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“I like the structural path we’re on here. As long as we help Ukraine with the weapons they need and the economic support, they will fight to the last person.” US
George Orwell: “To see what is in front of one’s nose requires a constant struggle.”
The best argument against Brexit may just be that the British state is genuinely incapable of running the country's affairs and has largely given up trying.
Xenophon, Anabasis 1.7.3 (Cyrus to the Greek soldiers; tr. H.G. Dakyns):
Liberty—it is a thing which, be well assured, I would choose in preference to all my other possessions, multiplied many times.Maurice W. Mather and Joseph William Hewitt ad loc.:
εὖ γὰρ ἴστε ὅτι τὴν ἐλευθερίαν ἑλοίμην ἂν ἀντὶ ὧν ἔχω πάντων καὶ ἄλλων πολλαπλασίων.
According to the Persian notion, Cyrus himself was the slave of the king [his brother Artaxerxes II] ... who alone, of all the Persians, was free.
There are only two possible outcomes for Ukraine. Either most of Ukraine will remain under Kyiv’s control, or all of Ukraine will be reduced to rubble, its leadership overthrown, and the entire country will potentially face annexation. The first outcome relies on peace talks taking place before the Ukrainian military is outright defeated. Those peace talks would probably include Kyiv surrendering its eastern territory to Russia. The second outcome is virtually guaranteed if Ukraine is defeated before agreeing to a peace treaty that involves forfeiting territory it hasn’t had real control of since 2014 anyway. This is true even with a continued supply of Western military equipment.
ReplyDeleteReaders will note that excluded from these two options is the outcome that most hope for: Ukraine defeating the Russian military and regaining control of the entire country. Those in the West who promote this outcome are feeding Ukrainians with what we know to be “danger’s comforter.” The longer the West provides Ukraine with military aid, the longer Ukrainians will be deluded in the face of greater dangers than those they already face.
Lessons from the Melian Dialogue: A Case Against Providing Military Support for Ukraine
As the war in Ukraine rages on, and peace talks have yet to commence, it’s long past time we ask ourselves if helping Kyiv regain control of eastern Ukraine is worth the risks, and if there isn’t another way forward.
by Michael Guy
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/lessons-melian-dialogue-case-against-providing-military-support-ukraine-206264
This seems very likely to me - with the caveat that we cannot be sure - but the idea that the Ukraine can recapture the Crimea is absurd.
Delete"Readers will note that excluded from these two options is the outcome that most hope for: Ukraine defeating the Russian military and regaining control of the entire country. Those in the West who promote this outcome are feeding Ukrainians with what we know to be “danger’s comforter.” The longer the West provides Ukraine with military aid, the longer Ukrainians will be deluded in the face of greater dangers than those they already face." People who care about Ukraine want a ceasefire now that might freeze the conflict - the outcome Robert Kaplan says would be only a temporary respite. So many Russian conflicts hardened into Russian exclaves. This one could.
DeleteThe likelihood of a Russian victory over Ukraine will have devastating knock-on effects for both the dying postwar European order and American power globally. Should the Russians destroy the Ukrainian government, it will be yet another decisive defeat of U.S. global power. (America’s defeat began in earnest with the disastrous U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021.)
ReplyDeleteIn Ukraine, the impact of NATO’s defeat will destroy the postwar American order in Europe and break NATO’s back. Humiliated and dejected, the different members of NATO — notably Germany and France — will seek new accommodations with Russia, allowing the alliance to fray.
The Russians, meanwhile, will find themselves on the border with Poland in Ukraine, chomping at the bit to go for more. With NATO having wasted so many essential weapons systems in Ukraine with few spares available, Russia just might try its luck going after one of the smaller former Soviet states, such as Estonia, whose survivability will be in question with the collapse of NATO. Or Moscow might just consolidate their victory over Ukraine and watch as NATO implodes — which, of course, it will.
We are at the start of a protracted global struggle for dominance between the United States, Russia and China, and their allies globally. These are the tragic birth pangs of a new world order that is post-American, multipolar, and radically competitive.
More dangerously, these events might not just herald a prolonged geopolitical crisis for America. It might be the opening phases of a world war — a conflict in which the United States is outnumbered, outmanned and outgunned by fiery Eurasian autocracies seeking to curb what they believe to be a radical, imperialist American power run amok.
No one in Washington is prepared for this reality.
Risk of uncontrolled escalation inches nearer in Ukraine war
By Brandon J. Weichert
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/feb/6/risk-of-uncontrolled-escalation-inches-nearer-in-u/
Look no further than the fiasco in Ukraine, engineered by geniuses of the US foreign service in some daft exercise to show the world who’s who and what for. And, remind me: what was the basic idea there? To hamstring and hogtie Russia so badly that her people would overthrow the only rational head-of-state in Christendom, a figure who makes the presidents, chancellors, and prime ministers of Western Civ look like a troop of gibbering mandrills, with painted faces and blue butts, the ass-clowns of geopolitics.
ReplyDeleteAllegorical Intermezzo
James Howard Kunstler
No, I don't see much to admire about Putin - apart from his common sense views about 'gender' and his intervention in Syria, which at least brought peace to most of Syria and protected Christians.
DeleteNot even by comparison?
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