Sunday 12 April 2020

Coronavirus statistics for England and Wales can be misleading

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The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 27 March 2020 (Week 13) was 11,141; an increase of 496 deaths registered compared with the previous week (Week 12) and 1,011 more than the five-year average. I wonder how it compares to 2 years ago when 40,000 excess deaths from respiratory diseases were recorded, i.e. 58,000 instead of the usual 18,000. 

Of the deaths registered in Week 13 in England and Wales, 539 mentioned "novel coronavirus (COVID-19)", which is 4.8% of all deaths; which compared with 103 (1.0% of all deaths) in Week 12. This means deaths where the dead person tested positive for COVID 19,not that it is what killed him. The figures for week 14 are not ready yet. 

The graph below is based on ONS data for England and Wales up to March 27 (Week 13), but the figures for the last week are provisional. Of course, the death rate for the week ending March 27 is lower than it would have been had it not been for the lockdown. In Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland deaths were not above average in Week 13 or Week 14. N.B. two years ago 58,000 died from respiratory illnesses in England and Wales, instead of the usual 17,000 or 18,000.

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