect so.
Rod Liddle was right when he said Prince Andrew had the IQ of a corgi. That was a propos an embarrassingly stupid speech he gave to a British Chamber of Commerce in some remote country in which he said everyone bribes.
But dukes don't have to be pleasant or intelligent, though some are.
Our monarchy sadly is democratic.
England becomes more and more egalitarian.
American but without America's buzz, though happily without America's huge corruption.
Life and Death
John Morley
'SUPPOSE the worst to happen, I said, addressing a portly jeweller from Cheapside; 'suppose even yourself to be the victim ; il n'y a pas d'homme nécessaire. We should miss you for a day or two upon the Woodford branch : but the great mundane movement would still go on, the gravel walks of your villa would still be rolled, dividends would still be paid at the Bank, omnibuses would still run, there would still be the old crush at the corner of Fenchurch Street.' All was of no avail. Nothing could moderate, in the bosom of the great English middle class, their passionate, absorbing, almost bloodthirsty, clinging to life.
Matthew Arnold. [I knew Fenchurch St and it's unfashionable railway terminus very well and this is the second reference to it I have read in literature in the widest meaning of the word, the first being a detective story by Baroness Orczy which I recently reread.]
Thursday, 16 October 2025
Quotations
"America had often been discovered before Columbus, but it had always been hushed up". Oscar Wilde
"Like the old Austro-Hungarian empire, the EU continues because it cannot be either reformed or replaced." Robert Tombs
"Drugs are instead of people." Eric Berne
Books
“I have enjoyed greatly the second blooming that comes when you finish the life of the emotions and of personal relations; and suddenly find – at the age of fifty, say – that a whole new life has opened before you, filled with things you can think about, study, or read about… It is as if a fresh sap of ideas and thoughts was rising in you.” Dame Agatha Christie, An Autobiography, 1977
Monday, 13 October 2025
Joe Biden could have made this Gaza deal 2 years ago but deliberately chose not to, saying to Kamala Harris "I am a Zionist". I remember when I thought that Biden was not quite as bad as Putin.
<And what [Gershon] Baskin has said, and he wrote
this in the Times of Israel recently, is that in September 2024,
the same deal that was just made, but tens of thousands of lives lost later
was on the table and it was not only on the table. Every side was ready to commit to it except the Biden administration wasn't pushing
Netanyahu or Israel. Why? What else was
happening in September 2024? That's when Israel began its campaign to maul Hezbollah, to begin to assassinate all of its leadership, to assassinate Hassan Nasallah as he was negotiating a ceasefire as he was working on negotiating a cessation of conflict in the south of Lebanon and they killed him. And the Biden administration, the
people around Biden, especially Brett McGurk, who today is working for the Saudis in a series of Saudi arms industry linked tech firms, Brett McGurk became so enthralled with the idea of destroying Hezbollah along with Amos Hochstein, the Israeli born negotiator for Lebanon for Biden, that Biden sat around and did nothing.
"Ukraine hit Russian energy sites with US help"
From the FT:
Ukraine hit Russian energy sites with US help. Trump administration has supported Kyiv’s operations since summer in a co-ordinated push to weaken Moscow.
The US intelligence helps Kyiv shape route planning, altitude, timing and mission decisions, enabling Ukraine’s long-range, one-way attack drones to evade Russian air defences, said the officials familiar with the matter.
The infantilisation of Western Grand Strategy – and the rise of Eurasia
'At its core three things now define Westernism: a rejection of the international laws and norms that the Americans themselves played so vital a role in establishing after WWII, a repudiation of diplomacy in favour of unilateralism and bullying, and a determination to maintain a primacy in world affairs that it has already effectively lost.' I agree with most of this article from New Zealand, except that I am agnostic about whether Russia is going to defeat Ukraine. I hope not.
Pavel Durov
I’m turning 41, but I don’t feel like celebrating.
Our generation is running out of time to save the free Internet built for us by our fathers.
What was once the promise of the free exchange of information is being turned into the ultimate tool of control.
Once-free countries are introducing dystopian measures such as digital IDs (UK), online age checks (Australia), and mass scanning of private messages (EU).
Germany is persecuting anyone who dares to criticize officials on the Internet. The UK is imprisoning thousands for their tweets. France is criminally investigating tech leaders who defend freedom and privacy.
Sunday, 12 October 2025
This sounds like me
"The people on the right make me hate the right, the people on the left make me hate the left. In fact, with a man of the right, I am on the left; with a man of the left, I am on the right."
Emil Cioran
Sic transit Jilly
I do not believe in this peace in Gaza
Quotations
"But above all, in order to be, never try to seem." Albert Camus
“The perpetual hesitation of the neurotic to launch out into life is readily explained by his desire to stand aside so as not to get involved in the dangerous struggle for existence. But anyone who refuses to experience life must stifle his desire to live—in other words, he must commit partial suicide” Carl Jung
Thursday, 9 October 2025
Quotations
John Owen, Oliver Cromwell's chaplain
Life Magazine, June 1970.
"Having rid his party of conservatives, that self-described “Heir to Blair”, David Cameron, condemned the Tories to share Labour’s fate: the collapse of the two parties, viewed in narrow partisan terms by the Westminster lobby, is more accurately the collapse of the shared ideology they undertook, between them, to impose on Britain."
"'From the river to the sea' is in the original charter of Israel's Likud Party and is the stated policy of Israel's current government. So how can it be antisemitic?"
Tuesday, 7 October 2025
Terrorism and making terms with murder
"Neither Jewish ethics nor Jewish tradition can disqualify terrorism as a means of combat. We are very far from having any moral qualms as far as our national war goes. We have before us the command of the Torah, whose morality surpasses that of any other body of laws in the world: ‘Ye shall blot them out to the last man.’
"But first and foremost, terrorism is for us a part of the political battle being conducted under the present circumstances, and it has a great part to play: speaking in a clear voice to the whole world, as well as to our wretched brethren outside this land, it proclaims our war against the occupier."
Future Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir (Likud) in 1943, when he was one of the leaders of the Stern Gang.
Wednesday, 1 October 2025
Sigmund Freud
Foreign states putting propaganda on Wikipedia
Are the IDF in Gaza heroes or cowards?
Mr. Dajani, the manager of the oldest hotel in Jerusalem the New Imperial, told me on my last visit some years ago that he looks at young Israeli men and sees that they are softer than the ones he vividly remembers conquering the old city of Jerusalem in 1967.
I love that man and wish I knew his thoughts about what is happening now but they are not hard to guess.
I think the tens of thousands or, according to an Israeli investigator working for the UN, hundreds of thousands of killings (mostly of civilians) in Gaza show the weakness not the strength of the IDF.
The killings are not the actions of heroes.
I understand their reluctance to enter tunnels.
Killing people on the surface is much safer but those people are not usually Hamas.
Monday, 29 September 2025
Quotations
Caitlin Johnstone@caitoz
If I looked out my window and saw people massacring children, I'd probably think thoughts like "That's horrible!" and "How can I stop this?"
The furthest thing from my mind would be thoughts like "What religion are they?" or "Their religion is very relevant to any discussions we might have about this massacre" or "We should definitely be very careful about discussing this massacre because we don't want to offend people who have the same religion as the people doing the massacre." It would never occur to me to consider such things, much less that such considerations should be central to all discourse about the massacre for years on end.
The Wailing Wall
'I concede with sorrow that the baseless fanaticism of our people is in part to be blamed for the awakening of Arab distrust. I can raise no sympathy at all for the misdirected piety which transforms a piece of a Herodian wall into a national relic, thereby offending the feelings of the natives.' Sigmund Freud in a letter dated 26 February 1930 declining a request to sign a petition condemning the Arab riots of 1929, in which more than 133 Jewish settlers were killed by Arabs.
Sunday, 28 September 2025
Quotations
Monday, 22 September 2025
41.2% of pupils in Vienna's primary and secondary schools identify as Muslim
April 2025 — 41.2% of pupils in Vienna's primary and secondary schools identify as Muslim. A year ago, this figure stood at 39.4%. Viktor Orban sees Islam as a threat to Hungary.
Anti-Semitism
As a pedant I feel like saying the IDF is very much more anti-Semitic than Hamas measured by the number of Semites it kills.
Israel is the most anti-Semitic country in the world, if words are used accurately.
I dislike false pedantry - for example I try to say England to mean UK - but I think this useful pedantry.
It even hints that all Semites are equally important.
Another talk between Chas Freeman and Pascal Lottaz
The shock within the EU and NATO and especially in the UK is the result of the fact that we've all been living in the midst of the most intensive information war the world has ever seen.
You have people who think, who thought that it was a good idea, this is the Biden Administration, not to discuss anything with the adversary on the battlefield. How that was supposed to accomplish anything is unclear but there was no diplomacy at all, there was only fighting.
Sunday, 21 September 2025
Quotations
Voltaire:
"Every man is a creature of the age in which lives and few are able to raise themselves above the ideas of time."
Whitney Webb in 2019:
Claims of Epstein’s links and his involvement in a sophisticated, well-funded sexual blackmail operation have, surprisingly, spurred few media outlets to examine the history of intelligence agencies both in the U.S. and abroad conducting similar sexual blackmail operations, many of which also involved underage prostitutes.
Saturday, 20 September 2025
"We have gone down into the mud with Israel and I don't think we're going to get out." Former US Ambassador Chas Freeman talking to Pascal Lottaz
A very interesting talk on Neutrality Studies. All the talks on Neutrality Studies that I have heard are.
The message: the USA is behaving like a rogue state and the West has lost its moral standing.
I could not agree more.
Trump on dead babies tonight
REPORTER: Is Israel committing genocide?
TRUMP: Did anyone commit genocide on October 7th? What do you think about THAT? THAT was genocide, at the highest level. Murder, genocide, call it whatever you want. Babies chopped in half, heads cut off, arms cut off.
Friday, 19 September 2025
In a nutshell from the Chinese
My friend posted this short 'reel', an interchange between an Israeli and a Chinese, on Facebook and it is worth seeing.
Unfortunately the number of 70,000 civilians mentioned by the Chinese in the clip is a very big underestimate.A former Israeli army commander, Herzi Halevi, has confirmed this week that more than 200,000 Palestinians have been killed or injured in the war in Gaza.
That too unfortunately is a big underestimate.
On Monday (September 15), four UN special rapporteurs – Francesca Albanese, the United Nations special rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Palestinian territory occupied since 1967, Irene Khan, special rapporteur on the right to freedom of opinion and expression, Mary Lawlor, special rapporteur on the situation of human rights defenders; and George Katrougalos, suggested approximately 680,000 Palestinians have reportedly been killed by the Israeli Defence Forces over the past 710 days.
“If this number is confirmed, then 380,000 of these are infants under five, 1,581 earth workers killed in Gaza, 252 is the number of the journalists, and 346 of the United Nation staff,” notes Francesca Albanese,
St Januarius, pray for us! 5,000 men embraced the Christian faith even before he was beheaded thanks to him
Being human and avoiding suffering, American presidents and polemicists
“People do not realize just how much they are putting at risk when they don’t accept what Life presents them with, the questions and tasks that Life sets them.
"When they resolve to spare themselves the pain and suffering, they owe to their nature. In so doing, they refuse to pay Life’s dues and for this very reason, Life then often leads them astray.
"If we don’t accept our own destiny, a different kind of suffering takes its place: a neurosis develops, and I believe that that Life which we have to live is not as bad as a neurosis. If I have to suffer, then let it be from my reality. A neurosis is a much greater curse! In general, a neurosis is a replacement for an evasion, an unconscious desire to cheat Life, to avoid something. One cannot do more than Live what one really is".
Thursday, 18 September 2025
Wednesday, 17 September 2025
Blogging the televised royal banquet at Windsor Castle
Mr Trump is 3 years older than the King but, with no disrespect to the Queen, his wife looks much better.
Mr Trump should not address "William and Kate".
The King is hubristic in assuming the US and UK will exist for the next 250 years and beyond. I wouldn't bet on it.
Sunday, 14 September 2025
On Charlie Kirk's and other murders
I am not sure why but I am very, very saddened by the murder of Charlie Kirk, though he had only been a name to me before his death.
And by the Israeli attack on Doha. I do not know if Donald Trump is to blame for that.
Christianity and women
As Mr. Gladstone said, Christianity has in all times and places raised the condition of women. Whether it has recently raised it too far, as a young Catholic priest once told me it had, is far too controversial a theme for this blog. Women will decide whether feminism is a good or bad idea over the next fifty years.