A Political Refugee From The Global Village
An Englishman in love with Bucharest's blowsy charms
Saturday, 21 May 2022
Bucharest morning
Things I read
'Yes, Russia is winning in the east which is what they said their objective was all along. And they are accomplishing that. That is the special Military Operation. But now we’re talking about “war”, and I don’t think Russia has made that transition yet. This is a defacto proxy war between the west and Russia using Ukrainian forces as NATO’s sword. The object of this is to “bleed Russia dry”. And if Russia doesn’t change the dynamic, Russia will be bled dry.” Zelensky has indicated that he’s willing to mobilize a million people, at a time when the west is ready to provide the funding and equipment to turn those million men into a real military threat.
'So, I see what has been happening in the last few weeks as being decisive.
'The military aid the west is providing is changing the dynamic and if Russia doesn’t find a way to address this meaningfully, and to eliminate it as a military capability… then the conflict will never end.'
Social scientists have identified at least three fundamental forces that collectively bind together successful democracies: social capital (extensive social networks with high levels of trust), strong institutions and shared stories. Social media has weakened all three. To see how, we must understand how social media changed over time, and especially in the years following 2009.Jonathan Haidt in yesterday's Times.
'Instead of changing as usual at Charing Cross, I came straight on to Rio de Janeiro.'
"Inflation is a regressive tax that most hurts the least affluent."
"I have read somewhere or other, in Dionysius of Halicarnassus, I think, that history is philosophy teaching by examples."
Paul Gottfried said that, unlike England, with its essentially mediaeval social structure, America was made by Protestant sectarians who neither had nor desired a mediaeval past and whose descendants have turned into celebrants of progress, commerce and human rights. I don't want England or Europe to lose touch with their medieval past.
Thursday, 19 May 2022
The Church of the Holy Apostles Peter and Paul
The church is not far from the bottom of Calea Victoriei, south of the river. I took the picture around 7 tonight in the lovely evening light. Late 17th century and spared demolition in the 1980s. The beautiful mural and roof painting are from the 1920s.
Quotations
Seen somewhere on Facebook out of the corner of my eye, four years ago. "Dan Hannan is a self-confessed liberal. I asked him the direct question - can the Anglosphere exist without Anglos in it? In perfect LIBERAL form, he replied that (paraphrasing) the Anglosphere was a concept; a set of values. He declared that the centre of the Anglosphere was India. He took great exception to my question - he was not happy."
and giving heed to her laws is assurance of immortality.
19
Erratum
George W. Bush, speaking in Dallas yesterday, described the invasion of Iraq as "brutal" and "unjustified" before correcting himself to say he meant to refer to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
What a void she will leave when we lose her
How lucky England is not to be a republic.
Taxi driver
Is my maths at fault?
My political analysis isn't far off.
Wednesday, 18 May 2022
More joy in heaven
“We didn’t understand that it’s a fairly low fatality rate and that it’s a disease mainly in the elderly, kind of like flu is, although a bit different than that.”
James Delingpole asked in February:
"So what are we supposed to do, those of us who really have been fighting the Covid tyranny these last two years: we few, we happy few, who risked arrest on the early marches, who refused to wear face nappies, who stuck up for Hydroxychloroquine and Ivermectin, who called out the dodgy PCR tests and the dangerous experimental mRNA therapy they ludicrously call ‘vaccines’, who recognised that the pandemic was a scam cooked up by Bill Gates, Anthony Fauci and the WHO to enrich Big Pharma, cull the populace and hasten the advent of Klaus ‘Anal’ Schwab’s The Great Reset?"Do we welcome all these slippery turncoats to our bosom like the Prodigal Son? Or do we let them rot in hell?"
Tuesday, 17 May 2022
Putin is micromanaging his war
"We think Putin and Gerasimov are involved in tactical decision making at a level we would normally expect to be taken by a colonel or a brigadier,” the military source told the Guardian, referring to the war in the east of Ukraine. This augurs badly for Russia. Napoleon micromanaged but was a general of genius. Hitler probably lost the war because he delayed the attack on Moscow, against the advice of his generals.
Quotations
"It is the achievement of Christianity to have raised the condition of women in all times and in all places." Mr Gladstone. I once quoted this to a young priest at Brentwood Cathedral and asked if he thought this process could go too far. "It can go much too far."
"Do not murder a child by abortion or kill a new-born infant". The early Christian work the Didache (c. 150 AD). Both abortion and infanticide (including exposing new born babies on mountain tops) were normal with pagan Romans, as were crucifixions and gladiatorial contests.
"The advantage of being intelligent, is that we can always play stupid, however being the opposite is completely impossible." Woody Allen.
Early morning thoughts about the Ukraine
'This was not Putin’s plan; indeed it wasn't even his backup plan. Once the attempts to take Kyiv failed, he wanted to continue assaults against Kharkiv while simultaneously attacking the Donbas. These two efforts were going to be the consolation prize. Yet he has now failed in the former and is behind schedule in the latter. And even if he continues to make steady progress in the Donbas, he will soon need reinforcements, and it is not clear where he will find them in sufficient time.
'Ukraine now has the opportunity to redeploy troops from the north of the country to fight in the east. Putin knows this and, it seems, has instructed Belarus president Aleksandr Lukashenko to deploy his own forces close to the border with Ukraine under the guise of military exercises. This directly threatens Kyiv and will have the effect of fixing Ukrainian troops in place for the time being. It is another sign that Russia is increasingly concerned about the balance of forces in Donbas.'
The clever people who thought the mainstream media had it wrong and Russian invasion is going to plan were mistaken, but if Russia decides to be much more brutal she may still defeat Ukraine or rather the Anglo-Americans and Ukraine. We don't know.
Patrick Cockburn, in the interview to which I linked, points out some of the contradictions in the received wisdom. Putin has gone mad but nevertheless won't use nuclear weapons, for example.
I wonder what would have happened had Biden and Boris sent a couple of battalions to Kiev before the invasion.
Had Putin not invaded in 2014 a pro-Russian Ukrainian government might have given him the things he wants.
A Cambridge don supposedly met Napoleon and said it was clear that he hadn't gone to Cambridge. Putin, who also didn't go to Cambridge, is certainly no Napoleon, for which we should, I suppose, be thankful.
Monday, 16 May 2022
Sunday morning

Vaccines don't stop spread of Covid
Patrick Cockburn
I largely agree with him
"I just want to see the universities closed down, except for Oxford and Cambridge. I think they have all been a terrible mistake." Philip Larkin
Sunday, 15 May 2022
Col Richard Kemp: Russia will capture eastern Ukraine and the whole of the Ukrainian coast
Colonel Kemp thinks the British media mostly simply repeats Ukrainian propaganda and the Russians will probably take eastern Ukraine and the whole of the coast. Then France and Germany will force Ukraine to cut a deal.
"Oh let us never never doubt
What nobody is sure about."
The colonel hopes Putin will be removed and hopes 'we' are trying to ensure this happens. Have we learnt nothing from the last 22 years?
He is right when he says 'The US is Nato'.
He dislikes the Iran deal, worries about Iran getting the bomb, and thinks Iran in Syria is a danger to Israel. This makes me doubt his judgment.
I bet he'd like to overthrow the Syrian government too. I don't see that the West should care about Syria, which is a Russian satellite for more than 59 years and an ally of Iran. The Saudis are worse than Iran.
Madness reigns
Nietzsche
Saturday, 14 May 2022
Professor Robert Tombs yesterday
"Britain’s newly active role is confirming the view of the Cambridge international relations specialist Professor Brendan Simms that Britain is Europe’s only genuine great power and one of the principal guarantors of its security – a view that not long ago seemed distinctly eccentric. Are we finally casting off the declinism that has handicapped Britain’s international role for half a century, and reduced it from being a leader to an acquiescent follower?
"To move boldly into the Baltic would have astonished Palmerston or Gladstone – no shrinking violets. The Navy did tentatively confront Russia in the Baltic during the Crimean War in 1854, and London was prepared to send a fleet to protect Copenhagen in 1864 in the unlikely event of the Germans attacking it. We gave an empty guarantee to Poland in 1939. But never have we ventured so far east in offering security as now."
I am sure we are right to aid Ukraine, as we went to the rescue of Kuwait in 1991, but this is a special case. I do not think British interests are in general involved in Europe. I do not think Russia is a threat to the United Kingdom or for that matter to the countries in the European Union. I'd prefer us to follow the foreign policy of Lord Salisbury, splendid isolation, rather than the policy which took us to war with Russia over the Crimea.
Wisdom
Book of Wisdom, 7:24-25, 29-30:
For wisdom is more moving than any motion: she passeth and goeth through all things by reason of her pureness.
For she is the breath of the power of God, and a pure influence flowing from the glory of the Almighty: therefore can no defiled thing fall into her.
For she is more beautiful than the sun, and above all the order of stars: being compared with the light, she is found before it.
For after this cometh night: but vice shall not prevail against wisdom.
Friday, 13 May 2022
Russia only understands force
That cartoon is from today's Times.
Nobody over dinner on Wednesday thought Biden was to blame for diplomatic ineptitude that led Russia to invade the Ukraine. Very different from a dinner I had a month ago when almost everybody, including two Anglo-Saxons who worked in Ukraine for years, was furious with him.
One of the two or three cleverest men I know said on Wednesday that Russia only understands force. I am sure this is right. It cuts both ways. Putin understood the colour revolutions, from Kiev 2004 onwards, as American force, which to some unknown extent they were.
Thursday, 12 May 2022
Sweet, very warm evening, Calea Șerban Vodă.
Illegal immigrants
The Russian soldiery are illegal immigrants in the Ukraine.
Quotations
1. The kind Douglas Murray rightly rails against - hating your own culture and history
2. The conservative’s loathing of what the West has become that leads to thinking that if this is bad then Putin is good
Both are wrong. 2 is wrong because, in spite of the decadence of western culture there is still sufficient good residual in the ethos. The good still lingers in the consciousness. I think 2 is often embraced in order to achieve a kind of cognitive harmony. It’s a kind of over-simplifying moral maths.
Guy Walker
Kevin Sorbo
Taiwan wants to buy Abrams tanks and howitzers, which are of no use whatever in defense against a prospective mainland invasion, and is balking at US attempts to sell it "porcupine" weapons. As every pundit in the world has written, Taiwan is watching Ukraine closely and drawing lessons. But the lesson it appears to draw is that you won't have much of a country left after fighting a proxy war for the US.
David Goldman yesterday
'Still, so much more could be sent, and that is the priority of the growing Ukraine-victory lobby that stretches from the US to Finland, with notable outposts in Germany’s once-pacifist Green Party and in Downing Street. This loose but influential lobby holds that victory for Ukraine is a victory for Nato and the West, so defeat for Ukraine must mean their defeat as well. It follows that enough military support must reach Ukraine to allow it to expel Russia’s forces, including in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
'For this lobby, the greatest short-term threat is a ceasefire or, even worse, an armistice with Russian forces still in control of Ukrainian territory, providing a dangerous bargaining chip for Moscow. It sees a perilous contradiction between what satisfactory short and medium-term results look like for Ukraine, and what many Western leaders might accept to stop the violence, including allowing Russia to hold on to the territory it gained. It sees Ukraine losing the war unless it receives much more Western support, including heavy weapons with the requisite training. And it sees Nato’s role as ensuring Ukraine drives out all Russian troops, with the hope that Putin himself will be driven out of office.
'Unlike the victory lobby, I see the makings of a solidly satisfactory outcome in the present situation, so long as enough aid reaches Ukraine to keep up its strength — and that means reading the riot act to double-dealing Chancellor Olaf Scholz — while vigorously proposing a peace plan. After all, the two sides have already reached agreement on the broadest issues: Zelenskyy has already stated that Ukraine will not join Nato and the Russian side has already accepted Ukraine’s entry into the European Union.'
Edward Luttwak on 26 April
"Judge me in a year" said Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s State Epidemiologist, in July 2020, when his country was being attacked for sticking to its pandemic plan rather than adopting the novel intervention of lockdown. The latest World Health Organisation figures add to the evidence that has been accumulating since summer 2021. Sweden managed the pandemic more successfully than most, with much less disruption of everyday life and economic activity.
Daily Telegraph
Goethe. Putin might think or might have thought this.
“Do what terrifies you. Everything else is boring.”
Anonymous
Tuesday, 10 May 2022
Old St George's
I lived 200 yards from the well known St George's New Church since the turn of the century but only recently discovered the nearby and well hidden Old Church, which predictably is newer than the New Church.
Henry Kissinger at the weekend
Quotations from Henry Kissinger in an interview in yesterday's FT.
In principle, the [Sino-Russian] alliance is against vested interests, it’s now established. But it does not look to me as if it is an intrinsically permanent relationship. FT: I take it that it would be in America’s geopolitical interest to encourage more distance between Russia and China. Is this wrong? HK: The geopolitical situation globally will undergo significant changes after the Ukraine war is over. And it is not natural for China and Russia to have identical interests on all foreseeable problems. I don’t think we can generate possible disagreements but I think circumstances will. After the Ukraine war, Russia will have to reassess its relationship to Europe at a minimum and its general attitude towards Nato. I think it is unwise to take an adversarial position to two adversaries in a way that drives them together, and once we take aboard this principle in our relationships with Europe and in our internal discussions, I think history will provide opportunities in which we can apply the differential approach. That doesn’t mean that either of them will become intimate friends of the west, it only means that on specific issues as they arise we leave open the option of having a different approach. In the period ahead of us, we should not lump Russia and China together as an integral element....I have met Putin as a student of international affairs about once a year for a period of maybe 15 years for purely academic strategic discussions. I thought his basic convictions were a kind of mystic faith in Russian history . . . and that he felt offended, in that sense, not by anything we did particularly at first, but by this huge gap that opened up with Europe and the east. He was offended and threatened because Russia was threatened by the absorption of this whole area into Nato. This does not excuse and I would not have predicted an attack of the magnitude of taking over a recognised country. I think he miscalculated the situation he faced internationally and he obviously miscalculated Russia’s capabilities to sustain such a major enterprise — and when the time for settlement comes all need to take that into consideration, that we are not going back to the previous relationship but to a position for Russia that will be different because of this — and not because we demand it but because they produced it.
...I would suspect that any Chinese leader now would be reflecting on how to avoid getting into the situation in which Putin got himself into, and how to be in a position where in any crisis that might arise, they would not have a major part of the world turned against them.
Ruskin said he was a Tory of the old school, the school of Homer and Sir Walter Scott, but I think Scott overrated
I'm not a conservative in the Thatcher Reagan sense, though I have come to see their good points, and very much am not an admirer of George W Bush. I'm a conservative after the school of Homer, Shakespeare and Dr Johnson. I side with the Tories against the American rebels in 1776 and detest Lincoln for fighting an unjust and unnecessary war. Two modern politicians I like are Lord Salisbury and Charles de Gaulle. Enoch Powell was prescient about everything which is one reason I'd like England to leave the E.U.
I didn't actually think we WOULD leave the European Union though. Tom Gallagher told me it wouldn't happen. "Don't we have any chance?" "Well, there's always a chance."
I posted these in 2011. I remember doing so but it seems like last week.
Women kept the Tories in power every time they won an election and I was astonished to discover that suddenly women have swing leftwards and prefer Labour. This has huge implications for social history - plus women now prefer to be given telephones rather than jewellery - what does it all mean?
I realised only now that Romania's intense religiosity is not an Orthodox or Balkan thing. Serbia, Bulgaria and Russia are much less religious. About Greece I don't know. Quite unconsciously it is one of the reasons why Romania is so much more more attractive a country than her neighbours.
Europeans are like elephants
'To me women are like elephants. I love elephants very much, but I don't want to have one.'
I am quoting some Frenchman.
The net says attributes the same thought to W. C. Fields
'Women are like elephants. I like to look at 'em, but I wouldn't want to own one.'
To me Europeans are like elephants too. I love them very much but don't want to be one.
Sunday, 8 May 2022
More thoughts on my last post, on Charles Moore and 3 former ambassadors
Lord Moore wants regime change in Moscow and so he hints does Sir Andrew Wood. So do I, but we should discard that idea and hope for a negotiated peace, but there will not be one until Russia makes big gains, which might happen soon or might not.
Regime change must wait until the Russians bring it about, or the old man dies.
I have said for years in this blog that Putin is not a real threat to the UK or to the European Union countries, but he is now in a proxy war with America and the UK with the backing of the European Union.
Does this make him a real threat to Europe, beyond Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova?
I don't think so. Of course, he will not attack a NATO country - why on earth would he? - but I was wrong when I said he would not invade Ukraine.
It certainly makes me hope for a durable peace as soon as possible, something Lord Moore does not want.
The big threats to the UK are not from Russia - while involving ourselves in Ukraine we have failed to get rid of the Northern Ireland protocol and now Sinn Fein are the largest party in Northern Ireland.
We should stop thinking of the USA and European Union as having the same interests as the UK.
Saturday, 7 May 2022
Three British former ambassadors take very different views of the war in Ukraine.
Here Sir Andrew Wood former ambassador to Moscow, two days ago, Peter Ford formerly our man in Damascus here on 26 February, when he and everyone expected Putin to seize Kiev quickly, and Craig Murray, formerly our man in Tashkent here.
Here is Charles Moore today and he is right.
"Hitler took 35 days to conquer Poland. It has already taken Vladimir Putin more than twice as long not to conquer Ukraine. Actually, he has done worse: he started trying eight years ago when he annexed Crimea, and still hasn’t managed it. Even Putin’s Belarus puppet, Alexander Lukashenko, publicly noticed this week that the war has “dragged on”. Monday’s annual Victory Parade in Red Square will be a strange occasion. The 1945 victory commemorated contrasts uncomfortably with semi-defeat in 2022.
Waiter, waiter, perculator!
Saturday morning strolling in the sweet May sunshine
This is the part of Bucharest that narrowly escaped destruction in the redevelopment inspired by Pyongyang.
Don't forget that Ceaușescu's planners destroyed less of Bucharest than planners destroyed ,London and other English cities in the twenty years before Mrs Thatcher.
Quotations
"Wouldn't it be terrible if you'd spent all your life doing everything you were supposed to do, didn't drink, didn't smoke, didn't eat things, took lots of exercise, all the things you didn't want to do, and suddenly one day you were run over by a big red bus, and as the wheels were crunching into you you'd say 'Oh my God, I could have got so drunk last night!' That's the way you should live your life, as if tomorrow you'll be run over by a big red bus."
Queen Elizabeth, The Queen Mother
This issue must be fought out in the political arena, not preempted by be-robed dictators. Stop the activist justices.
“If they don’t do it soon, there will be nothing left but death, destruction, and carnage. This is a war that never should have happened, but it did. The solution can never be as good as it would have been before the shooting started, but there is a solution, and it should be figured out now—not later—when everyone will be DEAD!”
Donald Trump
[He is right but Russia needs at this stage a victory at least in Donbass so will not negotiate in good faith. Does the American defence establishment prefer endless war to a negotiated peace? I think so.]
'Whitehall was horrified by Brexit’: an interview with Australia’s departing high commissioner
'I think the idea of the West is a kind of 20th-century notion. The idea of the “democratic world” is a much better way of capturing the fact that liberal democracies exist in the Indo-Pacific as well as in the Euro-Atlantic....
'Your institutions are extremely resilient; I’ve never seen institutions in a peaceful country tested like they were in 2018 and 2019 [over Brexit]. What I think is really important is that the narrative of decline has now been arrested. You broke that.
‘Britain has all the opportunities. What it has lacked, because of 45 years of being cocooned within the EU, is the enterprising globalising culture to seize those opportunities beyond the Euro--Atlantic and to go into the Indo-Pacific.
‘I know Boris gets flayed sometimes for corny patriotism. But what I think he has done for the British people – particularly for working-class people – is to show them a leader who actually gets the concept of the possibility of British greatness. To change an inherited multi-generational, establishment-reinforced Whitehall-sanctioned culture takes a lot of doing. But that is what Britain is capable of and I think Johnson, for all his faults, has been able to at least kindle that.’
I remember the British press shamefully printed articles that worried that a trade deal would not protect British farmers, rather than hoping it would reduce food prices. So corrupting has our membership of the EEC/EC/EU been.
It is slightly worrying, much as I support Ukraine in this terrible war, that the upper echelon of the British civil service which is now very woke and hates Brexit loves the proxy war with Russia. It is part of a global elite that includes their counterparts in the USA, who struggled to undermine and get rid of Donald Trump, and in Italy that got rid of Salvini.