Eric Kraus, who headed several Russian investment banks, this morning

He and the 'dissident' podcasters like John Mearsheimer and Pelle Taylor seem to have been right. MI6, the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and State Department et al all the defence establishment supporters in Chatham House and King's College London have been wrong.

For the past couple of years, like some Casandra with a toothache, I have haunted these pages, warning that:
1. At least since Russia regrouped and settled in for a long war of attrition, the defeat of the Former Ukraine and its NATO-sponsored armies was inevitale. CHECK
2. That, following the failure of the counter-offensive, for Kiev to fight on would simply increase the depopulation and devastation of the Rump – though it might prolong a few European political careers, it would almost certainly lead to an ultimately fierce reaction again the craven and incompetent European elites. HALF-CHECK, underway.
and, somewhat more speculatively:
3. That the end-game would come when donor-fatigue set it…very probably in the US first. CHECK
4. As the ossified European political system could not adapt to changing realities, the change in the hostility toward Russia would most likely come from Washington – the Americans are capable of turning on a dime. DOUBLE CHECK
What still seems odd is that it was all so very obvious.
The question in my mind was simply how the baying mob would react to the final collapse of Project Ukraine.
Would they acknowledge their mistakes and learn from them (something I have had to do often enough in my career in finance)?
Not a chance!
Instead, we are met with indignant denialism and the angry gnashing of teeth, along with all manner of coping mechanisms – from wildly fantastical “estimates” of Russian losses, to predictions of imminent economic meltdown (how did your last bunch of predictions work out?), usually accompanied by ridiculously ahistorical references to the political situation in the Europe of nearly 100 years ago.
I stand by my prediction ( at least moderate conviction) that the war will be over by mid 2026 -and we can soon move on to more fruitful topics, e.g. the coming political revolution in Europe as the peasantry rises up against their masters.
Stay tuned!