Many British experts think the lockdown as it has been imposed in the United Kingdom was a mistake, as this free article in the Financial Times explains.
The numbers are entirely unreliable as a whole not only because we have no idea of the true level of infection but because the recorded Covid-19 fatalities are those where the virus was supposedly detected, whether or not there were other underlying (known) conditions. Covid-19 infection does not in and of itself necessarily cause disease. So Covid-19 “deaths” are being massively overstated amid the media, political, medical and social hysteria.
The CDC in the US is quite clear on this in its own instructions to laboratories administering the PCR test for Covid-19: “Positive results are indicative of active infection with 2019-nCoV but do not rule out bacterial infection or co-infection with other viruses. The agent detected may not be the definite cause of disease.”
See: http://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/rt-pcr-detection-instructions.html and scroll to the link titled, "CDC 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel Instructions for Use."
Meanwhile, according to Italy’s national health authority, only 0.8% of the victims who have died showed no other pathology / condition: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says
Covid-19 can be recorded as the cause of death based on a reasoned clinical assessment, whether or not they have been tested for the virus.
Professor Martin Marshall, chairman of the Royal College of GPs https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-record-weekly-death-toll-as-fearful-patients-avoid-hospitals-bm73s2tw3
Record weekly death toll as fearful patients avoid hospitals
England and Wales have experienced a record number of deaths in a single week, with 6,000 more than average for this time of year.
Only half of those extra numbers were attributed to the coronavirus. Experts said they were shocked by the rise, particularly in non-Covid-19 deaths, and expressed concern that the lockdown might be having unintended consequences for people’s health.
There are fears that patients are not seeking help for life-threatening conditions, including heart attacks, because they are worried about catching coronavirus in hospital.
Experts said that conditions such as diabetes or high blood pressure may also be proving harder to manage during the lockdown.
The latest figures are for the week ending April 3. They record certified deaths throughout the country, rather than only those recorded in hospitals.
Kat Lay, Health Correspondent Wednesday April 15 2020, 9.00am BST, The Times
A prominent Israeli mathematician, analyst and former general claims simple statistical analysis demonstrates that the spread of COVID-19 peaks after about 40 days and declines to almost zero after 70 days — no matter where it strikes, and no matter what measures governments impose to try to thwart it.
Prof Isaac Ben-Israel, head of the Security Studies program in Tel Aviv University and the chairman of the National Council for Research and Development, told Israel’s Channel 12 (Hebrew) Monday night that research he conducted with a fellow professor, analyzing the growth and decline of new cases in countries around the world, showed repeatedly that “there’s a set pattern” and “the numbers speak for themselves.” While he said he supports social distancing, the widespread shuttering of economies worldwide constitutes a demonstrable error in light of those statistics. In Israel’s case, he noted, about 140 people normally die every day. To have shuttered much of the economy because of a virus that is killing one or two a day is a radical error that is unnecessarily costing Israel 20% of its GDP, he charged.
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ReplyDeleteThe numbers are entirely unreliable as a whole not only because we have no idea of the true level of infection but because the recorded Covid-19 fatalities are those where the virus was supposedly detected, whether or not there were other underlying (known) conditions. Covid-19 infection does not in and of itself necessarily cause disease. So Covid-19 “deaths” are being massively overstated amid the media, political, medical and social hysteria.
The CDC in the US is quite clear on this in its own instructions to laboratories administering the PCR test for Covid-19: “Positive results are indicative of active infection with 2019-nCoV but do not rule out bacterial infection or co-infection with other viruses. The agent detected may not be the definite cause of disease.”
See: http://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/rt-pcr-detection-instructions.html and scroll to the link titled, "CDC 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel Instructions for Use."
Meanwhile, according to Italy’s national health authority, only 0.8% of the victims who have died showed no other pathology / condition: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says
Covid-19 can be recorded as the cause of death based on a reasoned clinical assessment, whether or not they have been tested for the virus.
ReplyDeleteProfessor Martin Marshall, chairman of the Royal College of GPs
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-record-weekly-death-toll-as-fearful-patients-avoid-hospitals-bm73s2tw3
Record weekly death toll as fearful patients avoid hospitals
ReplyDeleteEngland and Wales have experienced a record number of deaths in a single week, with 6,000 more than average for this time of year.
Only half of those extra numbers were attributed to the coronavirus. Experts said they were shocked by the rise, particularly in non-Covid-19 deaths, and expressed concern that the lockdown might be having unintended consequences for people’s health.
There are fears that patients are not seeking help for life-threatening conditions, including heart attacks, because they are worried about catching coronavirus in hospital.
Experts said that conditions such as diabetes or high blood pressure may also be proving harder to manage during the lockdown.
The latest figures are for the week ending April 3. They record certified deaths throughout the country, rather than only those recorded in hospitals.
Kat Lay, Health Correspondent
Wednesday April 15 2020, 9.00am BST, The Times
And many deaths from the virus in nursing homes are not recorded as such. We are flying blind.
DeleteA prominent Israeli mathematician, analyst and former general claims simple statistical analysis demonstrates that the spread of COVID-19 peaks after about 40 days and declines to almost zero after 70 days — no matter where it strikes, and no matter what measures governments impose to try to thwart it.
DeleteProf Isaac Ben-Israel, head of the Security Studies program in Tel Aviv University and the chairman of the National Council for Research and Development, told Israel’s Channel 12 (Hebrew) Monday night that research he conducted with a fellow professor, analyzing the growth and decline of new cases in countries around the world, showed repeatedly that “there’s a set pattern” and “the numbers speak for themselves.”
While he said he supports social distancing, the widespread shuttering of economies worldwide constitutes a demonstrable error in light of those statistics. In Israel’s case, he noted, about 140 people normally die every day. To have shuttered much of the economy because of a virus that is killing one or two a day is a radical error that is unnecessarily costing Israel 20% of its GDP, he charged.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-israeli-prof-claims-simple-stats-show-virus-plays-itself-out-after-70-days/
Yes very hopeful. I blogged about him in my latest post.
DeleteSaw that.
Delete