Stability and strong Government with me, or chaos with Ed Miliband

David Cameron

✔@David_Cameron

Britain faces a simple and inescapable choice - stability and strong Government with me, or chaos with Ed Miliband: https://www.facebook.com/DavidCameronOfficial/posts/979082725449379 …

Michael Savage@michaelsavage

It’s my view, based on nothing, that everyone should get to retweet the Cameron “chaos with Ed Miliband” tweet once.

I’m still saving mine up, on the basis that this is not peak chaos. Oh no, not even close.

270

12:01 AM - Mar 14, 2019

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In case you have forgotten, 'chaos with Ed Miliband' was the Tory theme in the 2015 election, in another age. 

After Theresa May resigned Ed Miliband changed his Twitter name to "Chaos with Ed Miliband". 

In the 2017 election Theresa May repeated over and over the phrase "Strong and stable" or "strong and stable leadership", a phrase she was told to use repeatedly by Sir Lynton Crosby. She said, in a meeting with her advisers, that the she didn't like the repetition of "strong and stable" which made her look "stupid", but she continued to repeat it anyway. So much for strength.

This is how bad things now are

Pete North

@PeteNorth303

I think the Professor (Peace & Conflict, Durham University) was in a self-satisfied coma when 17.4m people voted to leave the EU.

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Roger Mac Ginty

@rogermacginty

· 3h

Today a group of mainly white, privileged Englishmen get to vote on whether or not to make the lives of 70 million people more expensive and more complicated. That this is even up for debate says a lot about their privilege. #BrexitDebate

4:00 PM · Oct 19, 2019

Sunset at the Telephone Palace, Bucharest, last night

Boris Johnson tries to win the House and country round to his deal

If Sir Oliver Letwin does not pull his amendment and it passes today, the next step will be Tuesday’s meaningful vote to ensure that the UK can leave on October 31.


Some are saying a two week delay will be necessary but I bet Boris will not allow that to happen, if he has a choice. he said he would take us out by the 31st do or die when that seemed impossible and now it does seem possible.

Boris is in great form today - he is not usually good speaking in the House, though wonderful on the platform. He has spoken in the tone of 'glutinous emollience' which he promised to use two weeks ago.


Barry Sheerman compared him with Margaret Thatcher whom he disliked but whose sincerity he never doubted. He made it clear without using unparliamentary language that he thinks Boris a liar and charlatan. 

He has a good point about Mrs T. I disliked her too but her probity and deep seriousness of purpose look wonderful now compared with people like Donald Trump or all her successors as Tory leader, with the possible exceptions of Michael Howard and William Hague.


Boris, though he lacks so many things she had, is, I think, an equally big political figure and much more eloquent.

Boris's deal might scrape through today, but further delay likely thanks to Letwin

The Daily Mail publishes a poll carried out by Survation, which interviewed more than 1,000 people online that suggests 50% of the public believe MPs should vote for the deal, and 38% say they shouldn't. Another poll yesterday by YouGov showed: 38% favour remaining in the EU, 30% Mr Johnson's deal and 17% back leaving with no deal. 48% of Leavers now say they'd back the Johnson deal, compared to 33% who still favour crashing out with no deal in place.

The papers seem to think today's vote is on a knife-edge but predict a win for the Government by two or three votes.

Very importantly the amendment tabled by MP Sir Oliver Letwin, to withhold parliamentary approval until all the legislation to implement Brexit has been approved, would mean the Prime Minister would have to fail to keep his pledge and leave on the 31st do or die. 

Sir Oliver supports the deal but wants to prevent the Government winning today's vote, satisfying the Benn Act and then taking the country out of the EU by accident or design with no deal. Sir Oliver is a clever man and is responsible for the Poll Tax, which I could have told him would be a complete disaster, and the Fixed Terms Parliament Act.

Assuming the Letwin amendment is passed, and it looks like it will be, Brexit must be delayed. Will this mean an election before Christmas and before Brexit?

I hope it will just mean a delay of a fortnight. 

This article, 'This flawed deal is a tolerable price to pay for our freedom', by the head of Lawyers for Britain, is extremely informative. The deal is dreadful in quite a few ways but none the less it must be supported. The villain of the piece is the wretched Theresa May.

What people are saying about Boris's deal

Charles Moore in the Telegraph today:

The real difference between the May era and the Johnson one concerns what happens next. If Mrs May’s deal had got through in March, it would have failed to clear the poisoned political atmosphere. With Mr Hammond still in place as Chancellor and Britain locked in the Customs Union, our direction of travel in relation to the EU would have been slowly back in. Sensing that the Leave campaign had lost in all but name, and that the Government did not mind this, British officialdom would have signalled to Brussels that it was back in business. The Establishment’s culture war against the 17.4 million Leave voters would have launched a new offensive.



If the Government wins today’s vote – and if MPs avoid nullifying it by voting for a second referendum or another extension – the political atmosphere is transformed. After three years of failure, we shall have success. After three years of deadlock, we shall have breakthrough. In the endless political contest between hope and fear, hope will have triumphed. Yesterday, I heard the BBC’s Adam Fleming referring to “Boris’s infamous phrase: ‘Get Brexit done’.” If those words are infamous to the BBC, you can bet they resonate in the country.


Charles Utley, son of the great T.E. Utley, on Facebook (reproduced by his kind permission):

The first thing to be said about this deal is that it is significantly different from Mrs May's. Many of us, I suspect, feared that Mr Johnson would simply accept almost all of the previous deal and just make two or three tiny changes to it. That is not what has

Oh dear what a shame

It is a sin to take pleasure in others' misfortunes but I merely note that Simon Schama, AC Grayling and Jonathan Friedland are taking this very badly indeed. 

I think poor Schama may have lost his reason.

I back Boris's deal with gratitude - the option of leaving with no deal will still exist

I always thought Boris could pull it off against all the odds, inheriting a terrible bargaining position from his grossly incompetent predecessor, and in the face of the serried ranks of a Remain Parliament and civil service, the Benn Act and Lady Hale. 

I was sitting outside a cafe in Piata Amzei, enjoying the warm sunshine and reading the news, when I read that President Juncker had said that there will be no further postponement of Brexit. 

I laughed out loud so loud and for so long that the girl at the next table looked round. 'It's about Brexit', I said. I can't remember enjoying a piece of news more since I got a telegram aged 17 telling me I had won a scholarship to university.

Alas, Herr Juncker's remark was just flim-flam, it turned out. He has no power over whether a further delay is granted. It requires the unanimous consent of the 27 member states, who will not want to force us out with no deal. Though if our gallant Magyar friends do so they have great cover by quoting Juncker.


And does the deal still look a good one this evening?

Yes, I do back Boris's deal. It might be that leaving with no deal would be better or it might be worse, but I cannot see Parliament voting for it. Not even the next Parliament with somewhat fewer anti-Brexit Tory MPs. 

As Margaret Thatcher was wont to say, there is no alternative. For the time being.

No deal will not go away.As John Baron, a Brexiteer Tory MP, said on TV 

“if trade talks are not successful, we could leave on No Deal terms”. 

His saying that made it harder for the Government whips to try to get enough Labour MPs to vote to pass the deal.


I think Boris gambled by going for this deal and hoping the DUP would feel unable to vote against it. This is how he works, and how all gifted politicians work, by intuition, not by rational planning.

It was obvious to me that Boris wanted a deal rather than to leave with no deal. He wants to win an election and that a good deal is his best chance. I was very surprised that such acute analysts as Charles Moore simply did not know whether Boris wanted a deal.


He said a deal could be made in the last days and it has. He said the Irish would negotiate unilaterally and they did, that the EU would reopen the deal and they did. Shame on all the people, including Rory Stewart and innumerable people in the Independent and Guardian who said, with Olympian disdain, that these things were not possible. Shame most of all on Hilary Benn and his Benn Act that made Boris walk naked in to the conference chamber without the threat of no deal. Shame on Tony Blair, Lord Mandelson and Dominic Grieve.


Does Boris really expect the deal top pass the Commons tomorrow? I doubt he expects it but he hopes it will and wants to force it through by hope and faith and in the case of vacillating MPs charity. determination,  He wins in any case, as the man who did everything he could and was defeated by a political class that did not want to honour the referendum result that they promised to honour when they stood for election last time.

One whip is reported as saying, 

“It’s a tricky operation because on one hand we are telling Labour MPs is a case of deal or no deal and on the other we’re telling Spartans it’s a case of deal or no Brexit". 

In fact no deal seems unlikely for now - but no Brexit is still a real possibility, if a new government is formed for example led by John Bercow or Ken Clarke.

The DUP think they have been hung out to dry by Boris, after they conceded the principle of customs checks in the North Sea. But he is keeping his promise to take the whole UK out of the EU, Northern Ireland included, with a new customs arrangement capable of being replaced in the future, if so desired, by Stormont.

But the DUP have been very stupid. They have foregone a wonderful deal they could have made with the EU and Westminster for slowly being talked into assenting to the deal. The deal will help the Northern Irish economy much more than leaving with no deal would, and in particular would favour Protestant farmers.

Ruth Dudley Edwards said in the Daily Mail,

"A hard-line but pragmatic Unionist friend wrote the following to me today:
"‘Here,’ he said, ‘is what I would say to the DUP. Get real! This [Brexit deal] isn’t ideal, but it could put Northern Ireland in a terrific position as a gateway between the EU and the UK/world economy.
"‘Also, our position in the UK is frankly shaky – the medium-term outlook demographically is terrible and the DUP aren’t to be the olive branch Unionism needs into RC communities and people in GB have limited patience. So in short, shut up, DUP.’"

I suspect no Tory MPs in the end will follow the DUP's lead.

Former Official Unionist First Minister of Northern Ireland Lord (David) Trimble backs the new Brexit deal and certifies that it is ‘fully in accordance with the spirit of the Good Friday Agreement'. As we all knew.

Yesterday's deal is significantly different from Mrs May's. It gets rid of the backstop rather than renaming it and it enables the UK to make free trade agreements with the USA and other countries. The EU had been talked into believing a customs border between Northern Ireland and the Republic would breach the Belfast Agreement and lead to violence. it would never be possible to rid them of this idea which Theresa May confirmed when she promised not to have a customs barrier in Ireland. 

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard dislikes the deal but thinks we should settle for it and points out that if Boris wins the next election after the deal is agreed,

the negotiating dynamic with Brussels will be different in 2020. The EU will not be able to play off Westminster tribes against each other so easily. The cliff edge for the UK will be less severe since the May/Johnson deal does resolve a string of technical issues such as nuclear ties under Euratom or landing rights for aircraft, etc.

This makes a WTO walk-out more plausible, and therefore more menacing for the EU as it tries to preserve its £95bn trade surplus with the UK (while offering no reciprocal access for services, of course).

Olly Robbins was overheard in a bar saying the backstop would be a bridge to a deal - a deal that would pretty much be like remaining in a customs union with the EU. Boris's aim is to have a free trade agreement with the EU without the EU's excessive regulation. I hope for Canada dry but doubt the EU will wear it - but we shall have the threat of no deal to help persuade them.

Deputy Chief Constable Julie Cook's 2 minute address to the nation marking International Pronouns Day

I failed to link to DCC Julie Cook's 2 minute speech marking #pronounsday, standing in front of a screen with Cheshire Constabulary written on it, about the importance when addressing or speaking about "transgender people" of using the pronouns those people prefer. Here it is. 

I also apologise for saying she was a DC - Detective Constable -  whereas she is someone with lots of power, a Deputy Chief Constable.

Her somewhat menacing pronouncement was much retweeted and roundly abused by a nation that is not yet supine.  

She was accused of virtue-signalling but there was no virtue in what she was saying, from a small-c conservative point of view, but only a power-grab by the police and an attempt to change individuals and society. 

Why can't society be allowed to evolve organically, without help from the police? 

Deputy Chief Constable Julie Cooke, national lead on LGBT issues for the National Police Chiefs Council, advises the public on pronouns

Julie Cooke

@DCCJulieCooke

Today marks #pronounsday – seeking to make sharing, educating and respecting personal pronouns commonplace. 

@pronounsday




Here is the spoken message she tweeted. 

Marriage, Robert Louis Stevenson said, is a sort of friendship recognised by the police.

Now they recognise all sorts of friendships and all sorts of sexes too.

In June DC Cooke was criticised for wearing an LGBT rainbow coloured lanyard (a sort of string around her neck) by the chairman (the BBC called him the chair) of the Cheshire police and crime panel that oversees the force's Police and Crime Commissioner (PCC). He said she was in breach of impartiality regulations.

Cheshire's Police and Crime Commissioner (PCC), David Keane (Labour) said Mr Fousert's comments were "deeply shocking" and rainbow lanyards and badges were "about promoting fairness, openness and equality". A conservative member of the panel expressed support for what the Cheshire police did to raise tolerance.

DC Cooke tweeted that she would "continue to show my support for the LGBT+ community internally and externally." The Chief Constable of Cheshire Darren Martland tweeted:"The exceptional work of DCC Cooke and Cheshire Constabulary in recognising difference and encouraging inclusion of LGBT+ communities is to be celebrated and applauded."