Saturday, 2 November 2019

Nigel Farage is being irrational

I saw why some Brexiteers will vote for Nigel Farage's Brexit Party, when I read in The Times that Boris Johnson is not going to mention the possibility of a no-deal Brexit in the Conservative manifesto. 

This is probably good tactics, but the threat of leaving with no deal has to remain. 

Much more alarmingly, Secretary of State for Culture Nicky Morgan said to the Times, in an interview published today: 

“If you vote Conservative at this election, you’re voting to leave with this deal, and no-deal has been effectively been taken off the table.”
She is not standing again and when she was a backbencher (Mrs May didn't give her  a job) she repeatedly rebelled to stop a no-deal Brexit and warned of its damaging economic impact. She therefore, I hope, does not have authority for saying no-deal is off the table.

Words like hers are anathema to a lot of people, including me. 

Nevertheless, I am sure that people who want to leave the EU should vote Tory and hope the Tories will negotiate a good deal - using leaving with no deal as a threat.

Brexit was little mentioned in the 2017 election. All parties backed it, because they respected the referendum result. Labour did so, though Mr Corbyn somehow contrived to give both Leavers up north and Remainers down south the impression that he was on their side. 

But the authority of the result is weakened with every day that goes by. If the Tories do not have an absolute majority in this election it will be seen, unfairly, as  a vote against Brexit.

Before Nigel Farage announced yesterday morning that he would stand candidates in every constituency in Great Britain, Thursday's YouGov poll showed: Conservatives 36%, Labour 21%, Lib. Dem. 18%, Brexit party 13%. 

Anthony Wells, YouGov’s director of political research, said that it was impossible to tell how many constituencies votes for the Brexit Party would cost the Tories. 
“We shouldn’t forget that it is the Remain vote that is really split.”
Leavers should not be reassured by that. 

The split Remain vote is the biggest danger for the Tories and for Brexit. If people for whom remaining in the UK is the most important issue vote tactically, as they will do, it is possible that they will deny the Tories a majority and thereby make a second referendum inevitable.

Mr. Farage and his party have no chance of winning a seat. All sane Leavers will back Boris's deal, but the Tories will lose seats because of the insane ones.

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