"NATO exists to manage the risks created by its existence,” Professor Richard Sakwa once wrote in an attempt to articulate the absurdity of the military alliance's provocative nature on the world stage. At some point Australians must wake up to the fact that this is equally true of AUKUS: we're told the military alliance exists for our protection, but its very existence makes us less safe.
"As former prime minister Paul Keating recently observed in the Australian Financial Review, this government's As former prime minister Paul Keating recently observed in the Australian Financial Review, this government's justification for the AUKUS alliance and the obscenely expensive nuclear submarine deal that goes with it has been all over the map, first claiming that it's to protect our own shores from a Chinese attack, then pivoting to claiming it's to protect sea lanes from being blocked off by China after Keating dismantled the first claim at the National Press Club two weeks ago.
"One thing Canberra has struggled to do is to explain exactly why China would launch an unprovoked attack on Australia or its shipping routes; the former couldn't yield any benefit that would outweigh the immense cost even if it succeeded, and the latter is absurd because open trade routes are what makes China an economic superpower in the first place."
Friday, 31 March 2023
Caitlin Johnstone, though a left-winger, is right
Quotations
It’s notable that the Anti-Disinformation machine, a clear sequel to the Military-Industrial Complex, doesn’t trumpet the virtues of the “free world” but rather the “rules-based international order,” within which (as Siegel points out) people like former Labor Secretary Robert Reich talk about digital deletion as “necessary to protect American democracy.” Matt Taibbi today in Racket News.
Communist China trying to bring peace to the world
'Xi appears to have personally played a part in re-establishing diplomatic relations between Tehran and Riyadh.'
How interesting that the Sunni Shia conflict might be brought to an end by Red China, if the world is very lucky!
Iran is not the West's enemy, nor is China, nor Russia.
As Pogo said in that cartoon long ago, we have seen the enemy and it is us.
Wednesday, 29 March 2023
Admiral John Kirby says the USA rejects a ceasefire in Ukraine
This is Glenn Greenwald talking to Tucker Carlson on 21st March.
"From the very beginning, it's been clear that the United States wants this war to continue and wants it to go on for as long as possible because they have no interest in protecting Ukraine. They instead want to sacrifice Ukraine, have Ukraine destroyed in order to advance what they think is the United States' political interest, geopolitical interest of weakening Russia."
"The lie just got revealed. If you listen to what John Kirby said, they asked him are the Ukrainians willing to have a ceasefire and he said not only won't they, we won't allow it either. Essentially admitting finally what's long been obvious that the country funding the war, providing the arms for the war, which is the United States determines if and when the war ends, and we obviously don't want that war to end."
Here are Admiral Kirby's words.
Tuesday, 28 March 2023
US trained soldiers were responsible for 8 coups in West Africa since 2008
Monday, 27 March 2023
Pride goeth before a fall
If anyone had suggested America help bring about regime change in Moscow in the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s or 1980s they would have been mad. Nor when Russia invaded Hungary or Czechoslovakia did the Americans think of doing anything.
When the Russians invaded Afghanistan the Anglo-Americans used the mujahedin to fight the Communists, something which was absolutely the right thing to do but which did convince Osama bin Laden that he had defeated the Russian infidels and could therefore defeat the Anglo-American ones.
If Putin does go with American help, the Americans may regret it as they regret sponsoring Osama bin Laden. But that is how history goes.
There have been many definitions of history but the best is one damn thing after another.
Most wars achieve things the opposite of what those who start them want. That is true for Chamberlain and Daladier declaring war on Germany and Germany invading Poland, for example.
Both Putin and much more so the USA are being very hubristic. "Pride goes before destruction, a haughty spirit before a fall" (Proverbs 16:18).
Remember that many in Washington want regime change in Russia and the break up of the Russian Federation. I do too, but only if it happens without foreign involvement.
Quite a few people in Washington see this war as a providential way of undermining and removing Vladimir Putin.
Sunday, 26 March 2023
Another taxi driver's view on the war
The taxi driver just now had no doubts. The war is entirely America's fault and peaceful countries like Romania are dragged into it. Romania has no interests at stake but President Ioannis has pushed Romania into it. Zelensky or rather the shadowy rich men behind him are much to blame.
It all makes money for the American armaments companies.
The (Romanian) lady I dined with thinks the same.
I better say more in order not to be misunderstood.
I don't agree with the drivers who blame America and not Putin for Russia’s invasion, although I agreed with this one completely about Zelensky and the oligarch whose creature he is.
Putin is wholly to blame, but in another way America is also much to blame, if that makes sense.
Causation is complex.
As my friend from last night told me a year ago, America had placed Putin in a lose-lose position.
American mistakes provoked a very dangerous man and America should have known better.
President Obama did know better but President Biden, the foreign policy expert who has been wrong about every foreign policy issue, got it badly wrong.
Is he as bad a president as George W Bush?
He might turn out to be, which is a terrible thought.
Vox populi, vox dei: Bucharest taxi drivers talk about the Ukrainian war
Taxi drivers know everything. I heard Michael Clarke, Director General of the Royal United Services Institute from 2007 to 2015, speaking in Cluj and saying Trump being POTUS was like having a New York cab driver as president.
Saturday, 25 March 2023
BBC disinformation officer, heal thyself
Professor Kathleen Stock is a left-wing lesbian feminist. She left her post at the University of Sussex after being ostracised because she thought men who had become women in fact were still men.
<When it comes to examples of disinformation, meanwhile, Spring has a tendency to roll relatively reasonable cases of political wrongthink together with madly conspiratorial ravings, suggesting that she doesn’t really differentiate between them. If you start off as an anti-vaxxer or lockdown sceptic, she seems to imply, you might easily end up a climate-change denier, or even a believer in a New World order. When talking about QAnon supporters, she clearly feels it’s important to throw in that they are “pro-Trump” as well — as if being a member of QAnon wasn’t quite bad enough.>
Talking about Lugansk and Donetsk, Swiss Colonel Jacques Baud has a different view.
Friday, 24 March 2023
Edward Luttwak in Unherd last month
'Looking ahead, there are only two possible major military moves for Russia. Following the mobilisation of 300,000 reservists last autumn, Putin’s army is now larger than when it invaded last February. Then, the aim was not to start a war but to end it, with a quick victory forecast by Russian and US Intelligence, both equally intoxicated by the false promise of “post-kinetic” warfare; this would combine electronic propaganda with cyber-attacks on everything from military headquarters to civilian infrastructures. Generals who had never fought against patriotic Europeans but only against Middle Eastern sectarians, if they had fought at all, who considered tanks old-fashioned and had limitless respect for “information warfare”, heavily influenced the totally wrong estimates that misled both Biden and Putin.'
That's interesting. Putin and the US expected a quick victory for him, just as Hitler and the British expected Germany to defeat Communist Russia quickly in 1941. (Forgive the Hitler analogy but it is necessary this time.)
I blame the Kremlin for all the lives lost in the fighting in Donetsk since 2014
'I first arrived in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk in April 2014, after local “separatists”, backed and coordinated by Russia, had seized the municipal building. Thugs in masks and baseball bats were hanging pro-Russia banners over the balcony and skulking in the central square. There were roughly 1,000 of them in this city of one million: strange for a place that I was repeatedly told was so pro-Russian.
'From there I moved onto Luhansk. I was inside its municipal building when a different gallery of thugs — this time armed with automatic weapons — announced the establishment of the separatist “People’s Republic of Luhansk”. Later, in the city of Sloviansk, where “protestors” seized the police station, I saw for the first time what I was certain were Russian troops: masked and without insignia. This was, I realised, now a front line. Ukraine no longer simply faced protests in the East; it was at war with Russia.'
The full, simplistic and rather annoying article is here.
Paul Kenyon, who was there at the time, told me that 90 percent of the inhabitants of what became the Donbass 'republics' were indifferent to the revolution in Kiev but pro-Russians appeared with guns and scared them.
A senior British diplomat who knows the situation well told me the local people 'just want to be left alone'.
Russian monarchist and nationalist Igor Girkin claimed that he managed to create the 'republics' despite indifference from the inhabitants and the Kremlin. “I was to a large extent an independent figure,” he said.
Who is the pawn? America, Ukraine or both?
The Ukrainian war a terrible mess, a big problem for Putin and the Americans, but both would lose face if they don't seem to win.
When I said I want Ukraine to win, what does win mean?
Realistically I imagine the best result she can get is a ceasefire that hardens into a permanent de facto settlement, the territory she holds at present and all importantly Odessa and access to the Black Sea.
Perhaps she could liberate more territory but at what cost in blood and (American) treasure? If things go the way senior British officials expect according to Tom McTugh in Unherd she could lose Odessa and her coast.
If America operating via Ukraine did force the Russians back to the borders of January last year I wonder whether this would be a Pyrrhic victory. I very much doubt it will happen - Russia has a vastly bigger army than Ukraine - and would if it did would it take years?
In 2014 I hoped America would not get dragged into fighting a proxy war on Ukraine's behalf. Obama wisely did not do so. He was also careful not to give Ukraine lethal weapons.
Trump did, in order he said to provide jobs for American workers but also because the American media was full of the baseless theory that he was being blackmailed by the Kremlin.
Putin's bungled special military operation made a proxy war inevitable.
We now know that North Korea and North Vietnam were not Soviet pawns. Soviet Russia was manipulated by Kim and Ho into supporting their wars, wars which were as much nationalistic as Marxist. The Marxist-Leninists' biggest mistake, it is clear now, was to think the nation was false consciousness.
But is America a pawn of Zelensky or Ukraine a pawn of the war party in Washington DC or are America and Ukraine pawns of the neo-cons?
Obama said when Russia came to her ally the Syrian government's aid that this would be Russia's Vietnam. It wasn't but will Ukraine be another Vietnam for the Americans?
No, because American soldiers are not (as far as we are told) involved on the ground.
Like South Vietnam's, Ukraine's cause is just. That's a similarity.
A big difference is that Russia is not a Communist country theoretically intent on making the world Communist.
Why then is America involved? Because she now sees her role as protecting the world order everywhere. That hubris will lead to a fall.
The transformation of Europe is a far bigger story than the war in Ukraine, but little discussed
"The fact is that the people of Europe are losing their homelands, and therefore losing their place in the world. I don’t envisage the Tiber one day foaming with much blood, nor do I see it blushing as the voice of the muezzin sounds from the former cathedral of St. Peter. But the city through which the Tiber flows will one day cease to be Italian, and all the expectations of its former residents, whether political, social, cultural, or personal, will suffer a violent upheaval, with results every bit as interesting as those that Powell prophesied. " Sir Roger Scruton
“Bizarrely, as immigration began to change Europe at its economic and cultural core, the political vocabulary remained the same as when immigration had been a fringe phenomenon. People kept talking about restaurants.” Christopher Caldwell, Reflections on the Revolution in Europe: Immigration, Islam, and the West
Tuesday, 21 March 2023
The real story is not Russia but the ascent of China
Trump: 'The greatest threat to Western civilisation today is not Russia. It's probably more than anything else ourselves'
Donald Trump, in a three and a half minute video he posted on Thursday.
"Our foreign policy establishment keeps trying to pull the world into conflict with a nuclear-armed Russia based on the lie that Russia represents our greatest threat. But the greatest threat to Western civilization today is not Russia. It's probably more than anything else ourselves and some of the horrible, USA-hating people that represent us."
Saturday, 18 March 2023
How Wars Begin
I re-watched most of AJP Taylor's lectures on How Wars Begin recently and strongly recommend them. I am afraid I saw them when he first gave them in 1978, live without a timer or autocues, something that was absolutely antediluvian then. (I was very young.)
(By the way, US Ambassador Joseph Kennedy, retired bootlegger, antisemite and father of John and Robert, said during a game of golf in 1945 with James Forrestal that Neville Chamberlain told him that 'America and world Jews forced England into the war'. If Chamberlain were right that would mean Roosevelt's administration helped bring about the war on both sides of the globe, a remarkable thing for an isolationist government. Did the Americans push England into the war? How? )
Caragea, who placed Bucharest under quarantine 1813-14, during a plague that killed tens of thousands of people
Closing tabs
Yet another article I want to read about the decline and fall of Western civilisation, this time by African-American Professor Glenn Loury.
An article about the Columbian philosopher Nicolas Gómez Dávila which I really must read. He is a terribly good aphorist, up there with Malcolm Muggeridge.
James M. Patterson on Wokeness and the New Religious Establishment. It looked good. I realised that anti-discrimination can only be understood as a religion more than two years before I read it anywhere, just so you know.
A BBC documentary about Neo-Nazis in the Ukraine. I don't buy the attempt to use the Banderists as a justification for Russia's invasion, but I recommend watching it. I saw a lot of it.
Quotations
“Before Pope Francis, it was by no means clear that the Church was really prepared to take climate science seriously. It is now clear that you cannot be a Christian and at the same time deny that climate change is an issue.” Ottmar Edenhofer, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, talking to Time magazine this week.
Friday, 17 March 2023
Ill fares the land to hast'ning ills a prey
·
The UK will avoid a
recession this year, according to the OBR. It expects the economy to shrink by
0.2 per cent, not the 1.4 per cent it expected last November.
·
A major part of the upgrade
is due to higher net migration, expected to settle at 245,000 a year, up from
205,000 the OBR predicted in November.
·
Migration will add
160,000 workers to the economy and 0.5 per cent to GDP growth by 2027.
·
A package of welfare
reforms, including a childcare subsidy (for the under-twos) will add an
estimated 110,000 people to the workforce (Box 2.2).
Etymology of 'Having Kittens!'
Wednesday, 15 March 2023
Quotations
".....and if you ask what wrong he has done in his life, you could say that he has done practically none, except that he has not done anything! He has sinned by not sinning. He has not lived. If you live you are forced to sin: if you eat, then others cannot have that food. We shut our eyes to the fact that thousands of animals are butchered so that we may live. To live is to commit murder, and the more intensely I live the more I do wrong."Life is connected with guilt, and he, by not living, has not accumulated much active guilt, but he has accumulated a tremendous amount of passive guilt. Think of all the girls he has just walked out on. True, he
Tuesday, 14 March 2023
I can imagine Trump's views on Ukraine taking him back to the White House
Trump and DeSantis agree on calling for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine and in not wanting regime change in Russia. I completely agree.
What happened to former Finnish Interior Minister Dr Päivi Räsänen
I posted in 2020 about the former Finnish Minister of the Interior who was questioned by the police in 2020 about a booklet she wrote in 2004 summarising Lutheran teaching on sexual morality, including homosexual acts.
She has since been put on trail for hate speech and acquitted. The authorities have appealed the acquittal. She expects proceedings to continue for at least a year, perhaps a lot longer.
Other writers will, no doubt, take note of what happened to her.
Monday, 13 March 2023
Damian Thompson: 'Ten terrible years of Pope Francis. The church has lost all its moral authority.'
Sunday, 12 March 2023
The wisdom of cab drivers in Bucharest
'Putin’s Suez moment: he’s watching his Central Asian empire drift away'
The war is an accelerator. No epiphany for Putin, but defeat in Ukraine and decline elsewhere may help Russians begin reassessing their place in the world.
RELIVING THE NIGHTMARE OF 1914: I think David Goldman's essay from a year ago has held up well
At the start of March 2022 a famous conservative-leaning American newspaper asked David Goldman (Spengler in Asia Times) for an opinion piece on Ukraine.
"I wrote the short essay below—and it was refused, because it doesn't fit the homogenized view that saturates the US media. We're in a world crisis, and our political leaders and major news outlets are pointing us towards the cliff."
RELIVING THE NIGHTMARE OF 1914
World War I had no good guys and no winners. France rightly sought the return of the provinces Germany had annexed in 1870. Russia rightly feared that German influence would sever its industrial centers and tax base in the Western parts of it its empire; England feared that Germany would encroach on its overseas empire; Germany feared that Russia’s railroad system would overcome its advantage in mobility and firepower. None of them wanted a war, but each of them decided that it was better to fight in 1914 than fight later at a disadvantage.
An Irish friend wrote this about a visit to Wexford
However, contrasted with the Brightonesque, 'liberal Mecca' feel of the shops and hotels, every third doorway seemed to contain a Romanian beggar - comfortably seated with rug over their knees and cardboard sign placed in front of them, with 'I'm hungry' painted on it. But they certainly weren't lonely: groups of other Roma were standing casually conversing with them along the street, as if they were all engaged in some well-respected and venerable Wexford business that had been going on for generations. And indeed, I got the impression they were being made very welcome by the sort of people who now run the town.
Quotations
"We had become, with the approach of night, once more aware of loneliness and time — those two companions without whom no journey can yield us anything." Lawrence Durrell
“It is not enough to be busy; so are the ants.” Thoreau
Sir Alec Guinness reads an extract from the apocryphal Gospel of St Thomas.
Saturday, 11 March 2023
Death wish
I wonder how many people said someone should kill Donald Trump? The BBC's beloved Sir David Attenborough did, but so did many other famous people and so did over 12,000 tweets in the 12 days after his inauguration.
Friday, 10 March 2023
America is aggressively meddling in the affairs of other nations
'He who has ears to hear, let him hear!' (Matthew 11:15)
"There is no such Ukrainian who would not wish success to our friendly Georgia… We want to be in the European Union - and we will. We want Georgia to be in the European Union, and I am sure: it will be."It does look, even to the most innocent observer, reminiscent of the colour revolutions, intended to weaken and overthrow governments in the former USSR friendly to Moscow.
Last month Samantha Power an American diplomat went unofficially to Hungary to talk to opposition leaders and NGOs to 'strengthen democratic institutions and civil society'. Even Hungary which is in Nato is not exempt from US interference.
Thursday, 9 March 2023
Complete victory for Ukraine would be a Pyrrhic victory for America (but it is extremely unlikely to happen)
"It is ironic that even if the current team in Washington is successful, at a huge risk, in forcing Russia to withdraw to its pre-2014 borders, and even if Ukraine is subsequently admitted into NATO, America will be significantly less secure than it was before the Maidan coup, let alone before Putin’s intervention. The U.S. would then have to assume responsibility for supporting and defending a bankrupt state with arguably the most corrupt political establishment in Europe. The U.S. would become the ultimate guarantor, in perpetuity, of Ukraine’s borders, which were arbitrarily drawn by Lenin’s Bolsheviks in 1922 and expanded with a stroke of Nikita Khrushchev’s pen in 1954. Those borders would be certain to remain disputed by an embittered, revanchist Russia—just as Germany’s eastern borders were strenuously disputed after Versailles, and probably with similar long-term results.
"This would be a Pyrrhic victory for America and a permanent distraction from the only global challenge she faces, 5,000 miles southeast of Moscow."
I suppose he means China is the challenge, though Beijing is less than 5,000 miles away from Moscow, but I don't see why China is any threat to American interests either.
Remember Truman expected to take American troops out of Europe after the war and kept them there because Stalin foolishly took over Eastern Europe far too soon for his own good. He reminded the Anglo-Americans of Hitler whom they had defeated at the price of 70 million lives.
Remember too that Baldwin and Chamberlain wanted to avoid Great Britain getting dragged into defending the 1919 settlement in Eastern Europe, on the ground that no British interests were at stake.
Now everyone thinks 'the West' has interests every where. Especially neo-cons for whom it is always 1938.
Hitlers are cropping up all the time. Everyone takes new cold wars for granted and nobody fears a nuclear war.
Instead of new Baldwins we have Churchill wannabes, like Boris Johnson, Hilary Clinton and so many others.
Why in fact does Nato still exist, since the Soviet threat no longer does?
Because Nato is now about values, which in practice means Anglo-American hegemony throughout the Eurasian land-mass.
This inevitably invites a reaction.
Instead of trying to rerun a mythical past that never really happened that way and anyway was tragic, Nato governments should work for a ceasefire soon in Ukraine, which hardens into a settlement that lasts.
Tuesday, 7 March 2023
Quotations
“I like the structural path we’re on here. As long as we help Ukraine with the weapons they need and the economic support, they will fight to the last person.” US
George Orwell: “To see what is in front of one’s nose requires a constant struggle.”
Liberty—it is a thing which, be well assured, I would choose in preference to all my other possessions, multiplied many times.Maurice W. Mather and Joseph William Hewitt ad loc.:
εὖ γὰρ ἴστε ὅτι τὴν ἐλευθερίαν ἑλοίμην ἂν ἀντὶ ὧν ἔχω πάντων καὶ ἄλλων πολλαπλασίων.
According to the Persian notion, Cyrus himself was the slave of the king [his brother Artaxerxes II] ... who alone, of all the Persians, was free.
Dominic Cummings on the Ukrainian war
This is a tweet from Dominic Cummings, who was Boris Johnson's Svengali and the best thing about his premiership. He has a first class mind.