Some leaders are losers. Hitler, Stalin and Enver Pasha come to mind. Theresa May is, of course, another.

There are losers and winners in life. Some people who become leaders of their country are losers and in those cases their countries lose with them. Examples abound but Adolf Hitler, Stalin and Enver Pasha come immediately to mind. Theresa May is, of course, another.

Looking back at what might have been is a character flaw, but it does illuminate the way history happens by accident, more than because of large historical tendencies.

With Brexit the large trend is that most British people, unlike people in the other member states, never liked or believed in the EU. At least not until the referendum, when some discovered that they loved it. The smaller picture is that politicians, to use a rugby expression, fumbled the ball.

After calling an election in which she lost the majority that David Cameron and George Osborne had won Theresa May said,

"I got us into this mess, and I'm going to get us out. ... as leader "

She did not get us her party out of the mess. It was obvious that she couldn't and she should have resigned in favour of Boris or Michael Gove or anyone then.

David Cameron promised that if the referendum was won by Leave he would stay to implement the decision. He should have said on the morning after the referendum

 "I got us into this mess [for he thought it was one], and I'm going to get us out." 

He should many months earlier have instructed his civil servants to have a contingency plan ready - instead he ordered them not to do so. 

That plan could have been the Norway or Canada options. Both were off the peg solutions. We would have had the initiative and a deal would have been made by now. 

The Tory party would probably be in a strong position now in the polls.

This, not the referendum itself but not preparing a Plan B, is why David Cameron has done his country immeasurable harm.

I hope Boris is a winner and think he probably is. We shall see.

Boris surprised the day-long cabinet meeting at Chequers, the Prime Minister's 'grace and favour' official residence, by his reaction to Theresa May's deeply disappointing deal. He said, using a rude word he is fond of, 

“Anyone defending the proposal we have just agreed will find it like trying to polish a turd. Luckily, we have some expert turd-polishers in this Government.”

Later, over dinner, he seemed to be cheerful. It was David Davis resigning the next day that made Boris resign the day after that, for self-interested motives. Had he not done so David Davis would have become leader of the Brexiteers. 

By resigning, Boris made it inevitable that Mrs May's eventual withdrawal agreement, worse even than Chequers, would not pass the House. So at least thinks the streetwise George Osborne. David Davis's principled resignation was therefore a lucky thing for Boris.

David Davis might have saved his country a world of pain had he toppled Theresa May after the last election, even though he was a useless Brexit Minister. He backed Dominic Raab, not Boris, to be Prime Minister.

4th July question - what is America?

Today is the 4th of July when Americans celebrate their rebellion. A friend sent me this quotation from my beloved Dr Johnson.

To a man of mere animal life, you can urge no argument against going to America, but that it will be some time before he will get the earth to produce. But a man of any intellectual enjoyment will not easily go and immerse himself and his posterity for ages in barbarism.

He of course was talking about the America of his day, largely savage. 

A.J.P. Taylor said we visit countries for architecture and food and America has neither. Again be understanding, gentle American reader. He meant, of course, old buildings and a national cuisine. He also speculated that if

US Southern border has become a party advertised on Facebook

Lionel Shriver is a very good writer. In today's Spectator she (Lionel can be a girl's name in the United States, just as Beryl and Dana can be men) informs us that the US Border Patrol now apprehends 4,200 migrants at the southern border daily, 610,000 a year. 

She thinks, and is probably right, that the Democrats cannot win if all their candidates want to stop deporting illegals but to give them free health care instead. Yet this is the policy of Democrat candidates in their recent debate. She says,

'I felt as if I were watching a 2020 Trump advert, in which these lavish displays of generosity and love for all humankind at American citizens’ expense are certain to feature. 

'You don’t need a PhD in political science to decode that if you never arrest the uninvited, you almost never kick them out, and you throw in free health care to boot, you’re advertising the kind of over-attended, more-the-merrier party that gets so many young people in trouble on Facebook when their parents leave town. Along with Democratic support for immigrant amnesties and pathways to citizenship, these positions amount to an open borders policy. Guess what? Eight out of ten Americans oppose open borders. Some of those folks even vote.'

Jeremy Hunt's Canadian option plan should be implemented by Boris

Jeremy Hunt supported Remain in the referendum campaign, after the result thought a second referendum would be needed, came round to believing in leaving but warned that leaving with no deal would be a disaster. Yesterday he announced his 10-point plan for leaving with no deal on October 31 and yet it is Boris who is accused of being unprincipled.

 “We took the decision on Friday to go ‘alt-right,'” someone in the Hunt campaign told Politico's Playbook 'jovially', on the assumption that Mr Hunt's Remainer supporters will continue to regard him as a lesser evil compared to Boris. In any case, Leavers are a big majority among Tory members, especially since large numbers joined the party to have a vote. I meant to, but left it too late.

Journalists are furious that Boris keeps avoiding them and their proposals for debate, which are attempts to take over the political agenda. I miss the days when these things were decided among MPs behind closed doors. 

Posterity

When Sir Max Beerbohm received an invitation to lunch with Swinburne at his home at The Pines, No 2, Putney High St, he felt as if he had been asked to meet Catullus.

No. 2—prosaic inscription! But as that front-door closed behind me I had the instant sense of having slipped away from the harsh light of the ordinary and contemporary into the dimness of an odd, august past. Here, in this dark hall, the past was the present. Here loomed vivid and vital on the walls those women of Rossetti whom I had known but as shades. Familiar to me in small reproductions by photogravure, here they themselves were, life-sized, "with curled-up lips and amorous hair" done in the original warm crayon, all of them intently looking down on me while I took off my overcoat—all wondering who was this intruder from posterity.

Beerbom was an intruder from posterity, but now his world seems one with Babylon and Ninevah. 

Thomas Jordan was the official City of London Poet, but reminds me of the Cavalier Poets, who were the antithesis of the City men. In him and them you hear the last faint echo of the Elizabethan lyric tradition. His contemporaries rightly accused him of vulgarity, but compared with Lord Rochester he is an altar boy.

He died in 1685. This is from his anthology piece, Coronemus nos Rosis antequam marcescant.

Your beautiful piece, who has all eyes upon her

Who, her honesty sells, for an hogo of honour,

Churchill, Stalin and Roosevelt drink a toast

From War Diaries 1939-1945 by Field Marshal Lord Alanbrooke, p. 487. The date is November 30, 1943. The occasion is a banquet at the Teheran Conference.

"It was a wonderful evening, full of the most witty speeches on the part of Winston, President [Roosevelt] and Stalin. On one occasion, when Winston was referring to political tendencies in England he said the whole political world was now a matter of tints and that England could be said to have now quite a pink look. Without a moment's hesitation, Stalin snapped back "a sign of good health!" The President finished up by returning to the tint theme and said that the effect of this war would be to blend all those multitudinous tints, shades and colours into one rainbow where their individuality would be lost in the whole, and that this whole represented the emblem of hope! It was a fine idea and far better put that I have. Finally by 1:30 am I was able to escape to bed." 

"Immigration controls are inherently racist in that they are based on the crudest of all nationalisms — namely the assertion that the British have a franchise on Britain."

Immigration controls, according to Steve Cohen,

“are inherently racist in that they are based on the crudest of all nationalisms, namely the assertion that the British have a franchise on Britain."

You may want to read that again slowly.

Steve Cohen was described on as 

"one of the giants of immigration law"

and wrote a book called No One Is Illegal. 

He sounds like he was invented by Michael Wharton (Peter Simple long ago in the Daily Telegraph) but he was real. 

He is not someone you have heard of and died in 2009, but is representative of an important element of left-wing and liberal thinking. 

No doubt his books still are influential in the Labour Party, NGOs and among people who are concerned about migrants. 

According to his obituary on a left-wing site, he

dedicated his life to anti-racism and anti-Semitism, particularly the welfare of immigrants and refugees and those seeking the right to remain in the UK. Educated at Oxford University, Steve became a human-rights lawyer in Manchester, founding a Law Centre and creating the Immigration Aid Unit. He was politically opposed to immigration controls in their totality and took part in many anti-deportation and immigration campaigns both as a lawyer and a campaigner.

He was a Trotskyite, as are Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell, who probably share his views on open borders. I wonder if they share his views on antisemitism.

In 1984 he wrote a book called That’s Funny, You Don’t Look Antisemitic, on the subject of left-wing antisemitism. The online version was tweeted in January of this year from the official Twitter account of Momentum, the hard left group that backs Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and their gang.

Liberalism is thankfully dying

Theresa May wastes British taxpayers'  money attending things like the G20 summit when she is no longer the British leader. Had she resigned in time Boris could have been there, which would have been useful. She took time to berate Vladimir Putin, but no-one cares what she says.

"Name dropping, I think Mr. Putin is probably the nastiest man I ever met and I have met him on about a dozen occasions."

Lord 'Chris' Patten said this on Jonathan Dimbleby's last 'Any Questions' programme on BBC Radio Four last night. Lord Blunket, who is blind, then said that his dog started barking when he met Vladimir Putin at a reception. He said he hoped he was not breaching a confidence when he said 

"I said to the Queen, 'I'm sorry, your majesty' to which she replied  'Dogs have interesting instincts, don't they, Mr Blunket?'"

The dog was right. Vladimir Putin is a very unpleasant man indeed, a street thug, the man who invaded Ukraine and provoked several proxy wars in defence of what he saw as Russian interests. He seems unrepentant about the attempt by his secret service to kill a former Russian spy on English soil in Salisbury, a very mysterious story.

He attacked liberalism in an interview with the Financial Times just before the summit. I quote from it.

"One can criticise Trump for his intention to build a wall between Mexico and the US. It could be going too far. Yes, maybe so. I am not arguing about this point. But he had to do something about the huge inflow of migrants and narcotics. Nobody is doing anything. They say this is bad and that is bad as well. Tell me, what is good then? What should be done? Nobody has proposed

Back in the jug agane!

Back to my home town, Southend-on-Sea, Essex, decades after leaving.

Southend now has a small and human scale international airport, which conveniently even has its own railway station, a stop between my native place, the charming country village of Rochford, and Prittlewell which is part of Southend.

From the airport station platform I can see the hulking, sinister chimneys of the Rochford Maternity Hospital where I was born in 1961. They make me think of Auschwitz. 

I take a train in the other direction, a £3.50 single to Southend Victoria that takes ten minutes. I get talking to two nice sixty-something American tourists who have been all over Great Britain and tell them of my reservations about meeting the people from my grammar school after 39 years. 

'Well you will be the only one who lives in Bucharest', says the woman sweetly. This was exactly the right thing to say.

Kenneth Clarke: "And what is going to happen about Brexit? I haven’t a clue."

I always liked Kenneth Clarke and am reading his autobiography. I was interested to learn that he was a working class Nottinghamshire boy. 

Understandably he thought in the 1950s that the Labour Party was hopelessly out of date. This was a common and accurate view among manual workers then as now.

I used to consider myself a left-wing Tory, despite agreeing with most of what High Tory Cambridge dons like Edward Norman, Maurice Cowling and John Casey wrote. I agreed with everything Charles Moore said until he talked about economics or attacked the EEC.

Sir Roger Scuton said Margaret Thatcher offered nothing to conservatives like him and nor did she to me. She seemed simply to be about free market economics, but I was mistaken. 

Her Toryism was not exhilarating or romantic and seemed to be the Daily Mail made flesh. She did not express or seem to feel concern for the working class, but she was a patriotic Tory of an unrefined sort. She was certainly no social conservative, but at least she was not a social liberal. Liberal Toryism is a direct descent from Edward Heath, via Cameron and Osborne (the late Frank Johnson said they sounded like upmarket wallpaper-makers) to Theresa May's and Amber Rudd's horrible left-of-centre authoritarianism.

People said that the Tories were stupid not to choose Ken Clarke as their leader and in hindsight they were, but even by 2001 I found myself wondering if there was much difference between him and Labour. But it turned out that there was a big difference over Iraq.

Quotations

'It may be said, however, that even if the theoretical book-trained Socialist is not a working man himself, at least he is actuated by a love of the working class. He is endeavouring to shed his bourgeois status and fight on the side of the proletariat–that, obviously, must be his motive.

'But is it? Sometimes I look at a Socialist–the intellectual, tract-writing type of Socialist, with his pullover, his fuzzy hair, and his Marxian quotation–and wonder what the devil his motive really is. It is often difficult to believe that it is a love of anybody, especially of the working class, from whom he is of all people the furthest removed. The underlying motive of many Socialists, I believe, is simply a hypertrophied sense of order. The present state of affairs offends them not because it causes misery, still less because it makes freedom impossible, but because it is untidy; what they desire, basically, is to reduce the world to something resembling a chessboard.'

George Orwell, The Road to Wigan Pier

The Tory leadership contest is a disaster

As I predicted, the Tory leadership contest is a disaster, wasting time, dividing the party badly and forcing Boris to adopt positions which he might later want or need to abandon. 

I wonder if Jeremy Hunt can sit in Boris's cabinet after what he has said about him. 

People like Messrs Gauke and Stewart have already said they won't. 

Philip Hammond must be for the old heave-ho. I hope against hope that the appalling Miss Rudd does not get a job, but bet she does. 

The trouble is that, even with the DUP, the Government only has a majority of three, and after the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election on August 1 it will probably be two, so discontented former cabinet ministers are going to be a big threat to a Boris government. 

i (the name of a newspaper) has been told that up to 20 Conservative MPs could be

Boris campaigning against Sky News, Channel 4 and the BBC

The only knowledge of psychology that a historian needs is that all men seek power. 

It is not quite true (the eighth Duke of Devonshire turned down the premiership three times, for good reasons) but it is true enough and it applies to the media too.

British broadcasters, most of them ardent Remainers, worked very hard to get debates between candidates in the first round of the Tory leadership election, in which only Tory MPs voted. That round would have been better conducted behind closed doors but debates and interviews on television and radio let the media set the agenda, for the country as well as for the programme. 

Now in the final run-off, decided by Tory members, the media are trying to pin down Boris (hard to do, more because he is chaotic than devious, though he is both). They will limit his freedom to find a creative solution to the Gordian knot of Brexit.

TalkRADIO’s Ross Kempsell  won plaudits from other journalists for eliciting Boris Johnson’s assertion that the U.K. will leave the EU on October 31, with or without a deal, “do or die,” something Johnson said when repeating Mr. Kempsell’s question about no deal back to him. A transcript of the interview is here.

Mr Kempsell also got Boris to reveal that  he makes toy buses out of wine cases in order to

Everything you need to know about Boris Johnson

Life is short and we all have a lot of things to do. Even if you are interested in politics, there are a lot of things to read. However, the one thing you should read this year about world politics is this very funny account by Jeremy Vine of how Boris Johnson turned up at an awards ceremony four minutes before he was due to speak, unaware that he was due to speak and completely unaware of the subject about which he would speak.

Boris had the look of a man who had been dragged out of a well by his ankles. His blond hair seemed to spring vertically from his head as he embarked on some opening remarks, where the occasional word, not always the obvious one, was shouted at double-volume.

‘…errrrr, Welcome to THE International. Errrrr…’

The catastrophe had happened. He did not know, could not remember, what event he was at. This is one of the biggest fears any speaker has, forgetting where they are.

Johnson then did a crazy thing. To find out where he was, he very obviously turned around and looked at the large logo projected at the back of the stage.
‘…to the International SECURITISATION Awards! YES!’ he cried triumphantly, and to my amazement it brought the house down. There was a huge cheer. Everyone realised this was not going to be a normal speech. The chaos had descended on us, we were in it, and we were going to enjoy it.

He even managed to forget the punchline to the story about George Brown and the woman in the red dress and it didn't matter.

There is always one anecdote that tells you everything you need to know about a historical figure. With General Franco it is the story of his signing death warrants while talking to the Italian Foreign Minister Count Ciano by the fireside in his snug, occasionally scribbling the word 'Garotte' beside his signature. 'I can come back later if you are busy.' 'Oh no, this is just routine.' 

With Boris this is the story you need to keep in mind. Please make sure you read it all the way to the end and don't stop reading after the end of the account of the first awards ceremony. 

Boris is the necessary man

An argument with his girlfriend over some wine he spilt on her white sofa seems an insubstantial reason for thinking Boris Johnson unfit for high office but the anti-Boris press has used the wine stain artfully to try to destroy him. 

The Sunday Times published an interesting character assassination of Boris Johnson by Sonia Purnell, who was his colleague on the Daily Telegraph, and a good case for the defence by his biographer, Andrew Gimson.

Once leaving his wife for a girlfriend could have been fatal to his chances but Tories seem not to care about that any more. Nigel Lawson, Douglas Hurd and many other Tories even in the old days did this. The return of Alan Clark to the House as a Tory MP, after he had published in his diaries his relations with a married woman and her two daughters, in one bed, marked the absolute end of the era of Tory sexual morality.

In any event, Mrs. Johnson, née Marina Wheeler, was Boris's girlfriend when he was married to his first wife.  

Ed Miliband lived with his girlfriend when he was expected to become Prime Minister in 2010 (what a lot of water has flown under the bridge since then), as did a number of European leaders. Once, not long ago, being a lesbian and mother of a test tube baby would have ruled out the Scottish Tory leader, Ruth Davidson, from a career in Tory politics.

Boris lied about his love affair with Petronella Wyatt and was therefore sacked by Michael Howard from the front bench, which meant he was unable to take part in the next leadership election and perhaps become Michael Howard's successor. He was at the start of his career fired by the Times for making up two stories. He has one or two (or how many is it?) illegitimate children and cheated on both his wives. 

However there is no alternative, at least now that Michael Gove and Dominic Raab failed to make the cut. 

Michael Gove anyway lost his chance by not resigning over Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement and Dominic Raab, who did resign, does not have magic. 

Magic is needed.

Boris is the best, perhaps the only hope for his party and his country.

Jeremy Hunt, who Alison Pearson accurately said looks like a frightened gerbil, was in favour of Remain and, after the referendum went the way he didn't like, wanted it to be held again. Later he decided he wanted to leave the EU after all. He is a manager, not a leader. He would be Theresa May 2, though not quite as dull.

He should step down and let Boris come to office and try to sort out the crisis. No-one imagines, spilt wine or not, that Jeremy Hunt will win the hearts and minds of Tory members.

George Osborne, who was clever to accept the job of editor of the Evening Standard but should have combined it with staying in the Commons, endorsed Boris Johnson for leader of the party in an editorial. 

‘If Mr Johnson governs as the “modern Conservative” he promises to be today he can put his party, and country back on track.
That’s why we believe if there’s one of these candidates who can give Britain back its mojo, it’s BoJo.’

This is a reminder that Boris Johnson a social liberal who is very easy-going on immigration once argued for an amnesty for illegal immigrants. This is very unfortunate, as halting Third World and inter-European immigration is an existential matter, much more important than leaving the EU. 

Despite this, and despite (for now) having a half Indian wife, he is assailed by accusations of being a racist.

Young people in the media hate Mr Johnson as much as they hate Mr Trump. Mr Johnson having met Steve Bannon, who wrote Donald Trump's inauguration speech, is treated by the Sunday Times as evidence of a far right connection. (Far right used to mean Sir Oswald Mosley and General Franco - is Donald Trump far right?) 

George Osborne took the opposite line in his editorial:

‘Ask yourself which of these potential Prime Ministers is most likely to persuade the Conservative Party to vote for a repacked version of the existing deal? The one with the greatest credibility with hard Brexiteers.’

After the referendum some Brexiteers warned that if Boris were Prime Minister he would go for a soft Brexit, like the Norwegian model. Jeremy Hunt argued for something similar. This might be the best solution for now at least. 

Otherwise we have to leave without a deal.

Quotations

“One can never successfully lie to a fiction writer, because we know all about making things up.”

William Trevor





"People are of immense importance but the relations between them are not."

E.M. Forster


"There's something about a 'varsity man that distinguishes him from a cad:





You can tell by his tie and blazer he's a 'varsity undergrad,





And you know that he's always ready and up to a bit of a lark,





With a toy balloon and a whistle and some cider after dark."


Sir John Betjeman





"Drugs are instead of people."

Eric Berne

Lending votes to kill Michael Gove

If they have any sense, which they have, Team Boris will lend votes to Mr. Javid or Mr. Hunt, equally useless politicians, to make sure that Michael Gove, who is very substantial indeed, is not in the last round with Boris.

Whoever it is should promptly stand down and let Boris get down to work as Prime Minister.

The media are trying to kill Boris

Rory Stewart, the Tory candidate that people who are not Tories like, is out. 

He was very impressive, but the joke had worn thin.

Boris's managers lent votes to Jeremy Hunt last time, because he is a weak candidate, and may have lent some this time to Sajid Javid, another weak one, to get rid of the vexatious, not very Tory Rory.

Or maybe they lent votes to Rory Stewart to delete Dominic Raab.

The London media class and a large part of London graduates, especially ones from Oxford and Cambridge, liked him because they hate Brexit and hate Boris Johnson, just as the same class once hated Margaret Thatcher. Reader I, though a Tory in theory, was one of them.

Their equivalents in New York hate Mr. Trump. In Budapest the same sort of people hate Mr. Orban, in Milan they hate Mr. Salvini and in Warsaw....

So it was very stupid of Boris to have agreed to take part in a BBC debate, especially one over which Emily Maitlis presided. She struggled to contain her annoyance at him for refusing to let her interrupt him.

if you want to see her politics, click on the extraordinarily hostile and outrageously rude grilling she gave the Hungarian Foreign Minister, who had the temerity to say to her

“We want to keep Hungary a Hungarian country and we don’t think that multiculturalism is by definition good.”

Sky News is as bad. Sky’s political editor, Beth Rigby, said to Boris (note they were statements not questions):

“You brandish your Brexit credentials, but many of your colleagues worry about your character.

“You brought shame on your party when you described veiled Muslim women as letterboxes and bank robbers. 

“People who have worked closely with you do not think you’re fit to be prime minister.”

Scarcely impartial. She then pinned the tweet to her Twitter feed (meaning it stays at the top of her tweets).

The interviewer on Radio Four this morning attacked the Education Minister Nadhim Zahawi with real and prolonged fury because he had moved from supporting Dominic Raab to supporting Boris. 

The interviewer complained that Boris had scarcely allowed himself to be interviewed. No wonder.

No-one who hear it could have failed to see that in England many in the mainstream media are activists rather than journalists. This is much more true in the USA than in Great Britain, but true in my country too.

It is very stupid of the Tory party to allow this divisive election to drag on for weeks when speed is vital. And stupid of Sajid Javid to let some plant in the audience bounce him into calling for an investigation into lslampohobia in his party. He looked like an identity politician and therefore not a Tory.

This is now about the media versus Boris. But it is also about the astonishing power of the media. Journalists like passionate globalist Robert Peston, and all the rest, use it to force the candidates to take positions on issues, like the Irish border for example, which should remain constructively ambiguous if a negotiated outcome is to be possible. 

Borisophobia and a debate that should not have happened

"Think of it as Westminster’s answer to the World Cup third-place play-off." (Charlie Cooper in Politico)

The mainstream media is in steep decline in many ways, thanks to the internet which provides a sort of free speech and makes publishing virtually free. This is a good thing, obviously. On the other hand, the legacy media's power to coerce people was never greater. In Britain at least.

I was angered by the way in which the BBC, Sky News and the papers have criticised and ridiculed Boris Johnson for not taking part in the debate on (the notoriously left-wing) Channel Four yesterday.

Channel 4 left an empty lectern in the middle of the stage, which is not really the way an impartial publicly funded channel should behave. But the media has a tremendous feeling of entitlement.

I completely agree, for once, with James Cleverley, the Conservative Party Chairman and himself a candidate who stood down, who tweeted

This #C4Debate is geared up to encourage @Conservatives leadership candidates to knock chunks out of each other. That’s not how this campaign should be conducted.

Lukewarm about climate change

In the 1980s I detested Margaret Thatcher and in the 1990s disliked the Thatcherites. That's why I sort of accepted John Major's arguments in favour of the Maastricht Treaty. 

Naturally I am ashamed of this mistake but I also find that, nice though Ken Clarke and Rory Stewart are, they have very mistaken opinions on a huge number of things. While 'the bastards' as John Major called his three opponents in the Cabinet, are right about many things. 

Lord (Peter) Lilley was one of those three, along with John Redwood and Michael Portillo, who, a Lib Dem friend recently said to me, would make a good Prime Minister now. 

Peter Lilley was among just five MPs to vote against the Climate Change Act in the House of Commons in 2008. He says in the most recent Spectator podcast that climate change is happening, human activity contributes to it, but its effect will be to raise world temperatures by half a degree, which is negligible. The melting of the polar ice caps is a huge thing, but is not expected to happen for millenia.