Friday 17 June 2022

British Chief of Defence Staff thinks Russia is doing badly

British Chief of Defence Staff Admiral Sir Anthony 'Tony' Radakin said that Russia may achieve "tactical successes" in the next weeks, but the idea that the war had been a success was "nonsense". "President Putin has used about 25 per cent of his army's power to gain a tiny amount of territory and 50,000 people either dead or injured." We shall see what we shall see. What I fear is a long drawn out war that destroys Ukraine, as Anglo-American intervention destroyed Iraq and Libya. I do not want another cold war. The original one was unnecessary and could have led to world war. I do think that Russia under Vladimir Putin must always be a pariah. I did think that sanctions must remain in force after peace is made, but it looks now that sanctions will probably cause a world recession. So far they are hurting the UK and Europe west of Ukraine worse than they hurt Russia. So let's hope for a swift peace and an end to most of the sanctions imposed since the invasion.


  1. I was struck by the phrase "Europe east of Ukraine". Do you mean Russia, Asia and the Middle East?

    1. Thank you for pointing out where Homer nodded. West of Ukraine, of course.

  2. " was apparent from the first action that Moscow focused on the destruction of Ukrainian forces, not on the occupation of cities or the capture of Ukrainian territory west of the Dnieper River"

    Once Ukrainian forces immobilized themselves in static defensive positions inside urban areas and the central Donbas, the Ukrainian position was hopeless. But this development was portrayed as failure by the Russians to gain “their objectives.”

    Ground-combat forces that immobilize soldiers in prepared defenses will be identified, targeted, and destroyed from a distance. When persistent overhead intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance assets, whether manned or unmanned, are linked to precision guided-strike weapons or modern artillery systems informed by accurate targeting data, “holding ground” is fatal to any ground force. This is all the more true in Ukraine, because it was apparent from the first action that Moscow focused on the destruction of Ukrainian forces, not on the occupation of cities or the capture of Ukrainian territory west of the Dnieper River.

    The result has been the piecemeal annihilation of Ukrainian forces. Only the episodic infusion of U.S. and allied weapons kept Kiev’s battered legions in the field; legions that are now dying in great numbers thanks to Washington’s proxy war.

    Kiev’s war with Moscow is lost. Ukrainian forces are being bled white. Trained replacements do not exist in sufficient numbers to influence the battle, and the situation grows more desperate by the hour. No amount of U.S. and allied military aid or assistance short of direct military intervention by U.S. and NATO ground forces can change this harsh reality.

    The problem today is not ceding territory and population to Moscow in Eastern Ukraine that Moscow already controls. The future of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions along with the Donbas is decided. Moscow is also likely to secure Kharkov and Odessa, two cities that are historically Russian and Russian-speaking, as well as the territory that adjoins them. These operations will extend the conflict through the summer. The problem now is how to stop the fighting.

    Whether the fighting stops in the early fall will depend on two key factors. The first involves the leadership in Kiev. Will the Zelensky government consent to the Biden program for perpetual conflict with Russia?

    The second factor involves Washington itself. Having poured more than $60 billion or a little more than $18 billion a month in direct or indirect transfers into a Ukrainian state that is now crumbling, the important question is, what happens to millions of Ukrainians in the rest of the country that did not flee? And where will the funds come from to rebuild Ukraine’s shattered society in a developing global economic emergency?

    When The Lies Come Home
    After lying for months, the media are preparing the public for Ukraine’s military collapse.
    Douglas Macgregor, Col. (ret.)
    JUNE 17, 2022

    1. Thank you. I haven't seen his analysis since March. He does sound plausible. I think Russia is winning and I do fear many American foreign policy establishment want a prolonged war. That destroy Ukraine.

    2. Contrary to Washington’s triumphalist pronouncements, Russia is winning the war, Ukraine has lost the war. Any longer-term damage to Russia is open to debate.

      American sanctions against Russia have turned out to be far more devastating to Europe than to Russia. The global economy has slowed and many developing nations face serious food shortages and risk of broad starvation.

      There are already deep cracks in the European façade of so-called “NATO unity.” Western Europe will increasingly rue the day that it blindly followed the American Pied Piper to war against Russia. Indeed, this is not a Ukrainian-Russian war but an American-Russian war fought by proxy to the last Ukrainian.

      Contrary to optimistic declarations, NATO may in fact ultimately emerge weakened. Western Europeans will think long and hard about the wisdom and deep costs of provoking deeper long term confrontations with Russia or other “competitors”of the US.

      Graham E. Fuller, former Vice Chair of the National Intelligence Council at CIA with responsibility for global intelligence estimates

    3. Very interesting and very different from what the newspapers and TV channels say.

  3. 'to gain a tiny amount of territory '

    20% of 603,628 square km. The size of England.

  4. Exactly. You seem to have exploded Sir A. Rankin's case with aplomb.

  5. I would guess that a few highly placed US Democrats are skimming the money sent to Ukraine and that spent on arms contracts, and that's the main reason for prolonging the war.