Thursday, 4 January 2024

Most people now accept that a ceasefire that hardens into peace is best for Ukraine - I used to be much criticised for saying so

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‘To say that we are closer to victory today is to believe in the face of the evidence, the optimists who have been wrong in the past. To say that we are mired in stalemate seems the only realistic, yet unsatisfactory, conclusion. It is increasingly clear to this reporter that the only rational way out then will be to negotiate, not as victors, but as an honorable people who lived up to their pledge to defend democracy, and did the best they could.’ Walter Cronkite, 27 February1968, quoted by Sir Lawrence Freedman

‘I think the offer to put Ukraine into NATO was a grave mistake and led to this war. But its scale, and its nature, is a Russian peculiarity, and we were absolutely right to resist it.’ The late Henry Kissinger's opinion on the war in Ukraine was mine too. He said that in May 2023.

'Putin has occupied 22 per cent of Ukraine’s land and inflicted horrific damage on the country. But in every other way he has failed in his war aims.... The problem facing western policymakers is that, however damaged Russia may be, Putin still wins by not losing. Biden has failed to mobilise the political will to make Ukraine a global war for democracy – or make the West its arsenal. That, most regrettably being the case, accepting the realities on the ground – de facto partition along the line of control, backed by security guarantees for Kyiv short of full Nato membership – is left as the only feasible solution.' Owen Matthews today in The Spectator. I disagree - why does Putin win by not losing? I think he loses by not winning, but agree with the rest.

1 comment:

  1. 'make the West its arsenal'

    Today NATO's armor capabilities are severely constrained in numbers and in fighting ability. Beyond that there is a low level of maintenance and a lack of spare parts, including replacement gun barrels.

    What this means in practical terms is that NATO is not ready to fight against Russian ground forces --its key armor systems are terribly vulnerable, its logistics are a mess, and its supply of parts and ammunition minimal.

    If NATO keeps shoveling arms into Ukraine, it will further weaken its war-fighting capability, something that seems to have got scant attention in NATO capitals, including the United States.

    STEPHEN BRYEN
    Weapons and Strategy
    https://weapons.substack.com/p/natos-war-problem-weak-armor

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