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One day, one of my colleagues from a fraternal country told me: “Well, I’m a stranger to you, you won’t accept me.” I answered what I had to: “We will judge not by biography, but by actions.” Then he lost the war, but strangely stayed in place. Then he decided to blame Russia for his mediocre defeat. Then he gave up part of the territory of his country. Then he decided to flirt with NATO, and his wife defiantly went to our enemies with cookies.
Guess what fate awaits him...
I do not buy the idea that Russian weakness meant she could not defend an ally - he was not much of an ally.
But did Russia want the fall of Nagorno Karabakh? Who can know? Did Pashinya? - some say so but it's absurd. My reader Toma sent me this very interesting article.
My impression is that Armenia is doomed by its geography. A Christian nation, it is squeezed between two Turkic and Islamic countries with mutually intelligible languages and very good cultural and military ties. To the south, another Islamic country with a large Azeri minority. Iran has no interest to support Armenia and antagonize its northern and western neighbours. Turkey is out of the question: It would impose too humiliating conditions regarding the recognition of the massacres of Armenians as genocide. This leaves only Russia or the US as possible options. Russia is indeed too weak now (even if they try to mask it under their rhetoric). The US are possibly too weak, but there are also other aspects: Armenia is too poor and nothing to offer as an ally. And finally the geography: too remote, landlocked, too small, too inaccessible. Over which airspace would the US ship military equipment? Turkey's? It would refuse. Georgia's? Not in America's sphere of influence.
ReplyDeleteAzerbaijan, on the other hand, has oil or gas, which allowed it to build up its military and gave it political stability that in turn allows for the pursuit of long-term political and military goals.
One American journalist I read hates Armenia because she has (of necessity) friendly relations with Iran. Israel for this reason considers her an enemy and helped the Azeris take Nagorno Karabakh.
ReplyDeleteThe Armenian government is close to Western NGOs - indeed it is partly made up of people who used to work for Western NGOs, the pro Russian political parties in Armenia lost power some years ago. As for blaming Jews for the fall of Nagorno Karabakh - that is not true.
ReplyDeleteI don't blame the Jews or even Israel though Israel sold Azernbaijan weapons - they would have been supplied by other people had Israel not done so. Armenia is reasonably popular in DC and has influential Jewish supporters, but for some neo-cons a friend of Iran is an enemy of theirs and of America. Iranian government is not in my opinion much of a danger to anyone but Iranians, but that is another story.
Deletehttps://www.calcalistech.com/ctechnews/article/rjhofzoet
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