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Professor John Ioannidis, the professor of medicine, epidemiology, and population health at Stanford University and one of the leading men in the field. He says he is "perfectly happy" to be under virtual lockdown in California and recognises that a large number of elderly people may die from COVID-19 but thinks the death rates will be much much lower than people fear. He concludes in a new study that the risk of death from COVID-19 for people under 65 years, even in the places with the highest death-rates, is equivalent to the risk of a fatal car accident for people driving each day between 9 and 400 miles.
Why did a lot of people die in Italy, which led to the first lockdown in Europe?
In a video Professor Ioannidis explains that one reason is that Italy has the oldest population in Europe. The average age of death from COVID-19 in Italy is 81.
Everyone wanted to do their best to contain the outbreak
Professor Ioannidis said about 60 million people die per year on Earth but COVID-19 may be the only disease that has a website metre counting every single fatality.
Why did a lot of people die in Italy, which led to the first lockdown in Europe?
In a video Professor Ioannidis explains that one reason is that Italy has the oldest population in Europe. The average age of death from COVID-19 in Italy is 81.
"Also, most of these people have lots of other underlying diseases. Italy is a country with a very strong history of smoking.
"It has very high rates, therefore, of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. It has very high rates of coronary heart disease. And these are very strong risk factors for having a bad outcome in this infection."
"It still remains to be decided how many of these infections are deaths with SARS-CoV-2 versus deaths by SARS-CoV-2."
Everyone wanted to do their best to contain the outbreak
"So, they said 'we need to admit these people to the hospital even if they had modest or not so severe symptoms'. This resulted in a very bad decision-making. And I think that this is something that every other setting that is hit by an epidemic wave needs to avoid.
"By admitting these mild or moderate cases very quickly, they became saturated. And when they started getting the severe cases, they just had no room for them."
Professor Ioannidis said about 60 million people die per year on Earth but COVID-19 may be the only disease that has a website metre counting every single fatality.
The evidence from Hong Kong seems to be that the single most effective measure against contagion is mask-wearing. Yet masks were insufficiently available in all western countries, and wholly unavailable in most, because those countries had surrendered their production to China (along with the jobs of those who used to make them) in order to save two or three cents. Now China refused to export them; doctors in Bergamo and Brescia and Codogno were having to share masks meant to be discarded after treating every patient. What is that if not a crisis of globalization?
ReplyDeleteItaly never did close its borders or think to investigate the thousands of Chinese garment workers in the regions where the coronavirus was spreading fastest. Nor, until its own citizens were dropping like flies, did Spain limit the dozens of flight from Italy entering Barcelona and Madrid. Why not? Were those governments not even curious about what was going on?
There is no telling yet whether Trump will emerge from the coronavirus as a hero, a screw-up or something in between. But part of the confusion roiling American discussions is that the virus is proving the central part of the message on which the president was elected to be, at the least, reasonable. Globalization once seemed like it was all upside – a no-brainer. You get sushi and cheap Chinese toys in exchange for sovereignty, and what can you do with sovereignty? We are in the process of discovering the value, including the ‘money value’, of the sovereignty we’ve surrendered.
Christopher Caldwell
The Spectator’s May 2020 US edition
My favourite living writer, I think.
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