Sunday 27 October 2019

Boris will get his election

I am a long way away but I am surprised at the wrong calls British political analysts make. Robert Peston, whose world view I cannot stand, argued repeatedly that Theresa May's negotiation would end in us leaving with no deal. I no longer bother reading him.

Mujtaba Rahman argued that Boris could not have an election because the House would not vote to give him one by a two-thirds majority, ignoring the fact that amending the FTPA requires only a simple majority. 

John Rentoul, whom I think fairly good, said today that amending the FTPA by a simple majority would not work because the SNP and Lib Dems - who want an election soon and before Brexit - would not let one happen unless the franchise was given to sixteen year olds - and that whipless Tory rebels would support this blatant vote-rigging.

I could not believe this for several reasons and it turns out that I was right. Boris looks set to amend the FTPA without lowering the voting age.

I still wish he gets Brexit done before he goes to the country but he, the SNP and  the Lib Dems think they can win more seats in a pre-Brexit election.

They may well all be right but Boris could be wrong. We could have a minority Labour

government supported by the SNP in return for allowing them a second independence referendum. 

It is harder to have a majority government than it was. We no longer have a two party system and that is before the two main parties dissolve into whatever they are going to become.

The Lib Dems will win many votes from Labour but these may enable them to take many Tory seats. An anti SNP pact would save Labour Tory and SNP seats but will not happen.

Jeremy Corbyn now says a delay to 31 January doesn't meet his condition for no-deal being "off the table". Only a law preventing it ever happening, which would make Boris unable to negotiate a FTA, is good enough for Mr Corbyn to agree an election. 

In an interview with the BBC's Westminster Hour, due to be aired this evening, Tony Blair warned Mr Corbyn to stick to this policy. Mr Blair says he thinks the likely outcome of the FTA negotiations would be no deal. Does he really?

Fortunately Mr Corbyn's agreement will not be needed.

Thank God for an election to break the impasse - this could not go on, except that it could, indefinitely - but I am full of great fears. 

Please pass Brexit first.

1 comment:

  1. The problem is that Boris's agenda is not to get Brexit through, or to get the best deal for the country. Boris's agenda is to advance Boris's career. So election or no election, if it's in Boris's interests to sell anyone and everyone out he will.

    Of course that's true of all politicians to a large extent, but Boris is an extreme case of political cynicism taken to the max.

    The most disastrous outcome would be another five years of Boris as PM, but Boris with an absolute majority. The amount of harm he could do in five years doesn't bear thinking about. It could be a combination of the worst features of Thatcherism and the worst features of Blairism.

    These days the only safe election outcomes are minority governments. A coalition of gangsters is preferable to one gangster in complete control.