Friday 24 March 2023

Who is the pawn? America, Ukraine or both?


The Ukrainian war a terrible mess, a big problem for Putin and the Americans, but both would lose face if they don't seem to win.

When I said I want Ukraine to win, what does win mean? 

Realistically I imagine the best result she can get is a ceasefire that hardens into a permanent de facto settlement, the territory she holds at present and all importantly Odessa and access to the Black Sea.

Perhaps she could liberate more territory but at what cost in blood and (American) treasure? If things go the way senior British officials expect according to Tom McTugh in Unherd she could lose Odessa and her coast.

If America operating via Ukraine did force the Russians back to the borders of January last year I wonder whether this would be a Pyrrhic victory. I very much doubt it will happen - Russia has a vastly bigger army than Ukraine - and would if it did would it take years?

In 2014 I hoped America would not get dragged into fighting a proxy war on Ukraine's behalf. Obama wisely did not do so. He was also careful not to give Ukraine lethal weapons. 

Trump did, in order he said to provide jobs for American workers but also because the American media was full of the baseless theory that he was being blackmailed by the Kremlin. 

Putin's bungled special military operation made a proxy war inevitable. 

We now know that North Korea and North Vietnam were not Soviet pawns. Soviet Russia was manipulated by Kim and Ho into supporting their wars, wars which were as much nationalistic as Marxist. The Marxist-Leninists' biggest mistake, it is clear now, was to think the nation was false consciousness.

But is America a pawn of Zelensky or Ukraine a pawn of the war party in Washington DC or are America and Ukraine pawns of the neo-cons?

Obama said when Russia came to her ally the Syrian government's aid that this would be Russia's Vietnam. It wasn't but will Ukraine be another Vietnam for the Americans? 

No, because American soldiers are not (as far as we are told) involved on the ground. 

Like South Vietnam's, Ukraine's cause is just. That's a similarity. 

A big difference is that Russia is not a Communist country theoretically intent on making the world Communist. 

Why then is America involved? Because she now sees her role as protecting the world order everywhere. That hubris will lead to a fall.

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