Saturday 19 October 2019

Boris's deal might scrape through today, but further delay likely thanks to Letwin

The Daily Mail publishes a poll carried out by Survation, which interviewed more than 1,000 people online that suggests 50% of the public believe MPs should vote for the deal, and 38% say they shouldn't. Another poll yesterday by YouGov showed: 38% favour remaining in the EU, 30% Mr Johnson's deal and 17% back leaving with no deal. 48% of Leavers now say they'd back the Johnson deal, compared to 33% who still favour crashing out with no deal in place.

The papers seem to think today's vote is on a knife-edge but predict a win for the Government by two or three votes.

Very importantly the amendment tabled by MP Sir Oliver Letwin, to withhold parliamentary approval until all the legislation to implement Brexit has been approved, would mean the Prime Minister would have to fail to keep his pledge and leave on the 31st do or die. 

Sir Oliver supports the deal but wants to prevent the Government winning today's vote, satisfying the Benn Act and then taking the country out of the EU by accident or design with no deal. Sir Oliver is a clever man and is responsible for the Poll Tax, which I could have told him would be a complete disaster, and the Fixed Terms Parliament Act.

Assuming the Letwin amendment is passed, and it looks like it will be, Brexit must be delayed. Will this mean an election before Christmas and before Brexit?

I hope it will just mean a delay of a fortnight. 

This article, 'This flawed deal is a tolerable price to pay for our freedom', by the head of Lawyers for Britain, is extremely informative. The deal is dreadful in quite a few ways but none the less it must be supported. The villain of the piece is the wretched Theresa May.

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