Peace at last seems possible before Russia takes the Ukrainian coast. The EU will deservedly be humiliated

This is very good news and an achievement for Trump to set against his war crimes in Gaza and his bellicosity (his completely illegal attack on Iran and the murders in the Caribbean).

The role of the EU and the UK in this has been malign and completely ineffective, as is its role in Gaza. Since the creation of the EEC in 1957 Europe has declined markedly in importance not grown into a superpower.

Fred Weir, doyen of foreign correspondents in Moscow, yesterday had an encouraging view of the US Russian talks.

Specifically, these talks are the first real stab at genuine negotiations, and they are making real progress. A deal may be imminent. The Europeans have been sidelined and, in any case, do not seem able to rise above the level of spoilers. Russia is winning on the battlefield and no amount of magical incantations will change that fact. It's a war, and wars always finish with the victors spelling out the terms.

Having said that, the Russians seem willing at this moment to frame a settlement that leaves Ukraine with most of its territory, sovereignty, its democratic political system [such as it is], and even the right to join the EU. Putin wants this right now, not because he's fatally wounded on the battlefield, but because the Americans are dangling prizes that he wants more than total victory over Ukraine. The deal envisioned would grant some form of recognition to Russian control over Crimea and Donbass, set up a new European security architecture in which Ukraine is a permanent buffer between Russia and NATO, and the US and Russia would engage in serious business cooperation. That last point, as Aris notes in this piece, is critically important. Putin's Russia is an enthusiastically capitalist power, run by big business [much like the US] and eager to expand opportunities.

He quotes and agrees with this by Ben Aris:

So, I think we can say that the first meeting between the US representatives and Russian President Vladimir Putin yesterday went well.
Some progress was made and Putin ticked a lot of secondary boxes but made it clear the issue of territories is top of the agenda and that he will not backdown on that. He wants the West to acknowledge Russia’s ownership of at least the Donbas and the Crimea.
I should emphasise that this is the first real attempt to do a ceasefire deal and the deal on the table is one the Kremlin has made it very clear it can accept, with some finessing. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy only has to agree to neutrality and give up some land. However, as I keep pointing out he has already agreed to abandon Ukraine’s Nato ambitions in 2022 and give up some territory when he called for a referendum to unblock the constitutional ban in 2024. He just needs to go back to these positions, but that turns on getting security deals from the West, which keeps refusing to offer them.
Ironically, the key that will unlock this deal lies in the West’s hands. Brussels and Washington just have to man-up and guarantee Ukraine’s security and Zelenskiy can pull the trigger. It was always clear that he would have to give up some land like Finland, but he can’t do it without real security deals of some kind.
As I argued yesterday, the reason why Putin is digging his heels in, apart from the fact that he is winning on the battlefield so doesn’t need to compromise, is he is looking ahead to a post-Trump Americana and doesn’t want this whole conflict to flare up again if a new strongly pro-Ukraine administration comes in and decides to give Ukraine the support the West should have given in this conflict.
Moreover, the Kremlin is keen to do a deal as a clean negotiated end to the war will come with things like phased sanction relief which is infinitely more appealing than a messy military end that leaves the whole problem festering for generations. Putin is more motivated to do a deal that first appears.
But giving up land is going to be a bitter pill to swallow. Also what became clear from the read out of these talks is the US has entirely ignored both Europe and Ukraine’s version of the plans – which frankly are unworkable. I agree with Putin’s comments that these proposals were designed to kill the talks off, not suggested compromises to improve Kyiv’s deal. They were packed full of points like Nato troops stationed in Ukraine that are extreme positions that would be dismissed out of hand by the Kremlin. Putin has been accused of having a “maximalist” position. Well, Europe is guilty of the same thing.