Saturday 19 February 2022

Russia might now intervene in Ukraine. Only Putin knows, unless he has not decided.

I said that Russia would not invade Ukraine a few days ago but things have changed. Then she did not have enough troops in place (so people who know say) and had made no attempt to prepare Russian public for an invasion. Now they more troops at the border, despite saying they were reducing the number, and the media in Russia is talking of provocations. Tass thinks there will be a war. One started by Ukraine. I think we can no longer know. Either only Putin knows or even he has not decided.

I can't imagine he would be so stupid as to seize Kiev and most of Ukraine

It would achieve everything he most wants to avoid.

But an intervention in Donbass or Lugansk is possible. 

Or the mercenaries of the Wagner Group could do something deniable.

Or this stand-off could continue for years. 

It serves some purposes for Putin. 

Der Spiegel reported yesterday that US political scientist Joshua Shifrinson found a note in the British archives, revealed under the 30 year rule, supports the Russian claim that the West violated promises made in 1990 to limit NATO's eastward expansion. "We have made it clear that we will not expand NATO beyond the Elbe," wrote German diplomat Jürgen Chrobog of a March 1991 meeting of the United States, Britain, France and Germany. This document confirms Russia's view of eastward enlargement. A promise was made to the Russians which wasn't kept. Another promise not kept is that made by Russia to guarantee Ukraine when she foolishly gave up her thousands of atom bombs in 1992.

Whatever happens the European Union and the Nato alliance have been shown to be very disunited. 

An EU army after this? 

To do what?

Why doesn't the UK get out of a pointless military alliance and concentrate on trade?

1 comment:

  1. Remarks by the British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss that China could engage in military aggression in the Pacific, encouraged by Russia’s contingent moves against Ukraine, are nothing short of demented.

    Not simply irrational, demented.

    The underlying story is the government’s desperate promotion of Britain as a strategic partner of Australia in a policy of containment of China.

    The reality is Britain does not add up to a row of beans when it comes to East Asia. Britain took its main battle fleet out of East Asia in 1904 and finally packed it in with its ‘East of Suez’ policy in the 1970s. And it has never been back.

    Britain suffers delusions of grandeur and relevance deprivation.

    Paul Keating, the prime minister of Australia from 1991 to 1996.