Monday 7 March 2022

Fog of war

Many very clever people think that if the war goes on a Russian victory is inevitable. Many clever people think Ukraine is doing much better and Russia much worse than could have been expected.

I strongly suspect both points of view are true.

Russia can presumably win at the price of an enormous number of deaths, but this would be a Pyrrhic victory.

In fact a Pyrrhic victory is all Russia can hope for, now. 

Or a deal.

If Ukraine fights on to the death it will be very bad indeed for Ukraine. I hope that an armistice can be signed, posited on Ukraine remining neutral between Russia and the EU/Nato. 

Putin suggested this today, plus recognising Russian annexation of the Crimes, Donetsk and Lugansk. 

I hope a deal is made as soon as possible.

Romanians are much more cynical than the English and several have told me they think America wanted this war.

Michael Clarke, the former director general of the Royal United Services Institute (Chatham House), is a very clever man. I heard him speak at the Ion Rațiu centenary celebration Turda in Transylvania three years ago. Apart from his low opinion of Donald Trump (he thought it was like having a New York cabbie as president, which seemed a positive thing to me) which was only to be expected from the RUSI, he said many things I thought true and others I disagreed with that were well worth hearing. He believes Putin is "finished". 

"We have to think about what happens next," he told BBC Radio 4's The World Tonight. 

I think so to, for what my opinion is worth. As I expected Putin not to invade, perhaps not that much.

1 comment:

  1. What is happening is, Russia is rebelling against GloboCap, and, unlike the other rebellious parties that GloboCap has been dealing with recently, Russia has thermonuclear weapons.

    I’m not trying to tell you who to root for. Root for GloboCap if you want. I’m just urging you, before you fly over to “Kyiv” and join the fight against the Putin-Nazis, or make a jackass of yourself on the Internet shrieking for nuclear Armageddon, or fire-bomb your local Russian restaurant, or beat the crap out of some Russian-looking person, to maybe take a moment or two and try to understand what is actually going on, and who the major players actually are, and where GloboCap’s efforts to “clear and hold” the entire planet are inexorably taking us.

    I know, that’s a lot to ask these days, but I can’t help thinking about all those nukes, and the fallibility of human beings, and yes, all the non-Nazi Ukrainians who are going to needlessly suffer and die while we watch the action on TV, and root for our favorite characters to win, and so on … as if it were a fucking movie.