John Mearsheimer's latest lecture: 'The causes and consequences of the Ukraine war', given 16 June 2022

I regret my eighteen years without television. A short news bulletin from, say, the dreary Euronews would have kept me better informed. But starting my day with BBC propaganda is bad for the soul, I decided. In fact all TV is bad for the soul, for several reasons.

Thanks to the wonders of technology I can get YouTube on my new telly and so I watched John Mearsheimer's latest lecture on Ukraine. I recommend you do too. It's here and not very long.

(By the way, like most American academics he's a left-wing Democrat. He likes Sanders.)

If watching a talk is too time consuming, I made a note of some points

Ukraine is already badly damaged and faces much more damage. 

The war will last months or years and is effectively war between America and Russia.

Russia will not give up her territorial gains or the Ukrainian ports (unless presumably forced to do so by Ukraine).

Biden started sending large amounts of armaments to Ukraine when he took office in January 2021.

"There is a serious possibility that one side will begin to lose badly." 

If Russia does so she may use nuclear weapons. Nato planned to do this if they were losing badly in West Germany.

The war will poison international relations for years to come.

Nato countries are united for now but conflicts are likely to emerge.

"The United States and its allies are mainly responsible for this train wreck." 

Bush 2 began the course of events that culminated in the present war at the Nato conference in Bucharest in 2008, when he said Nato would be extended to Ukraine and Georgia, but all three of his successors are also responsible. 

"The tragic truth is that had the United States not pursued the goal of Nato expansion Crimea would still be Ukrainian." 

Do I agree? 

Yes. Ever since I started reading Professor Mearsheimer fifteen or so years ago I have pretty much always agreed with him. 

He said in 2014 that he has a 19th century mind and that when he goes to China or Russia he's among 'my people' because they have 19th century minds too, unlike in Washington DC where they have 21st century minds. 

I have a 19th century mind and studied 19th century wars at university, which is why I think he is right. 

However the people at the top in Moscow all have 19th century minds, yet were astonished by the invasion of Ukraine and thought it a terrible mistake. 

From this it is fair to say that Professor Mearsheimer explains the invasion and American responsibility for it but more responsibility rests with Vladimir Putin.  To explain all is never to pardon all.

I think that had no move been made to extend Nato to Ukraine problems might well still have arisen, but not a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Instead of this intelligent analysis, my newspaper today has a British general saying that this is 'our 1937 moment'. This makes a change as it is normally always 1938.

Come to think of it, astute diplomacy could possibly have prevented the Second World War.