Israel is in zugswang. American Evangelical Protestants would support genocide but Jewish liberal voters in the US and Israel will prevent it.

This is a very interesting and persuasive lecture by John Mearsheimer, who argues that Israel is the big loser in Gaza. 

He is right that Israel cannot defeat Hamas, at least without driving the Arabs out of Gaza and, I'd add, out of the West Bank too.

This is my objection to what Israel is doing. It is not possible for the Israelis to defeat Hamas except by genocide. 

Hamas will continue to rule Gaza unless the Israelis try to do so or unless there is a two state solution, something which seems impossible.

Professor Mearsheimer:

'First of all, they have not defeated Hamas, and they’re not going to defeat Hamas. Kurt Campbell, who is the deputy secretary of state, basically said that yesterday. There are all sorts of stories in the Israeli press that they’re not going to defeat Hamas. They haven’t gotten the hostages back, and they have not been able to cleanse Gaza. Furthermore, they’re stuck in Gaza. They’re there—they got out in 2005, and they’re back there. This is not good. So, what you see here is that Israel is in real trouble in Gaza.'

Meanwhile, from Northern Israel between 60,000 and 100,000 Israelis have fled south to avoid being shelled by Hezbollah. 

The Iron Dome has proved not to be very useful as a deterrent.  

Nor has Israel's bomb against non-state actors. 

The Arab countries are no longer the threat to Israel, though Iran could become one, so the bomb does not deter. 

Iran has got away with sending missiles into Israel.

We do not know what Israel's exit strategy is or what Netanyahu's plan is, but I doubt if he has one, beyond continuing the war in order to remain in power and out of prison. 

I said this to an Israeli-Romanian at a party recently who replied, 'I don't want him to go to prison. I want him shot.' 

Just as all nice Romanians are monarchists so all nice Israelis loathe Netanyahu. 

October 7 gave them a slew of new, very strong reasons. 

October 7 was the culmination of his policy of building up Hamas and he is responsible for the utter failure of the army to forestall the attack.

Professor Mearsheimer thinks the Israeli cabinet wants to clear the Gaza Strip of Arabs, but I do not see that it is possible because (wisely) no other county will take them. [Since I wrote this, Canada has said she will take some.]

I don't believe Israeli or world opinion would tolerate the IDF killing all the Arabs in the Gaza strip. John Mearsheimer says he thinks so too 'but I am not entirely sure'. 

I think even Biden would not permit that. American evangelical Protestants would not object but liberal Jewish Democrat voters would do so and would prevent it. 

But this is why the young are protesting and are accused of antisemitism for their pains.

Professor Mearsheimer admits

If anybody asks me in the Q&A period what would I do to fix this problem, I can tell you the answer now—I have no idea.

Nor have I. 

Every move Israel can take is bad. 

Zugswang, it's called in chess. 

History teaches us that history teaches us nothing about what will happen. This tedious story that began with Jewish terrorists in the 1940s or Arab terrorists in the 1920s only became interesting to me on October 7 last year, but it will continue on and on and on.

I commend the words of Walter Lippmann, quoted (defensively) at the end of the question and answer session by Tom Switzer, who organised the talk. 

“When we all think alike, no one thinks very much.” 

That is the problem in the mainstream British and American media (but not in the Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz to which I subscribe).

(Pedantic footnote. It irks that people who sympathise with the Arabs, who are Semites, are accused of antisemitism. That battle alas is lost. It irks me even more when people accuse Israel of being an apartheid state because Arabs in the occupied territories do not have the vote. That ain't what apartheid means. Before apartheid South African black people did not have the vote, except if they owned property in Cape Province. Apartheid meant not letting people of different races mix, get married, etc. Nothing like that applies in Israel or the occupied territories. By not letting Arabs vote in the occupied territories Israel does, however, resemble Rhodesia, but Israel's differences from Rhodesia are vast. White Rhodesians were Christians and paternalists who thought, rightly, that they were governing in the best interests of black people. In the end they gave up power when they saw that they could not defeat their rebels.)