Sunday, 14 March 2021

32 studies find no evidence that lockdowns reduce the numbers of deaths from Covid-19

The American Institute for Economic Research (AIER) is an American free-market think tank with its office in Great Barrington, Massachusetts, which has issued publications which portray the risks of climate change as minor and manageable. In October it issued the "Great Barrington Declaration" which argued against lockdowns and for a strategy of achieving herd immunity to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Despite being written by eminent epidemiologists it was scarcely reported.

By this I do not mean that the lockdowns delay deaths which ensue after the lockdown is lifted, which you would expect, but that they do not prevent deaths in the first place.

Why on earth don't they work, assuming they don't?

The answer is because it is almost impossible to stop viruses spreading.

In England and Wales 40% of Covid deaths in England and Wales in spring were among care home residents, and a large proportion of Covid deaths happens in care homes in all affluent societies which put old people into care homes. 

Another reason is that very many people are infected in hospital. Public Health Scotland found that between half and two thirds of serious infections were picked up in hospital. This is paralleled in every country in the world. Care homes and hospitals are not protected by lockdowns. 

At the same time under lockdown half the British workforce were travelling to work, while only around a third work exclusively from home and lots of people shopped in shops not online. The same is true in every part of the world that's locked down. 

Meanwhile countries that did not have lockdowns at all, like Sweden, Iceland and Belarus, or only had lockdown last spring like Romania do better than countries that have rigorous lockdowns.

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