Tuesday 23 August 2022

Philip Short thinks Putin may well win


"I’m not convinced that the risk [Putin]’s taken is going to prove his undoing. I put that very cautiously. He may get perhaps even the most important parts of what he wants from the war in Ukraine, it’s not over yet, it’s going to be very nasty and it’s going to go on.”

So says Philip Short, former BBC man and graduate of Queens' College, Cambridge, who has just brought out a biography of Vladimir Putin, in a recent interview.

History is the only discipline at which you get better in old age. Mr. Short is in his 70s and writes with wisdom.

He wrote an article on the Guardian from which I quote this.

"Moscow does not have to achieve a great deal for Putin to be able to claim victory. It would be enough for Russia to control all of the Donbas and the land bridge to Crimea. He would certainly like more. If Russian troops take Odesa and the contiguous Black Sea coast, it would reduce Ukraine to vassalage. But even more modest gains would show the limits of US power. It is possible that Ukraine, with solid western backing, will be able to prevent that. But it is far from certain."

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