Now is no time to think of what you do not have.
Think of what you can do with that there is.
Ernest Hemingway, The Old Man and the Sea
Oh great, this will really help to counter the Kremlin's mendacious claim that Russia is fighting a war in which Ukraine is just a proxy for the US and NATO efforts to crush Russia. Putin may have the Russian people totally bamboozled, thinking they're up against the united West, but fortunately we've got the NYT to investigate and reveal the Truth:
Jack Matlock was the penultimate US Ambassador to the USSR. In a very insightful and profound discussion published yesterday with Glenn Diesen, he compares the war against Serbia in 1999, in which Nato "killed over a thousand men", with the bloodless Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014.
"That gave Putin a precedent, an almost perfect precedent, for the taking of Crimea."
He says the 2014 revolution in Kiev 'was actually a coup d'état'. People said this in 2014 and I did not see it.
How splendid the US old school diplomats were before, as Mr. Matlock says, the neo-cons 'took over the foreign policy of both our political parties' to justify heavy defence spending.
I think he is right that it was the military industrial complex wanting money that was to blame.
He says that "when we tried to spread democracy by military force or economic compulsion we failed and ended up losing a lot of our democracy at home".
'O good old man, how well in thee appears
The constant service of the antique world.'
(As You Like It Act 2, Scene 3)
When John Major, exasperated at the machinations of the Eurosceptic Right, called a leadership contest in 1995, Lady Thatcher was tempted to back John Redwood. Seymour told her that for a former Tory leader to publicly back a challenger to a sitting leader would be a step too far. “I told her I always thought JR a bit odd, and an impossible bet for PM at any time,” he recalled.
He got no reaction, “other than that look when you know either that she privately agreed or was thinking about it, but was never, ever to be drawn into agreeing out loud. In summary, heart will have said Redwood, head will have said No.”
"What, if anything, might reduce the neoconservative influence to its proper dimension (that is to say, almost nil)? I wish I knew, for if the past ten years haven’t discredited them, it’s not obvious what would. No doubt leaders in Moscow and Beijing derive great comfort from that fact: For what better way to ensure that the United States continues to lurch from crisis to crisis, and from quagmire to quagmire? Until our society gets better at listening to those who are consistently right instead of those who are reliably wrong, we will repeat the same mistakes and achieve the same dismal results. Not that the neoconservatives will care."
'Rules of engagement that permit destroying an entire civilian apartment building to kill one alleged terrorist is part of Joe Biden’s legacy. It’s still a war crime though, and Waltz’s text is a confession.' Matt Duss, who was Bernie Sanders' foreign policy adviser.
The best way to stop the Houthis attacking shipping is to give them what they want, which is a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.
Max Blumenthal calls the Houthis "the one force mounting one of the only principled humanitarian interventions in my lifetime".
You know not to trust a news source when it refers to the Houthis as 'Iranian proxies'. They obviously are not. They are as Blumenthal says 'fiercely independent'.
I wonder if there are any Iranian proxies as opposed to Iranian allies.
The mainstream media wants us to believe Russia, Iran and China are the threats to the West.
In fact the West is the main threat to the West.
It seems from the discussions in a group on Signal, in which they added by mistake the editor of the Atlantic (I am not making this up), a man that hates Trump, that the purpose of the very high level committee that decided to attack Yemen was to protect shipping, not just Israeli shipping.
They obviously do not read John Helmer's blog and do not know it was only Israeli shipping that the Houthis targeted, until the US and UK intervened against them when they not unreasonably targeted American and British ships too.
Trump 2.0’s approach to domestic reform, trade and alliances has been reckless. Trump's tariffs disrupted global markets; his handling of Ukraine and Russia emboldened adversaries; and his treatment of allies left many questioning America’s commitment to global leadership. But in the Middle East he's made some right moves, understanding what Biden seemed to miss: Peace through strength is sometimes the only way. Such is the long-overdue assault on the criminal hashtagHouthis.
The EU is set to exclude the US, UK, and Turkish arms companies from its €150 billion defence fund if their respective countries don't sign agreements with Brussels. That is of course.
Why did the UK not threaten to leave Nato as a bargaining chip during Brexit negotiations?
Because the UK is ruled by what Dominic Cummings calls the Blob and Messrs Trump and Vance consider is the transatlantic deep state (think William Hague).
Many countries have deep states. Romania (cancelled election) and the UK (Brexit struggle) are two obvious examples.
Some do not, such as Israel. Netanyahu is able to swat away, so far, the opposition of the courts, the generals and the secular Ashkenazi left-of-centre establishment that ruled the country after 1948 until Begin and the Likud (successors to the Irgun) took power.
"The fundamental weakness of Western civilisation is empathy." Elon Musk on The Joe Rogan Experience two weeks ago"While the Army has 108,000 personnel, since 2018 more than 155,000 illegal migrants – most of them young men from Islamic nations like Afghanistan, Syria, and Iran — have entered Britain on some 4,300 boats." Matt Goodwin on Saturday
The CCR argued that her public discourse, including opposition to Romania’s European Union and NATO memberships, made her unfit to uphold the constitutional obligations of the presidency.
"The world has now been diminished completely. There is no variety anywhere. You go off to the Congo and in the forest will find an advertisement for Coca Cola."
These, in the days when heaven was falling,
The hour when earth's foundations fled,
Followed their mercenary calling
And took their wages and are dead.
'We should be careful about romanticising Oscar Wilde, as the placing of a statue of him in the Strand last year did. Clearly, he was persecuted by the father of his male friend, Lord Alfred Douglas, the Earl of Rosebery [he meant Marquess of Queensbury, of course]. He wrote some fine plays and was quite a good poet. However, those who are concerned about paedophilia and sex tourism should know that Oscar Wilde was a paedophile and a sex tourist--[Interruption.] Labour Members shake their heads. Let them read the biography--[Hon. Members: "We have."] I can quote from memory that Alfred and Oscar competed for Neapolitan boys in 1897. What is that if not paedophilia and sex tourism? Let us hear no more nonsense about Oscar Wilde being a martyr to homosexual equality.'
One day last autumn I was sitting in my Temple chambers, wondering what I should do with myself in the Long Vacation, when I was aroused from my reverie by the entrance of my clerk...And so begins for E. F. Knight the journey that led him to write 'Albania: A Narrative of Recent Travel', which he published in 1880. A friend showed me a first edition of the book a couple of years ago. I loved the flavour of Oxford, Cambridge, public school and England at the zenith of her imperial self-confidence. In
Old fashioned left-wingers are more insightful than "conservatives" when it comes to foreign policy.
I miss the anti-war left (the formerly pacifist German Greens are now the most warlike party in Germany, etc), yet its heart is still beating.
Here is left-wing feminist Almut Rochowanski, in Responsible Statecraft today, on the mood in the chanceries of Europe
"A closer look at Europe also shows that a new bellicism has swept up the continent’s elites and gone into cataclysmic overdrive in recent weeks. Nowhere has this new martiality been more pronounced than in Germany, where political leaders and a new crop of “military experts” egg each other on.
"The latter have been abysmally wrong in their predictions of Ukraine’s certain victory and Russia’s imminent collapse again and again, but nevertheless dominate the country’s much-watched primetime debate shows. Last week, Germans were told that the coming summer will be the last one we will be at peace, because Russia will, under cover of war games in Belarus, invade NATO territory."
The Electoral Office decided last night that Calin Georgescu, who won the first round of the cancelled Presidential election in November, will not be allowed to stand in the postponed election. It's a brave new world. Frau von der Leyen and the panjandrums of the European Union will be pleased, so will the Soros people in Bucharest, but in Washington DC there will be another view.
Would there be an uprising like in December 1989? No, though I was told there would be. I thought of walking over to see but could not be bothered.
Some demonstrators appeared as a result of messages on social media, seemingly for the sake of letting pictures be sent around the world in seconds on X.
Almost everyone I know will be relieved except the waiters, porters, taxi drivers and shop assistants, the forty percent of the electorate who would vote for Georgescu and many who wouldn't.
I think absolutely any citizen should be allowed to stand in an election, even if in prison. Eugene Debs the Socialist contested a US presidential election from behind bars in 1920.
The CIA/MI6 run mainstream media backed the Islamists and justify their slaughter yesterday of 'pro-Assad forces'. I am glad I regretted the fall of Assad.
I wish there was a reasonable trustworthy source of information abut the news but there is not.
I have a good track record.
I saw the Cold War was unnecessary. I opposed the invasion of Iraq and at first of Afghanistan, though then I went along with it.
I thought on September 11 2001 that something like that was inevitable.
I wanted Ukraine to resist Russia in 2022 when invaded. I wanted negotiations to bring peace in Ukraine in the spring of 2022.
I should have followed Ukraine before the invasion. I'd have seen how the Americans were playing with fire. The Ukrainians got burnt.
It took me years though to understand that it is America that has been the big threat to world peace, not Russia, China or Iran.
I was probably wrong not to like Mrs Thatcher or Ronald Reagan. They were lesser evils than the progressives and to some extent their concern for freedom was genuine. They were the last conservatives to know that equality is a bad thing if you are on the right.
Mrs Thatcher did almost nothing that was conservative but she did raise British morale.
Backing the Democrats before Bill Clinton was a mistake but the mainstream Republican party was and is repulsive.
My big mistakes were cheering on the colour revolutions and not becoming Euroseptic and Natosceptic earlier. I should have backed Patrick Buchanan. I did back Ron Paul.
I should have followed the Arab Israel story and had Netanyahu's number but it bored me to pieces until 7 October 2023.
Elon Musk@elonmusk:
What I said over 2 years ago was that Ukraine should seek peace or suffer severe loss of life for no gains.
The latter was Zelensky’s choice.
Now, he wants to do that again.
This is cruel and inhumane.
Elon Musk@elonmusk Oct 3, 2022
Ukraine-Russia Peace:
- Redo elections of annexed regions under UN supervision. Russia leaves if that is will of the people.
- Crimea formally part of Russia, as it has been since 1783 (until Khrushchev’s mistake).
- Water supply to Crimea assured.
- Ukraine remains neutral.
'We know that Donald Trump perfected his schoolyard bully persona, shouting "you're fired!" over and over during 14 seasons of an awful reality TV show that he co-created. It's quite apt that the Times of London headline this morning reads: "Trump fired Zelensky like he was a loser on The Apprentice."
So it's unsurprising that he brings the same public grandstanding, hectoring style to diplomacy. I suppose he thinks it will work. But Volodymyr Zelensky is the elected leader of Ukraine, and publicly humiliating him is going to alienate the people he represents. I'm a Canadian, and I'm pissed-off, on principle, over the way he belittles our prime minister and ruminates about annexing Canada. Even in Moscow, where wrecking the US-Ukraine relationship should have a popular following, I don't think anyone is much impressed by that spectacle.
It's bad, bad, very bad diplomacy
'But someone has to set the histrionics aside and calmly analyze the underlying dynamics and suggest what, if anything, can be salvaged for the sake of the peace process. So, here's a good stab at that by Anatol Lieven and George Beebe, of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.'
I have no special knowledge about all that. I know what the Russians say, and can make some general observations from having been talking with them, and watching events, for years. First, Zelensky was elected on a clear peace platform. I was in Ukraine to cover the election -- I went to Mariupol to take the temperature -- and there is no doubt that people voted for Zelensky on the belief that he would implement Minsk II and negotiate peace with Russia. The Russians began to give up on him, and any hope for Minsk implementation, in the months after Putin and Zelensky met in Paris in December 2019. Second, the refusal of the West to negotiate a new security architecture for Europe, which would have kept Ukraine neutral, among other things, was probably the final straw for Putin. I'm not advocating for him -- I would have thought he had lots of options short of war -- but at some point in late 2021 he and a small circle of advisers clearly made the decision to invade, in the belief that they could effect a quick regime change and solve all their Ukraine problems at one fell swoop. That failed, in an epic way, and Moscow negotiated that abortive peace deal with Ukraine. He keeps referring to it. So, the main terms would have been Ukrainian neutrality, substantial demilitarization, and rights for Russian speakers. I'm guessing those will be the same bottom lines now, plus territory.
Trump's Ukrainian policy is very hopeful. America isn't interested in Nato. Is this a good moment for the United Kingdom to lose interest in Nato and European entanglements? To trade with everyone but not to get involved in wars in faraway countries between people of whom we know nothing?
What Germany and France and the European Union should do is join America and Ukraine in making a durable permanent settlement with Russia. Russian interests and those of the EU and Nato and Ukraine can be teconciled. Also please let us not have a cold war. No cold wars with Russia, China, Iran, Venezuela or Afghanistan please.
Was Zelensky ambushed by Trump and Vance or was Vance on what lawyers call a frolic of his own?
I am broadly in favour of Trump's Ukrainian and even Nato policy but the press conference, though huge fun, was disgraceful. It made Trump look small not big.
And how does this strengthen America's position negotiating with Russia?
Zelensky is annoying certainly but should have been treated respectfully as a head of state.
World leaders in future should refuse to take part in press conferences with Trump.
The London crowd will not cheer Trump's second State Visit to London but nor would they have done anyway nor will the King enjoy it.
But his mother hosted Ceaușescu.
Still is politeness better than telling the truth?
Trump intends to bring peace and Zelensky wants the war to continue. The Observer today explains that Zelensky is to blame for the disastrous press conference. He should not have visited Washington.
<The officials believed that had all been communicated to Ukraine, as was the advice that senators gave Zelenskyy on Friday morning to praise Trump and not litigate the issue of wanting stronger security guarantees to his face.
To Trump’s aides, Zelenskyy did not heed that advice when he expressed skepticism at JD Vance’s view of making peace with Russia and, in their view, lectured the US vice-president on the history of Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine that started in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea.
That set off a downward spiral in the Oval Office as Vance took issue with being questioned about his description of diplomacy, and clapped back at Zelenskyy: “I’m talking about the kind of diplomacy that’s going to end the destruction of your country.”>
Vance though aggressive was right, of course.
And why shouldn't the public see disagreements between heads of state over war and peace? Many of the pubic, it seems, prefer the lies to honesty. Not that Zelensky was being ingenuous in talking about Putin breaking agreements.