The US claims it has absolutely cut off all Iranian exports/imports.
This is false.
Others claim the blockade is essentially non-existent citing social media claims and wishful thinking.
This is also false.
It is somewhere in between.
The US is turning back nearly as many ships as are being reported to have bypassed it.
This means the US has stopped anywhere between 40%-60% of Iranian imports/exports.
That isn't "nothing."
I particularly hear MANY analysts citing pictures on social media of meager meals US sailors are reportedly being served on US warships as evidence of deep systemic logistical failures.
I was a US Marine over 20 years ago - long before this war started. I was occasionally on ships. And each time I ate meager meals much worse than pictured.
On one occasion I was on a 3 day transit and 100s of us ate stale bread, slimy cold cuts, and rotten lettuce morning, noon, and evening until on the last day we only ate once.
Logistics are never perfect even in peacetime. Meager meals don't make operations impossible - just miserable. And that is it.
A few pictures on social media indicate gaps in logistics. Much more widespread evidence would exist if a logistical collapse was actually taking place.
Collapsing logistics manifests in operational failure.
Cutting half of a targeted nation's maritime traffic isn't failure.
Who Will Blink First, Iran or the US?
Those banking on Iran's restrictions across the Strait of Hormuz and the economic damage it is doing to US proxies forcing the US to back off first are making the wrong bet.
The US doesn't care about its proxies - and in fact - the worse things are for its proxies the easier it is for the US to exercise control over them.
Currently the US is in the process of specifically exploiting this economic crisis - assuming energy dominance over many of the nations impacted by restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz - much in the same way it did over Europe by destroying Nord Stream and sanctioning Russian energy.
The premeditated nature of this strategy - including years of preparing Asia-specific LNG export capabilities that otherwise make no economic sense - mirrors similar preparations to export LNG to Europe BEFORE Nord Stream was destroyed and the US provoked war with Russia in Ukraine.
Such conditions also make it possible for the US to impose additional control over yet-to-be proxies - nations like Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, and others who have so far been managing a relatively neutral position geopolitically.
By facing reality and calling out the deliberate controlled demolition of the global economy by the US - more pressure can be placed on the US to stop - but also pressure placed on governments targeted by the US to exploit this crisis to resist US coercion.
If we pretend Iran is "defeating" the US - we'll end in an even darker nightmare than those who thought Trump was going to prevent this growing global war in the first place.
We can make the future brighter - but we have to acknowledge reality first in order to do so.
What Could We Do?
1. Expose what the US is doing and why.
2. Condemn it.
3. Wake up populations in nations around the globe against the danger of falling into energy dependence on the US - citing Europe as a prime example.
4. Invest in multipolarism - both as a general policy and trend - but also in any way we can personally.
5. Research and promote alternative energy - encourage people to follow China's energy policy and even cooperate with China to ensure energy independence vis-a-vis Washington and Wall Street's wrecking ball foreign policy.
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